2023 UK Local Elections

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1654491593531879426

wow that is quite the upset. I don't think anyone was expecting this.

[Torrain]

Conservatives had about 780 more councillors than Labour at the start of the evening. The gap now stands at 66.

It looks like Labour about to overtake, and control a plurality of seats for the first time in over 20 years.

[jaichind]

Conservatives had about 780 more councillors than Labour at the start of the evening. The gap now stands at 66.

It looks like Labour about to overtake, and control a plurality of seats for the first time in over 20 years.

Is that not pretty impressive for the CON since they have been in power since 2010?

[JimJamUK]

Conservatives had about 780 more councillors than Labour at the start of the evening. The gap now stands at 66.

It looks like Labour about to overtake, and control a plurality of seats for the first time in over 20 years.

And that’s quite an achievement given urban areas (where Labour tend to do better) usually have multiple times the number of voters per councillor.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives had about 780 more councillors than Labour at the start of the evening. The gap now stands at 66.

It looks like Labour about to overtake, and control a plurality of seats for the first time in over 20 years.

And that’s quite an achievement given urban areas (where Labour tend to do better) usually have multiple times the number of voters per councillor.

It's been brought up may times by commentators and Labour MPs who go on the news channels that historically the opposition party has taken the lead in overall councilors not too long before National government flips.

[Logical]

Greens gain Mid Suffolk!!!

[JimJamUK]

Ominous reports about another Green collapse in Brighton. In better news, they’ve become the largest party in the Forest of Dean (whose politics cannot be understood by outsiders).

[Oryxslayer]

Dover is reportedly a Labour flip. Which just begs further questions about what the rest of coastal Kent/Thames Estuary looks like. Dartford is the most lofty target, but it doesn't seem out of reach...


23 Tory Losses in Central Bedfordshire, mostly to Indies who were the groups best positioned for gains.

[Torrain]

Dover is reportedly a Labour flip. Which just begs further questions about what the rest of coastal Kent/Thames Estuary looks like. Dartford is the most lofty target, but it doesn't seem out of reach...

Labour flipping Dover would be big. It’s the sort of Blair-Cameron seat I wasn’t sure would flip back.

And it’s a rather symbolic indictment of the Tories approach to immigration…

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Kinda wondering how long the British far-right is going to remain electorally collapsed, Reform and Reclaim seem to have flopped but all those BNP/UKIP voters didn't just vanish.

[JimJamUK]

Labour flipping Dover would be big. It’s the sort of Blair-Cameron seat I wasn’t sure would flip back.

And it’s a rather symbolic indictment of the Tories approach to immigration…

Quite a lot of it post-industrial/urban working class, so was always more winnable that it’s reputation, but yeah, if the people who are most annoyed at the current immigration policy are switching to Labour, it rather begs the question who the government thinks it will appeal to…

[Oryxslayer]

Lib-Dems win a majority in Mid-Devon with 21 Gains(!) off the Tories and the Indies. We knew they had an advantage from the voter lists built during the by-election, but this is huge. It suggests their hope to hold the parliamentary seat is not misplaced.

[Logical]

We passed the 500 Tory losses mark in the BBC count with ~90 councils left to count.

[Oryxslayer]

Wealden falls to NOC with 26(!) Tory losses. Mostly to Lib Dems and Greens who combined have the majority. Tories have their worst result ever here.

Greens Largest Party in Folkstone & Hythe. Lab and them make big gains of the Tories, and have the combined majority.

Lab win back their majority in Gravesham on the Thames Estuary after defections, 22 Lab to 17 Con.

Labour majority in Erewash official, with 9 Tory losses and 7 Labour Gains at the moment.

[Torrain]

Labour have surpassed the Conservatives as the largest party of local government.

[Mike88]

Labour have surpassed the Conservatives as the largest party of local government.

I believe that the Tories were the largest party in local government since 2002, isn't that so?

[afleitch]

Greens Largest Party in Folkstone & Hythe. Lab and them make big gains of the Tories, and have the combined majority. .

But the wokerati...

[Torrain]

Labour have surpassed the Conservatives as the largest party of local government.

I believe that the Tories were the largest party in local government since 2002, isn't that so?

Aye:
 

[Oryxslayer]

13 Con losses in Chichester to Lib-Dems, flips control.

Dover flip official.

Stafford has big Tory losses just like the Morrlands, but they were divided between Greens and Labour.

Labour majority in West Lancaster.

Charnwood falls to NOC off Labour Gains, them and Greens have the majority.

[Oryxslayer]

Stockton-on-Tees is one of the few Tory bright spots - Labour didn't fall, but the Tories destroyed the Indie delegation.

[Oryxslayer]

Three results from the east: Broadland, East Suffolk, and Great Yarmouth all are go from Tory to NOC.
The first two saw big gains for all non-Tory parties, especially the Greens. East Anglia really is just good for the Greens. Yarmouth though is now essentially tied between Labour and Conservatives, with the few indies holding control.

[Blair]

Some thoughts.

1.) Labour are clearly doing v well in the areas they targeted; Swindon for example had a lot of attention and they performed a lot better than expected. There is a clear trend so far of the old New Labour marginals (seats they won in 97 and then lost in 2010) coming back to Labour after a decade of nothing- the thing that the Lobby & Westminster fails to understand is you don't need the same route to power you had in the last election (see Boris Johnson losing traditional southern marginals but winning seats like Leigh, Labour in 2017 winning Canterbury while doing awfully in Corby etc)

2.) Some of the swings in the area above do really suggest that large majorities could get overturned; I'm shamelessly stealing Al's point but he has said before how we're really not prepared for the breakdown in loyalty over the past 10 years and the huge swings this causes.

3.) The deal obviously isn't sealed for Labour; there are some areas where either the Conservatives are doing better than expected or Labour haven't seen the huge route they would have wanted to be confident of an effortless landslide. This isn't the win that Blair or Cameron but still a lot of the coverage has forgotten labour only need 290 odd seats to get Keir into No.10.

4.) Some of the media & Conservative cheerleaders just enjoy doing a 'well the Government are unpopular, but Labour are still shaky and will fall apart once people realise how good Rishi Sunak is'- its bizarre especially as there will be smart conservatives reading these results and the data who know it was bad.

4B.) Some people took their lines to take at what 6.30 this morning- every local elections we have this dance about needing to wait for the later results but never changes..

5.) Seems completely under covered (we don't talk about policy in UK politics- just vibes!) that the public realm being awful is clearly a factor; the police don't turn up, ambulances were taking days and everyone has seen their food shop go up by 20%. Not ideal for a Government that has been in power for 13 years and tanked the economy.

[Blair]

I'm also confused by the national forecasts; yes the Labour lead would for them ideally be bigger but all the evidence (by-elections, mayoral elections etc) show that the very large Liberal Democrat vote is prepared to vote tactically for Labour & vice versa.

An effective tactical voting game in England and a modest revival of seats in Scotland could mean they don't need the previously expected huge lead over the Conservatives.

[Logical]

Labour win a majority in Broxtowe and Mansfield, both key target seats.

[Blair]

Labour win a majority in Broxtowe and Mansfield, both key target seats.

Later is interesting as it has a soviet majority