Make a bold prediction about AZ.

[pppolitics]

It's going to be the 3 or 4 state to flip (after Michigan, Pennsylvania, and maybe Wisconsin).

There's a good chance that it's actually the tipping point state.

[pppolitics]

Trump wins AZ by 3 points. McSally was such an embarrassment.

McSally lost because she tied herself to Trump who is unpopular in Arizona

From the McSally campaign:

“A significant segment of the AZ GOP was hostile to the President,” it says. “In internal polling during the primary, President Trump never broke 80% favorability among Republican voters. A certain segment of AZ Republicans was outright hostile to President Trump, and was against the Kavanaugh appointment. This segment of moderate Republicans, especially woman, proved very difficult to bring home to a Republican candidate that supported President Trump and the confirmation of Justice Kavanaugh.”

[pppolitics]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

“Quite unpopular”

His approval was 52-47 in the state on Election Day 2018.
Trump’s National approval right now is the same as Clinton’s at this same point in 1994.
Clinton won the state.

Most of the state voted early.

McSally won the election day votes.

She got blow out of the water on early votes.

[pppolitics]

I think Arizona will be within 1 point of going democrat in 2020.

It would depend on the environment.

If 2020 is D+4 (Obama 2012), AZ probably flip.

If 2020 is D+2 (Clinton 2016), AZ probably not flip

If 2010 is D+7 (Obama 2012), AZ definitely flip

[pppolitics]

Do tell how exactly Arizona is a "fool's gold state"? Trump only won it by 3.5% and he is quite unpopular now.

We also just won four statewide races, including a Senate race. Also, NC is not a "true swing state" considering Mitt Romney carried it in 2012.

“Quite unpopular”

His approval was 52-47 in the state on Election Day 2018.
Trump’s National approval right now is the same as Clinton’s at this same point in 1994.
Clinton won the state.

Most of the state voted early.

McSally won the election day votes.

She got blow out of the water on early votes.

Still, 52-47 is a 5 point margin. Not even possible for Dems to win if he maintains this approval from this exit poll.

Trump doesn't have a 52-47 approval rating.

Election day voters are much more Republican than early voters.

[pppolitics]

Sinema built a coalition of independents and moderate republicans. The exit poll for ED voters show she won 10% of voters who approve of Trump. (Despite all this, she didn’t even manage to get a majority, even in a D+9 national environment). Compare this to 2016, with a R+1 Congress. When considering the national margin change from 2016-2018, AZ actually trended Republican LMAO

Also, senate elections don’t always correspond with presidential elections. (Imo, I’m pretty sure Trump will win West Virginia even though Manchin won it in 2018.)

Oh, then how did Kathy Hoffman and Katie Hobbs won?

It must be pretty had to keep up your mental gymnastics.

[pppolitics]

Mark my words. Trump will win Arizona in 2020.

Are you suggesting that everybody bookmark this?

[pppolitics]

Mark my words. Trump will win Arizona in 2020.

Are you suggesting that everybody bookmark this?

Yes.

And what are you proposing if you are wrong?

[pppolitics]

Mark my words. Trump will win Arizona in 2020.

Are you suggesting that everybody bookmark this?

Yes.

And what are you proposing if you are wrong?

A one week ban

Sure, I’m good with that.

I CAN GUARANTEE YOU WITH 100% CERTAINTY THAT TRUMP WILL DO EVEN BETTER IN ARIZONA THAN HE DID IN 2016

If you are wrong: one week ban for each of you, starting right after the election.

[pppolitics]

I've touched upon this before. But unless something really negative happens or unless it's someone from Arizona or Texas, Arizona will likely stay Republican.

That really negative thing is called "Donald Trump".

[pppolitics]

Holy s**t. 23% Yes to 76% No.

Y’all are delusional.

Not after Democrats won the overall majority in the House vote in 2018, picked up a Senate seat, and after so many bad approval polls for Trump.

Yes, I know... I know. The state has gone only once for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948, which is exactly what people were often thinking about Virginia in 2008 until about 11PM on Election Night. Lots of people are moving into Arizona from high-cost California, and the Hispanic vote is growing fast (with an allowance for double-counting). People bring their California voting habits to Arizona as they did to Colorado, and Trump has not been able to shake off bad vibes with Mexican-Americans.

A 2018-style electorate wins the Democratic nominee 295 or 296 electoral votes (the difference being ME-02) based on the combined vote for House seats in the states. House votes, unlike votes for Governors (nobody is going to conclude that Massachusetts or Vermont will go for Trump in 2020 because those states voted for Republican Governors who may offset the State legislatures) are voting on federal issues and know it.

The biggest federal issue for most Americans is now President Donald Trump.

Keep watching the statewide polls starting in January. Some polls indicate that only 35% to 40% of all voters want to re-elect Donald Trump. Republicans do, so he will not lose a primary challenge. This said, many conservatives (about 45% of the electorate is conservative enough that it will vote for the Democratic nominee except under the most freakish circumstances) will be amenable to some right-wing alternative to both Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee sure to be a liberal. Under even the best of circumstances (Obama 2008) is the Democrat going to get anywhere near 55% of the popular vote.

This said, a 50-40-10 split, the '10' going mostly to some Third Party or independent conservative, looks highly likely now.

How’d that work out in 2016? Gary got what, 3.5%?, which was split between both disenfranchised conservatives and liberals? McMullin? He couldn’t even break within 20 points of Trump in Utah. UTAH.

There is zero chance that a third party will have an impact on the race in 2020. Many of the third party voters were weary that Trump had no legislative experience, but now that he is president, lots of #NeverTrumpers are going to break for him in 2020.

And remember, 2018 was a D+9 year, and democrats only won Arizona by less than 2. Midterms are almost always horrible for the incumbent’s first term, yet most get re-elected.

Also, Arizona has a habit of electing “Mavericks”. For example, people who voted for Tom O’Halleran, (moderate dem from northern AZ) wouldn’t be so quick to vote for a coastal democrat in a nationwide presidential race.

In 2018, the Green candidate got 2.4% of the vote and there wasn’t a Libertarian candidate on the ballot.

That is unlikely to happen again in 2020.

[pppolitics]

Bold? The winner of Maricopa County will not win the state.

Here's scary math for you.

Maricopa County makes up 61.39% of the state.

Pima County makes up 14.58%

Coconino County makes up 2.01%

Apache County makes up 1.02%

Santa Cruz County makes up 0.66%

The last four are almost guaranteed to vote Democratic. If you add Maricopa County to that, that's 79.65% of the state.

[pppolitics]

It just might vote to left of Florida for the first time since 1988.

Looking at 2018, that’s more likely than not the case.