The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Derek]

California State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted May 12, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

42% Strongly approve
19% Somewhat approve
6% Somewhat disapprove
30% Strongly disapprove
3% Not sure

Approval only, as the effects of favorability and approval are easily normed:

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

38 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House. I have now recounted the likely electoral votes.

deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  164
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  20
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  18
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin   71
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 38  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are shown to be failures.

Where the hell are you getting your numbers? He'd never win SC.

[Derek]

Yep ^^ they are the best. Not to mention, they are the most conservative but I'm just saying, just saying. Maybe there's something to this conservatism. hmm.......

[Derek]

who has been reelected with a 44% approval rating since they started keeping track of that?

[Derek]

25% strongly approve

[Derek]

yea those polls vary. He could be at 49% tomorrow.

[Derek]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44% -1

Disapprove 55% +2


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +2.

Again, it could be a bad sample.

WORD!!!!!

[Derek]

He's right above where Bush is remembered at. There was a poll I saw showing that based on what ppl remember Bush was at 41% approval. Nice job Obama.

[Derek]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% +2

Disapprove 52% -1


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

What is a bad sample?

So I guess it was a bad sample for the last few days.

I disapprove, I am really disappointed (to say the least) at his response to this oil spill.

[Derek]

where are ppl getting the add 10 points to the approval? Just for the sake of doing it?

[Derek]

Anyone see how 43% blame Obama and 48% blame Bush. He's catching up.

[Derek]

He can't get above 50% because he has the image of a politician who talks street.

[Derek]

Did you guys see him at 48% in Maine?

[Derek]

He's at 49% in Michigan now. I have no idea how and it will always boggle me why a state that has an unemployment rate in the 20's is anywhere close to 50% approval for the sitting president. It completely confuses the hell out of me and I'm not sure I'll ever be able to understand. Yes I know there's more to life than having a good economy, but what else does Michigan have to be happy about?

[Derek]

He's at 49% in Michigan now. I have no idea how and it will always boggle me why a state that has an unemployment rate in the 20's is anywhere close to 50% approval for the sitting president. It completely confuses the hell out of me and I'm not sure I'll ever be able to understand. Yes I know there's more to life than having a good economy, but what else does Michigan have to be happy about?

the economy of the state is also of the responsability of the governor. And her popularity is low. Obama is not responsable for the specific problem of Michigan.

Yes I know but if the people weren't smart enough to not blame Bush for it then why are they smart enough not to blame Obama for it?

[Derek]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 42% -3.

Disapprove 57% , +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +3.

This substantial drop might be a just a bad sample.  It represent Obama's lowest Approve and highest Disapprove number as well the the greatest negative gap between Approve and Strongly Disapprove.  Both his "Strongly" numbers are maintaining the same range.

If this is a bad sample, we should see it drop out by no later than Saturday.

That speech last night may have been the nail in the coffin. People could see right through him.

[Derek]

(parody material)

Based on what?  The last time Obama ran for reelection?  Bush was at the mid-50s at reelection, he didn't win in the mid-60s.  But you know, Republicans don't see boosts only Democrats do.  Add 5% for Democrats being polled, subtract 5% for Republicans, right?

First of all, prbower2a is Vanderblubb, who has frequently parodied me.  Vanderblubb is a gadfly to be ignored. I do not endorse his mock-extremist rhetoric.

Second, I have set my own rules for my set of maps. I base my prediction of how a politician will do if running a re-election campaign based on the observation by Nate Silver at the reputable www.fivethirtyeight.com -- that incumbents ordinarily gain about 6% support (interpreted as "vote shares")  in the last few months of a campaign. An incumbent with an approval rating of 44% in a gubernatorial or senatorial race a few months before the election has about a 50% chance of winning. Silver suggests that 44% is also the borderline for a 50% chance of winning the Presidential election nationwide. But I am going on a state-by-state basis, and I assume that winning a state is much like winning by a governor or Senator who has a statewide election.

Third, this is MY model, and I have the prerogative to do with it what I want.  If anything I mute the effect for states in which the President is above 46% (in which he is less likely to see a need to campaign in a state) or below 40% (in which he has no real chance of winning) in an approval rating. The 2008 election showed Barack Obama cutting down on his efforts to win a state when he was down by more than 10% (effort would be futile) or by more than 10% (in which case such effort would be wasteful of resources better used elsewhere).  I expect much the same in 2012 if the election is at least as close as the election of 2008 -- either way.

That is the only way in which President Obama could have won by such large margins as he did in some states and lose so badly in others and win most of the close states.  

Fourth, I have found myself judging few polls. Whatever bias Rasmussen has, his polls seem consistent enough. For some states, polls can jump wildly (look at South Dakota) -- polling is not a perfect science. So who are you to claim that this poll of Tennessee isn't valid?  The state hasn't been polled since February, so what would I know? What do you know?

Fifth, I have stated that I consider the Tennessee poll a surprise, especially in view of the poor and even execrable approval ratings for the President in Arkansas and Kentucky, states that I would consider likely to be most like Tennessee in voting in 2008.  If Rasmussen shows Obama with a 38% approval rating then Tennessee goes orange or even brown on my approval map and deep blue on my prediction map. Sure, Rasmussen might have a bad sample -- one that perhaps has too many people from Greater Memphis. Such can happen, at least in theory.

Sixth, although most of us can reasonably predict who the Democratic nominee for President will be in 2012 (even that involves some assumptions) we have little idea who the Republican nominee will be that year. Without question, Mike Huckabee would do far better against Obama in Tennessee than would, let's say, Rudy Giuliani. No fooling!  

Keep dreaming. Bush could have very easily been voted out of office with a 53% approval rating the night he was reelected. Don't forget that Obama can win the popular vote and still win the election.

[Derek]

Did you guys see him at only 54% in New York. He would lose California with that kind of approval rating trend.

[Derek]

As if anyone thinks that the election of 2012 will hinge upon North Dakota:

   North Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 15-16, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    21% Strongly approve
    20% Somewhat approve
    11% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

43 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.

deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  169
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 169
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65  

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.

44% approval will get you 44% of the vote. Independents and swing voters don't vote for someone they don't approve of. 49% is dependent upon the voter turnout. Any lower than 40% and you're looking at the president doing better because people in his party will still vote for him. Bush was almost voted out of office at 53%.

[Derek]

I really think all he has to do is stay above 45-46%.  His approvals are going to go up when he starts campaigning for reelection.  He's a very savvy politician and he's good representing himself on the campaign trail. 

I disagree, i don't think Obama's campaigning will boost his numbers much, if at all.  As the incumbent president, he has to run on his record/deliverables rather than his promises, which judging by his rather lackluster Oil leak speech, is not his strong suit.  "Hope and Change" doesn't work so well as a campaigning platform when you've been running things for the last 4 years.  To put it another way, if a president with supposedly the best message system ever can't convince a majority of the population that his policies are good now, what makes you think he'll be able to do it in a year and a half?

Also, i find it odd that so many people here think that Obama hasn't started seriously campaigning yet.  He's made more than one speech/public appearance a day by my last count, and it's becoming more and more appropriate to refer to his administration as "The Permanent Campaign."  What do you think Obama would do differently from what he's already doing that would make his numbers go up and why isn't he doing that now?

If anything his campaigning would backfire and give the GOP red meat to blast Obama with.

[Derek]

Those democrats are doing so badly. Obama is down to 45% nationally and even as low as 51% in Washington. Patty Murray is in trouble and now tied with Dino Rossi at 47%. Haven't those 2 run against each other before?

[Derek]

KY update. Rand Paul has slipped badly in his Senate race.

By...Conway gaining 1 point?  The May result was the obvious outlier, he's been holding pretty steady the whole time so far.

He'll lose though. It's not like he's running against Harry Reid's son.

[Derek]

http://

Here are the latest polls I've seen done in each state.

Alabama 40-58
Alaska
Arizona 39-60
Arkansas 37-61
California 59-39
Colorado 42-53
Connecticut 56-43
Delaware 54-46
Florida 46-54
Georgia 41-57
Hawaii 70-29
Idaho 30-69
Illinois 53-41
Indiana 41-58
Iowa 50-48
Kansas 37-62
Kentucky 41-58
Louisiana 37-57
Maine 48-51
Maryland 59-40
Massachusetts 56-43
Michigan 49-51
Minnesota 53-45
Missouri 47-53
Mississippi 38-62
Montana 38-62
Nebraska 42-57
Nevada 48-52
New Hampshire 50-50
New Jersey 49-51
New Mexico 48-52
New York 54-44
North Carolina 42-57
North Dakota 41-58
Ohio 42-57
Oklahoma 38-62
Oregon 49-48
Pennsylvania 48-52
Rhode Island 55-45
South Carolina 42-57
South Dakota 41-57
Tennessee 42-57
Texas 40-60
Utah 30-70
Vermont 66-32
Virginia 42-57
Washington 51-48
West Virginia 37-61
Wisconsin 49-50
Wyoming 30-70

[Derek]

He's at 47% in my state. What are his numbers in your states?

[Derek]

MD (Magellan Strategies)

48% Approve
43% Disapprove

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 752N autodial survey of likely general election voters in the state of Maryland. The interviews were conducted June 29th, 2010. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.57% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, and 2004 election cycles.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-Maryland-Governor-Survey-Release-070110.pdf

Sanity returns to my home state?

WOW

[Derek]

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)

Rasmussen is more accurate because it collects a proportional amount of voters.