The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5125 on: June 20, 2010, 12:58:59 PM »

Rasmussen (June 20)Sad

43% Approve (+1)
57% Disapprove (nc)

28% Strongly Approve (+3)
44% Strongly Disapprove (-1)

Obama SURGEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

There`s also a surge @ Gallup today:

48% Approve (+3)
45% Disapprove (-1)
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Zacoftheaxes
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« Reply #5126 on: June 20, 2010, 01:22:52 PM »

It seems whenever the CEO of BP makes himself look like more of an a-hole, Obama gets a break.
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change08
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« Reply #5127 on: June 20, 2010, 01:56:41 PM »

It seems whenever the CEO of BP makes himself look like more of an a-hole, Obama gets a break.

Well yeah, people aren't stupid. Even though people know his address was awful, they know this isn't all the president's fault.
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Smid
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« Reply #5128 on: June 20, 2010, 08:39:49 PM »

AR, TX, & NY


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Maine needs to be a "6" on your map I think ...
I keep on trying t type in 6 but every time it just shows up as 4

Try using a map from before Nebraska and Maine split their EVs... I think you have to go back to the 1960s, but for maps from back there, you can change the number for Nebraska and Maine.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5129 on: June 20, 2010, 09:40:21 PM »

It seems whenever the CEO of BP makes himself look like more of an a-hole, Obama gets a break.

President Obama got burned by trusting the first statements of BP executives, but not as badly as BP executives burned themselves.

Expect Congressional hearings.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5130 on: June 21, 2010, 08:29:58 AM »
« Edited: June 21, 2010, 04:26:02 PM by pbrower2a »

As if anyone thinks that the election of 2012 will hinge upon North Dakota:

   North Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 15-16, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    21% Strongly approve
    20% Somewhat approve
    11% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure

or Oregon:

Oregon Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 17, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

       32% Strongly approve
       17% Somewhat approve
         9% Somewhat disapprove
       39% Strongly disapprove
         3% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

43 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  169
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 169
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.



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J. J.
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« Reply #5131 on: June 21, 2010, 09:08:13 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% +2.

Disapprove 55% , -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

This is the first time in six days that Approve is higher than Strongly Disapprove.

Obama's Strongly Approve numbers has been increasing over the past two day, but it might be a bad sample; if so, they should drop on Wednesday.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5132 on: June 21, 2010, 10:45:46 AM »

AR, TX, & NY


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

Maine needs to be a "6" on your map I think ...
I keep on trying t type in 6 but every time it just shows up as 4

Try using a map from before Nebraska and Maine split their EVs... I think you have to go back to the 1960s, but for maps from back there, you can change the number for Nebraska and Maine.

Try using the 2008 map in which Maine and Nebraska are separated by district. The vote within electoral districts may be much the same in Maine -- but not Nebraska. Maine is not going to give any electoral vote to any Republican nominee except in an electoral blowout, in which case the whole state would almost certainly go Republican.

NE-01, consisting of eastern Nebraska except for Greater Omaha, voted much like Texas in 2008 (firm McCain victory).

NE-02, most of Greater Omaha, voted like Indiana in 2008 (bare Obama victory).

The state as a whole votes much like Kansas, which would vote for a Democratic nominee only if the Republican is a stark raving lunatic or a sexual offender.

NE-03, central and western Nebraska, is one of the most conservative districts in the US, and it voted like Wyoming (one of the strongest McCain victories). NE-03 goes for Obama in 2012 only in a 538-EV victory for him.  You saw that right.

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Derek
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« Reply #5133 on: June 21, 2010, 12:02:05 PM »

As if anyone thinks that the election of 2012 will hinge upon North Dakota:

   North Dakota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 15-16, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

    21% Strongly approve
    20% Somewhat approve
    11% Somewhat disapprove
    47% Strongly disapprove
      1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

43 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  169
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 169
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.





44% approval will get you 44% of the vote. Independents and swing voters don't vote for someone they don't approve of. 49% is dependent upon the voter turnout. Any lower than 40% and you're looking at the president doing better because people in his party will still vote for him. Bush was almost voted out of office at 53%.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #5134 on: June 21, 2010, 02:23:37 PM »

I really think all he has to do is stay above 45-46%.  His approvals are going to go up when he starts campaigning for reelection.  He's a very savvy politican and he's good representing himself on the campaign trail. 

His image is being defined by the media and talking points right now.  Example: "Oh noes!  Is BP Obama's Katrina?"..... I could go on for days about how stupid that statement is but unfortunately many Americans are stupid enough to take it seriously.   
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Dgov
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« Reply #5135 on: June 21, 2010, 06:33:06 PM »

I really think all he has to do is stay above 45-46%.  His approvals are going to go up when he starts campaigning for reelection.  He's a very savvy politician and he's good representing himself on the campaign trail. 

I disagree, i don't think Obama's campaigning will boost his numbers much, if at all.  As the incumbent president, he has to run on his record/deliverables rather than his promises, which judging by his rather lackluster Oil leak speech, is not his strong suit.  "Hope and Change" doesn't work so well as a campaigning platform when you've been running things for the last 4 years.  To put it another way, if a president with supposedly the best message system ever can't convince a majority of the population that his policies are good now, what makes you think he'll be able to do it in a year and a half?

Also, i find it odd that so many people here think that Obama hasn't started seriously campaigning yet.  He's made more than one speech/public appearance a day by my last count, and it's becoming more and more appropriate to refer to his administration as "The Permanent Campaign."  What do you think Obama would do differently from what he's already doing that would make his numbers go up and why isn't he doing that now?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5136 on: June 21, 2010, 07:05:54 PM »

I really think all he has to do is stay above 45-46%.  His approvals are going to go up when he starts campaigning for reelection.  He's a very savvy politician and he's good representing himself on the campaign trail. 

I disagree, i don't think Obama's campaigning will boost his numbers much, if at all.  As the incumbent president, he has to run on his record/deliverables rather than his promises, which judging by his rather lackluster Oil leak speech, is not his strong suit.  "Hope and Change" doesn't work so well as a campaigning platform when you've been running things for the last 4 years.  To put it another way, if a president with supposedly the best message system ever can't convince a majority of the population that his policies are good now, what makes you think he'll be able to do it in a year and a half?

One speech almost never makes or breaks a Presidency unless it is so blatant as Richard M. Nixon 's preposterous "Your President is not a crook"...which is about whrn I decided that he was a crook. President Obama has plenty of time in which to recover from a weak speech. Conditions practically tied his... tongue.

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So define this Presidency if you so wish. If you call a tiger's tail a leg, then how many legs does a tiger have?

Four, Just because you call a tail a leg doesn't make it so.
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Derek
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« Reply #5137 on: June 21, 2010, 07:49:07 PM »

I really think all he has to do is stay above 45-46%.  His approvals are going to go up when he starts campaigning for reelection.  He's a very savvy politician and he's good representing himself on the campaign trail. 

I disagree, i don't think Obama's campaigning will boost his numbers much, if at all.  As the incumbent president, he has to run on his record/deliverables rather than his promises, which judging by his rather lackluster Oil leak speech, is not his strong suit.  "Hope and Change" doesn't work so well as a campaigning platform when you've been running things for the last 4 years.  To put it another way, if a president with supposedly the best message system ever can't convince a majority of the population that his policies are good now, what makes you think he'll be able to do it in a year and a half?

Also, i find it odd that so many people here think that Obama hasn't started seriously campaigning yet.  He's made more than one speech/public appearance a day by my last count, and it's becoming more and more appropriate to refer to his administration as "The Permanent Campaign."  What do you think Obama would do differently from what he's already doing that would make his numbers go up and why isn't he doing that now?

If anything his campaigning would backfire and give the GOP red meat to blast Obama with.
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Dgov
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« Reply #5138 on: June 21, 2010, 09:08:13 PM »

One speech almost never makes or breaks a Presidency unless it is so blatant as Richard M. Nixon 's preposterous "Your President is not a crook"...which is about whrn I decided that he was a crook. President Obama has plenty of time in which to recover from a weak speech. Conditions practically tied his... tongue.

So define this Presidency if you so wish. If you call a tiger's tail a leg, then how many legs does a tiger have?

Four, Just because you call a tail a leg doesn't make it so.

1.  I wasn't suggesting that this one speech would break his presidency, but that his mediocre performance in it suggests his famed oratorical skills might not carry into more concrete topics.

2.  What I mean is that the president doesn't exactly have much room to expand on the campaign front.  He's already been doing it quite a bit, and certainly more than his predecessors.  I just don't think that there's going to be much change between how he acts now and how he acts in late October 2012.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5139 on: June 21, 2010, 09:55:03 PM »

One speech almost never makes or breaks a Presidency unless it is so blatant as Richard M. Nixon 's preposterous "Your President is not a crook"...which is about whrn I decided that he was a crook. President Obama has plenty of time in which to recover from a weak speech. Conditions practically tied his... tongue.

So define this Presidency if you so wish. If you call a tiger's tail a leg, then how many legs does a tiger have?

Four, Just because you call a tail a leg doesn't make it so.

1.  I wasn't suggesting that this one speech would break his presidency, but that his mediocre performance in it suggests his famed oratorical skills might not carry into more concrete topics.


President Obama knows little about oil and oil drilling. He is not a trained engineer, and he can discuss political manifestations of the disaster. Some of the political attention may eventually go toward the government agencies that ostensibly regulate offshore oil drilling. If something was slipshod or corrupt in relationships between regulators and the regulated, then things could get interesting for the rest of us and unpleasant for those intimately involved.   


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But his appearances in the Gulf area seem to offer practically no potential for political gain. In 2008 he lost Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama in landslide. If he were playing politics he would be in Florida which was a battleground state in 2008 and figures critical in 2012 in anything but a landslide.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5140 on: June 21, 2010, 11:21:44 PM »

Out of all honesty, I think it's time we've had an engineer for president.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5141 on: June 21, 2010, 11:28:41 PM »

Out of all honesty, I think it's time we've had an engineer for president.

We had Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter. Both were good people, but poor Presidents, and one-term for good reason.

Law is for intellectual generalists; engineering is for intellectual specialists.  Generalists are almost always better managers.   
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5142 on: June 21, 2010, 11:31:04 PM »

Out of all honesty, I think it's time we've had an engineer for president.

We had Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter. Both were good people, but poor Presidents, and one-term for good reason.

Law is for intellectual generalists; engineering is for intellectual specialists.  Generalists are almost always better managers.   

Well true, but both were put into situations where it was near impossible to win their elections.  Hoover, I can say wasn't directly responsible for his predicament.  Carter on the other hand....well, I just wish he had more balls....
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J. J.
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« Reply #5143 on: June 22, 2010, 08:51:00 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46% +1.

Disapprove 53% , -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -2.

Either Obama has bounced back somewhat from last weeks lows or it's a very good Obama sample that will drop out tomorrow.




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Ameriplan
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« Reply #5144 on: June 22, 2010, 09:07:07 AM »

46% approval. All I can say is EPIC PWNED, BEYITCH.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5145 on: June 22, 2010, 12:58:02 PM »

WI (Rasmussen)Sad

49% Approve
51% Disapprove

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on June 21, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link

PA (PPP)Sad

43% Approve
50% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 609 Pennsylvania voters from June 19th to 21st. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PA_622.pdf

NY (Quinnipiac)Sad

55% Approve
39% Disapprove

From June 15 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,592 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 485 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1468
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5146 on: June 22, 2010, 01:17:46 PM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 01:22:54 PM by pbrower2a »

I can't recall what the average for PA would come out. Good news for Democrats: Joe Sestak has caught up with Pat Toomey in the Senate race.

Rasmussen concurs with PPP on Wisconsin.

Wisconsin State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 21, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

29% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
42% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

43 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  169
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  33
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 149
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  39
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  98
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 65
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......



The only swing state not yet accounted for is Virginia.




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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5147 on: June 22, 2010, 05:33:21 PM »

Surprising that Obama's numbers have been pretty stable still.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5148 on: June 23, 2010, 01:03:07 AM »

Virginia (Public Opinion Strategies (R) - Internal for Gov. Bob McDonnell)Sad

47% Approve
50% Disapprove

Gov. McDonnell (R)Sad

63% Approve
30% Disapprove

600 Likely Voters, June 13-15, MoE=4%

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/news/2010/jun/23/MCDO23-ar-229089/
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5149 on: June 23, 2010, 08:38:18 AM »

Rasmussen (June 23)Sad

48% Approve (+2)
51% Disapprove (-2)

28% Strongly Approve (-1)
41% Strongly Disapprove (-1)
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