The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1205251 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #5200 on: June 30, 2010, 08:39:45 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45 -3.

Disapprove 54% , +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +3.


A bad pro-Obama sample might be moving through the system.  This does not yet look like a big Obama drop.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5201 on: June 30, 2010, 10:37:20 AM »

KY (Rasmussen)Sad

41% Approve
58% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 28, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Link
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5202 on: June 30, 2010, 12:08:57 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2010, 12:24:18 AM by pbrower2a »

KY update. Rand Paul has slipped badly in his Senate race.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

45 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 139
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  63
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  92
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 49
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......





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fezzyfestoon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5203 on: June 30, 2010, 12:54:24 PM »

KY update. Rand Paul has slipped badly in his Senate race.

By...Conway gaining 1 point?  The May result was the obvious outlier, he's been holding pretty steady the whole time so far.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5204 on: June 30, 2010, 01:19:33 PM »

KY update. Rand Paul has slipped badly in his Senate race.

By...Conway gaining 1 point?  The May result was the obvious outlier, he's been holding pretty steady the whole time so far.

It didn't seem like an outlier at the time.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #5205 on: June 30, 2010, 01:36:23 PM »

Doesn't Rand Paul have his own thread?
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fezzyfestoon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5206 on: June 30, 2010, 02:19:33 PM »

KY update. Rand Paul has slipped badly in his Senate race.
By...Conway gaining 1 point?  The May result was the obvious outlier, he's been holding pretty steady the whole time so far.
It didn't seem like an outlier at the time.

Yes, it did.  Here are his Rasmussen leads so far:
8%
8%
15%
14%
9%
25%
8%
7%

An average of a 9% lead outside that one random burst.  Definitely a very clear outlier even at the time.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5207 on: June 30, 2010, 02:49:09 PM »

KY update. Rand Paul has slipped badly in his Senate race.
By...Conway gaining 1 point?  The May result was the obvious outlier, he's been holding pretty steady the whole time so far.
It didn't seem like an outlier at the time.

Yes, it did.  Here are his Rasmussen leads so far:
8%
8%
15%
14%
9%
25%
8%
7%

An average of a 9% lead outside that one random burst.  Definitely a very clear outlier even at the time.

It could also have been the post-nomination bounce. You who have called Rand Paul's large lead in May an outlier seem to be right -- and I am wrong.
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Derek
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« Reply #5208 on: June 30, 2010, 04:07:03 PM »

KY update. Rand Paul has slipped badly in his Senate race.

By...Conway gaining 1 point?  The May result was the obvious outlier, he's been holding pretty steady the whole time so far.

He'll lose though. It's not like he's running against Harry Reid's son.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5209 on: July 01, 2010, 12:18:46 AM »

OH (PPP)Sad

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 482 Ohio voters from June 26-27. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 4.5%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_630.pdf
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5210 on: July 01, 2010, 12:22:53 AM »

MO, OH,& KY


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5211 on: July 01, 2010, 12:27:10 AM »

Ohio Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 42%
Disapprove...................................................... 54%
Not Sure.......................................................... 4%



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

45 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 118
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  81
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  92
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 49
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #5212 on: July 01, 2010, 12:55:55 AM »

pbrower, 46 states have checked in.
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Derek
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« Reply #5213 on: July 01, 2010, 01:21:07 AM »

http://


Here are the latest polls I've seen done in each state.

Alabama 40-58
Alaska
Arizona 39-60
Arkansas 37-61
California 59-39
Colorado 42-53
Connecticut 56-43
Delaware 54-46
Florida 46-54
Georgia 41-57
Hawaii 70-29
Idaho 30-69
Illinois 53-41
Indiana 41-58
Iowa 50-48
Kansas 37-62
Kentucky 41-58
Louisiana 37-57
Maine 48-51
Maryland 59-40
Massachusetts 56-43
Michigan 49-51
Minnesota 53-45
Missouri 47-53
Mississippi 38-62
Montana 38-62
Nebraska 42-57
Nevada 48-52
New Hampshire 50-50
New Jersey 49-51
New Mexico 48-52
New York 54-44
North Carolina 42-57
North Dakota 41-58
Ohio 42-57
Oklahoma 38-62
Oregon 49-48
Pennsylvania 48-52
Rhode Island 55-45
South Carolina 42-57
South Dakota 41-57
Tennessee 42-57
Texas 40-60
Utah 30-70
Vermont 66-32
Virginia 42-57
Washington 51-48
West Virginia 37-61
Wisconsin 49-50
Wyoming 30-70
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5214 on: July 01, 2010, 08:56:55 AM »
« Edited: July 01, 2010, 10:15:19 AM by pbrower2a »

Arizona State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 29, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

         20% Strongly approve

         19% Somewhat approve

         11% Somewhat disapprove

         48% Strongly disapprove

          1% Not sure

Pennsylvania Survey of 500 Likely Voters

Conducted June 29, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

       26% Strongly approve

       21% Somewhat approve

       13% Somewhat disapprove

       40% Strongly disapprove

         1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

45 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 138
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  81
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  92
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 49
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


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J. J.
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« Reply #5215 on: July 01, 2010, 09:01:20 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44 -1.

Disapprove 55% , +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45, +2.


The pro-Obama sample has passed through the system.

Note that the Strongly Disapprove number is now higher than Approve.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5216 on: July 01, 2010, 09:28:13 AM »

I think to put this into perspective, Obama's Approve number has dropped 10 points from this time last year and his Disapprove numbers have increased by the same amount.  His Strongly Disapprove numbers have increased by 12 points.  His Strongly Approve numbers have dropped by 6 points.

The real collapse in his approval numbers did not start until late July 2009.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5217 on: July 01, 2010, 01:58:44 PM »

OR (Magellan Strategies)Sad

47% Approve
44% Disapprove

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 963N autodial survey of likely general election voters in the state of Oregon. The interviews were conducted June 28th, 2010. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.16% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008 and 2006 election cycles.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Magellan-Oregon-Governor-Survey-Release-063010.pdf
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Derek
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« Reply #5218 on: July 01, 2010, 07:09:52 PM »

He's at 47% in my state. What are his numbers in your states?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5219 on: July 02, 2010, 08:08:08 AM »

Ohio Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted June 29, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     

       31% Strongly approve

       17% Somewhat approve

         8% Somewhat disapprove

       44% Strongly disapprove

         1% Not sure



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

C* -- March 2010, after the passage of Health Care Reform legislation in the House.

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

45 states have checked in since HCR legislation was passed in the House.







deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  158
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  45
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 156
white                        too close to call  0
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  63
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  92
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 49
 

44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......


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J. J.
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« Reply #5220 on: July 02, 2010, 08:45:23 AM »
« Edited: July 04, 2010, 06:50:39 AM by J. J. »




Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45 +1.

Disapprove 55% , u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44, -1.


All numbers are within the "new normal."  The Strongly Disapprove is below Approve.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5221 on: July 02, 2010, 12:52:57 PM »

MD (Magellan Strategies)Sad

48% Approve
43% Disapprove

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 752N autodial survey of likely general election voters in the state of Maryland. The interviews were conducted June 29th, 2010. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.57% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, and 2004 election cycles.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-Maryland-Governor-Survey-Release-070110.pdf
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5222 on: July 02, 2010, 05:21:44 PM »

OH, PA, AZ, OR, & MD


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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StatesRights
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« Reply #5223 on: July 03, 2010, 01:22:11 AM »

MD (Magellan Strategies)Sad

48% Approve
43% Disapprove

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 752N autodial survey of likely general election voters in the state of Maryland. The interviews were conducted June 29th, 2010. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.57% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, and 2004 election cycles.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-Maryland-Governor-Survey-Release-070110.pdf

Sanity returns to my home state?
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Derek
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« Reply #5224 on: July 03, 2010, 12:35:06 PM »

MD (Magellan Strategies)Sad

48% Approve
43% Disapprove

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 752N autodial survey of likely general election voters in the state of Maryland. The interviews were conducted June 29th, 2010. This survey has a margin of error of +/‐ 3.57% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, and 2004 election cycles.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-Maryland-Governor-Survey-Release-070110.pdf

Sanity returns to my home state?

WOW
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