2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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Cillizza's saying it? Democrats have nothing to be worried about, then! Good news!

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DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

NC being a Toss-Up while WI is Likely R is some galaxy-brain level analysis.

It's possible they're waiting for this week's Marquette poll for any (potential) rating changes in WI.

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DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

NC being a Toss-Up while WI is Likely R is some galaxy-brain level analysis.

It's possible they're waiting for this week's Marquette poll for any (potential) rating changes in WI.

WI is only one rating to the right of where I’d put it (Lean R), and I can see a case for Likely R. NC definitely does not belong two ratings to the left of WI, though.

No, I agree. Personally I'd have it at Lean R as well -- which it might very well be by the end of the week.

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Not sure why they're wasting that much in VA-07.

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The ABC/WaPo poll is horrible for Democrats. They did have R+10 in their last poll a few months ago, so I suppose you could say this is a big shift. But Biden at 39% and R+1 in September means that we're still on track for a significant red wave (+30 in House, +2 in Senate).

R +1 is not that far off from the D +2 average sitting on 538 right now — well within the margin of error. Relax a bit, throw it in the average, see what the CBS Battleground tracker says tomorrow…and feel good about the big shift you mentioned.

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I'm inclined to trust TIPP. Fabulous news.

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lol. Two great polls for Ds after someone declares them to be collapsing.

We just need someone to freak out the day before the election. I volunteer.

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As far as the Generic Ballot is concerned Democrats could win the House Popular Vote from anywhere between 1-3 Points and yet still lose the Chamber. Why? There is now a significant amount of evidence of a significant Overvote in Blue Districts and because of that we are seeing a lot of the GCB Tests having Democrats up.

[citation needed]

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C'mon, you can't extrapolate from a Referendum and a few tiny Special Elections.

*proceeds to extrapolate from a subsample in a single poll*

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Serious “apples to oranges” problem here comparing presidential margins to Senate ones.

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The more I think about this chart, the worse it gets. Are you comparing an equal number of polls from different polling firms in your averages? Is one of them full of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage when it WASN’T in 2016 or 2020? We have basically nothing from Quinnipiac, Siena, or PPP this cycle — if you think those were too Dem-leaning before, then they’ll inevitably have an effect on underestimations.

 This is a ridiculous thing for any reputable site to do.

[soundchaser]

The more I think about this chart, the worse it gets. Are you comparing an equal number of polls from different polling firms in your averages? Is one of them full of Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage when it WASN’T in 2016 or 2020? We have basically nothing from Quinnipiac, Siena, or PPP this cycle — if you think those were too Dem-leaning before, then they’ll inevitably have an effect on underestimations.

 This is a ridiculous thing for any reputable site to do.

Yes, it would be.

I almost added “but clearly RCP crossed that threshold a while ago.”

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Unsurprisingly, Rasmussen is back to R+4 on the GCB, 47-43

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_oct07

Rasmussen's final 2018 poll had Republicans leading by 1.

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The Civiqs tracker has apparently come online (seems to have been hidden for a while but now it's public), and shows D+4 on the GCB, 49-45.

Similar to what the Morning Consult online tracker has found.

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

This is surprising, given how bearish they are on Biden's approval.

[soundchaser]

R+4 is the kind of reasonable outlier you'd expect with a toss-up in the NPV, especially as that lead is coming from a pretty aggressive LV screen. I wouldn't freak out about this just yet -- as has been the case for most of this cycle, we're getting mixed messages here.

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Do we know what youth turnout by % was for NY-19 and AK-AL?

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The Morning Consult tracker reminds me of how the Obama campaign released their internal 2012 polling after the election and it was extremely stable in contrast with the public swings to and against Romney which freaked out his supporters.

While we're on the topic of internal polling: what *is* internal polling anyway and how does it differ from...not-internal polling?

Internal polls are polls sponsored by either a candidate running in the race or an outside group that has endorsed one of the candidates.

Of course, there's a marked difference between public internal polling and private internal polling. Which doesn't actually help answer the question, I realize...

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Harris GCB poll shows R+6

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1582403826191306753?s=20&t=MSH23I9...

This is the same poll from yesterday that had RV tied. Heck of a likely voter screen.

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FWIW, that’s an improvement for Dems from the last YouGov LV poll, although it’s probably statistical noise.

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Ah, whoops -- thanks for the correction. For some reason, I thought LV was only used in the CBS poll. My mistake!

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Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

The one thing that's clear is that everything's unclear.

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Interesting… perhaps it’s not over after all.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583466803954880517?s=21&t=huexcZu...

Jesus.. the wishcasting is incredibly strong.

There's no legitimate reasoning to suggest a group that has been consistently harder to poll since 2016 is now more readily answering pollsters.

Do you think the pollsters finding Democratic non response are lying or something?

No. They are morons who are bad at their job most likely.

One of them posts on this forum, so you may want to watch that.

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I am not soundchaser or Milinnral moderate nervously

I'm equal parts flattered and confused as to how I ended up in this comparison.

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What are they going on for Spanberger apart from "vibes, I guess"?

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You know it’s a bad cycle for Democrats when Morning Consult is the best they got.

Is there a pollster you actually think is trustworthy this cycle?