2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Been a strong September for republicans. Need to keep Dobbs/Abortion out of the news to keep recovering momentum.

Lol it's not Dobbs they offer massive tax cuts for the rich and they blocked Voting Rights, Reagan trickle down economics, Trump is under criminal and civil investigation

[Ferguson97]

Been a strong September for republicans. Need to keep Dobbs/Abortion out of the news to keep recovering momentum.

Lol cope

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs don't believe that investigations are hurting R brands they think it's Dobbs no it's not just Dobbs, Trump at NC which is a Southern state made the 1 figure QAnnon which is the Southern strategy where Confederate statues once were

Did he do that in PA with Oz no he didn't but he did it in NC Southern Strategy by Reagan

[Lief 🗽]

The ABC/WaPo poll is horrible for Democrats. They did have R+10 in their last poll a few months ago, so I suppose you could say this is a big shift. But Biden at 39% and R+1 in September means that we're still on track for a significant red wave (+30 in House, +2 in Senate).

[soundchaser]

The ABC/WaPo poll is horrible for Democrats. They did have R+10 in their last poll a few months ago, so I suppose you could say this is a big shift. But Biden at 39% and R+1 in September means that we're still on track for a significant red wave (+30 in House, +2 in Senate).

R +1 is not that far off from the D +2 average sitting on 538 right now — well within the margin of error. Relax a bit, throw it in the average, see what the CBS Battleground tracker says tomorrow…and feel good about the big shift you mentioned.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The ABC/WaPo poll is horrible for Democrats. They did have R+10 in their last poll a few months ago, so I suppose you could say this is a big shift. But Biden at 39% and R+1 in September means that we're still on track for a significant red wave (+30 in House, +2 in Senate).

What?

538 estimates a gain of only ~10 seats with a projected margin of about 2.3%. That's clearly nonsense but it doesn't add up to 30 seats at 1%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am being optimistic until we vote and Rs in 2010 were plus 6 on GCB 48/42 not plus 1 and won 60H seats and 7 Sen Seats

[SaneDemocrat]

The ABC/WaPo poll is horrible for Democrats. They did have R+10 in their last poll a few months ago, so I suppose you could say this is a big shift. But Biden at 39% and R+1 in September means that we're still on track for a significant red wave (+30 in House, +2 in Senate).

Yeah this increasesingly becoming Trump 2016

[windjammer]

The ABC/WaPo poll is horrible for Democrats. They did have R+10 in their last poll a few months ago, so I suppose you could say this is a big shift. But Biden at 39% and R+1 in September means that we're still on track for a significant red wave (+30 in House, +2 in Senate).

Well let's focus on the Big shift !

[Brittain33]

ABC/WaPo is 51-46 R for LVs. Which would be a big change from what the specials have shown, but that’s not impossible.

[MT Treasurer]

ABC/WaPo is 51-46 R for LVs. Which would be a big change from what the specials have shown, but that’s not impossible.

I can’t emphasize this enough, but I really don’t think it would be so much a "big change" from the specials as an entirely different electorate. Very important distinction, and also why I really caution people against reading this much into special elections.

[wbrocks67]

I don't see an LV model in this poll?

What I will say is that the poll has Biden -16 in approval among RVs, which is significantly off from the -8 (44/52) average it's sitting at on 538 right now.

This was also rather... surprising:

Democrats hold a 10-point advantage among women under age 50, down from a 32-point lead ahead of the 2018 election.

Bit of an anomaly considering what we've seen with other polls, motivation of women post-Dobbs, and the specials.

[wbrocks67]

ABC/WashPo has R+1 with registered and Rs getting 18% of the black vote and Trump 23% in 2024. The topline isn't at all odd but if you expected a quality poll that made sense, this won't be it. We are going to have historic uncertainty on election day with all these polling misses the past 5 years.

Yeah, them also having Trump +2 in the 2024 rematch is also giving me major pause among other things. Given what has happened this year, especially with Trump, having Trump doing a whole 6% better than 2020 is... a result.

[Brittain33]

ABC/WaPo is 51-46 R for LVs. Which would be a big change from what the specials have shown, but that’s not impossible.

I can’t emphasize this enough, but I really don’t think it would be so much a "big change" from the specials as an entirely different electorate. Very important distinction, and also why I really caution people against reading this much into special elections.

Fair point, but looking at the last several elections, what has been a better indicator of Election Day: special elections or the generic ballot polling? We can be cautious about special elections, but we need to be even more cautious about polling. ABC’s LV screen isn’t the gold standard.

This LV screen increasing R performance seems at odds with your point that special elections would be more D than the general election. Who is a more likely voter than someone who shows up for a special?

[wbrocks67]

ABC/WaPo is 51-46 R for LVs. Which would be a big change from what the specials have shown, but that’s not impossible.

I can’t emphasize this enough, but I really don’t think it would be so much a "big change" from the specials as an entirely different electorate. Very important distinction, and also why I really caution people against reading this much into special elections.

Fair point, but looking at the last several elections, what has been a better indicator of Election Day: special elections or the generic ballot polling? We can be cautious about special elections, but we need to be even more cautious about polling. ABC’s LV screen isn’t the gold standard.

This LV screen increasing R performance seems at odds with your point that special elections would be more D than the general election. Who is a more likely voter than someone who shows up for a special?

Where is the LV screen? I don't see any in the crosstabs.

[wbrocks67]

For reference, the CBS battleground tracker forecast was

July: R 230 - D 205
August: R 226 - D 209

[Brittain33]

ABC/WaPo is 51-46 R for LVs. Which would be a big change from what the specials have shown, but that’s not impossible.

I can’t emphasize this enough, but I really don’t think it would be so much a "big change" from the specials as an entirely different electorate. Very important distinction, and also why I really caution people against reading this much into special elections.

Fair point, but looking at the last several elections, what has been a better indicator of Election Day: special elections or the generic ballot polling? We can be cautious about special elections, but we need to be even more cautious about polling. ABC’s LV screen isn’t the gold standard.

This LV screen increasing R performance seems at odds with your point that special elections would be more D than the general election. Who is a more likely voter than someone who shows up for a special?

Where is the LV screen? I don't see any in the crosstabs.

I’ve only seen it in the reporting as 51-46 for R. Is it really not included in the data?

[wbrocks67]

ABC/WaPo is 51-46 R for LVs. Which would be a big change from what the specials have shown, but that’s not impossible.

I can’t emphasize this enough, but I really don’t think it would be so much a "big change" from the specials as an entirely different electorate. Very important distinction, and also why I really caution people against reading this much into special elections.

Fair point, but looking at the last several elections, what has been a better indicator of Election Day: special elections or the generic ballot polling? We can be cautious about special elections, but we need to be even more cautious about polling. ABC’s LV screen isn’t the gold standard.

This LV screen increasing R performance seems at odds with your point that special elections would be more D than the general election. Who is a more likely voter than someone who shows up for a special?

Where is the LV screen? I don't see any in the crosstabs.

I’ve only seen it in the reporting as 51-46 for R. Is it really not included in the data?

Unless there's a tab I'm not seeing, I don't see it. They have it broken down by adults and RV, but no LV.

[Brittain33]

Waiting to see how this hits 538 and pulls down the Dems

[wbrocks67]

Actually wait, I found it - it's in the article but wasn't in the crosstabs

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-struggles-party-democrats-2024-poll/story?id=90427262&cid=social_twitter_abcnp

[Brittain33]

Actually wait, I found it - it's in the article but wasn't in the crosstabs

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-struggles-party-democrats-2024-poll/story?id=90427262&cid=social_twitter_abcnp

Looks like ABC ran with it, WaPo didn’t.

[wbrocks67]

Women younger than 40 support the Democratic candidate in their district by 19 points, but did so by 43 points in the 2018 exit poll.

If this actually happens, yes, the GOP is winning. But given everything we have seen, I don't imagine this being the case.

[Ferguson97]

I love how everyone just decides that the most recent poll that they’ve seen is the most accurate, even if it’s only a day or two after another poll

Like just look at the reaction to Wisconsin polling

Barnes+2 = Democrats may pull this off, it’s a tossup!

Johnson+1 = Titanium Ron Jon can’t be beaten… Democrats are fools for investing in this race.

[wbrocks67]

I love how everyone just decides that the most recent poll that they’ve seen is the most accurate, even if it’s only a day or two after another poll

Like just look at the reaction to Wisconsin polling

Barnes+2 = Democrats may pull this off, it’s a tossup!

Johnson+1 = Titanium Ron Jon can’t be beaten… Democrats are fools for investing in this race.

Exactly - R+1 / R+5 is a pretty big outlier compared to what we've been seeing but I'm not surprised that a few people here now accept this is as the "real" result and the last month of polling to be wrong.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1574028938535469057