2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know they are skeptical about OH but Vance has a 28 percent Approvals he isn't gonna make that up with Blk voters and females around the state

I actually have Ryan winning over Barnes I know that's not the 303 map but Ryan has been averaging 5.5 in the polls we only seen 1 poll with Barnes ahead 2 46/44 and some polls have BEASLEY behind, I put it all on my map as wave insurance but Ryan has been looking good and average 5 5 like Fetterman

I think that MQK poll is gonna have Barnes up 47)43 and Evers up 49/44, that was a close call that Kleefisch didn't win I am so happy

If Kleefisch won it would of been opposite Johnson 47/43 and Kleefisch up 49/44, that's how close we were gonna lose WI

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1559252440779788289

[wbrocks67]

Wisconsin could make sense in the context that Johnson has had no problem raising money. But given Oz and Masters' troubles raising their own money, that's not a good look for the two of them...

[Xing]

DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

NC being a Toss-Up while WI is Likely R is some galaxy-brain level analysis.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

NC being a Toss-Up while WI is Likely R is some galaxy-brain level analysis.

MQK poll had Barnes up 46/44 and they are polling the race W, Johnson never wins by more than 3 not ,10 pts Cook has WI Tossup and NC Lean R

[soundchaser]

DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

NC being a Toss-Up while WI is Likely R is some galaxy-brain level analysis.

It's possible they're waiting for this week's Marquette poll for any (potential) rating changes in WI.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

75 chance Barnes is up 47/43 and 25 percent chance Johnson will be up 47/43 and Evers will be up 49/44 100 percent because Kleefisch isn't on ballot WI is Tossup told D

[windjammer]

Honestly I don't want to be disappointed again. Let's wait for the elections on tuesday.

[Xing]

DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

NC being a Toss-Up while WI is Likely R is some galaxy-brain level analysis.

It's possible they're waiting for this week's Marquette poll for any (potential) rating changes in WI.

WI is only one rating to the right of where I’d put it (Lean R), and I can see a case for Likely R. NC definitely does not belong two ratings to the left of WI, though.

[soundchaser]

DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

NC being a Toss-Up while WI is Likely R is some galaxy-brain level analysis.

It's possible they're waiting for this week's Marquette poll for any (potential) rating changes in WI.

WI is only one rating to the right of where I’d put it (Lean R), and I can see a case for Likely R. NC definitely does not belong two ratings to the left of WI, though.

No, I agree. Personally I'd have it at Lean R as well -- which it might very well be by the end of the week.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

Absolutely nonsensical.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DDHQ moves NC-SEN to tossup: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1559213501008056325

Absolutely nonsensical.

Do you know NC has 20 percent Blk and OH has 12 percent Blk and white females vote D too and Brown and Cunningham and Cooper got the majority of white female and BLK and native American vote it's not a white man election

You think Oz is gonna win and he is behind 5.5 in every poll because Blks and white female vote D white female vote D 55/45%.
That's how Casey, Wolf won in 2018 by 9 pts 12% Blk and 55/45% white female and Biden won the state as Veep in 2008/12 and as Prez 202o

Budd, Vance and Oz are gonna get 1% of Blk vote or -100 percent Blks don't like Oz, Budd or Vance either

[wbrocks67]

To be fair, DDHQ has NC at like 61.5% Budd / 38.5% Beasley, which most people would not categorize as a 'tossup'

[GeorgiaModerate]

To be fair, DDHQ has NC at like 61.5% Budd / 38.5% Beasley, which most people would not categorize as a 'tossup'

Right, the issue (as discussed in more detail in the NC-SEN thread) is that DDHQ considers anything less than 65% for the leading candidate to be a tossup, but most of us would probably define a tossup more narrowly.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/katiebparis/status/1559229330496036864

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult has GCB to D+4, 46-42.

Was D+1 last week, 44-43.

https://morningconsult.com/2022/08/17/republicans-enthusiasm-biden-popularity-2022-midterms/

[Brittain33]

Politico/Morning Consult has GCB to D+4, 46-42.

Was D+1 last week, 44-43.

https://morningconsult.com/2022/08/17/republicans-enthusiasm-biden-popularity-2022-midterms/

This poll has been extremely steady for Republicans and showing a small uptick among Dems since Dobbs.

[Virginiá]

I want to believe, but I've been scammed by more than enough midterms (and polls in general) to get fully invested. Normally I'd rather say I'd like to see what the polls say in mid October, but even then, during the Trump era there have been some pretty wild polling misses. The correlation between presidential approval rating and some level of midterm losses has been pretty consistent, too. It's hard to square that with these results. Either there is some other dynamic at play, or there is going to be a correction at some point in Biden's approval ratings or the favorable Dem polls.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[GeorgiaModerate]

I want to believe, but I've been scammed by more than enough midterms (and polls in general) to get fully invested. Normally I'd rather say I'd like to see what the polls say in mid October, but even then, during the Trump era there have been some pretty wild polling misses. The correlation between presidential approval rating and some level of midterm losses has been pretty consistent, too. It's hard to square that with these results. Either there is some other dynamic at play, or there is going to be a correction at some point in Biden's approval ratings or the favorable Dem polls.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The disconnect this year seems to be caused by a significant minority of Democrats who disapprove of Biden (presumably progressives who think he hasn't accomplished enough) but nevertheless plan to vote D in the midterms.

[wbrocks67]

I want to believe, but I've been scammed by more than enough midterms (and polls in general) to get fully invested. Normally I'd rather say I'd like to see what the polls say in mid October, but even then, during the Trump era there have been some pretty wild polling misses. The correlation between presidential approval rating and some level of midterm losses has been pretty consistent, too. It's hard to square that with these results. Either there is some other dynamic at play, or there is going to be a correction at some point in Biden's approval ratings or the favorable Dem polls.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The disconnect this year seems to be caused by a significant minority of Democrats who disapprove of Biden (presumably progressives who think he hasn't accomplished enough) but nevertheless plan to vote D in the midterms.

This. It can be displayed in fuller extent looking at the Morning Consult/Politico poll, which has a huge n= so worth looking at.

They break down the GCB vote by 'strong approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strong disapprove'

Biden strongly approve: 95% D, 3% R
Biden somewhat approve: 81% D, 8% R
Biden somewhat disapprove: 42% D, 35% R
Biden strongly disapprove: 84% D, 6% D

The fact that Democrats are winning the 'somewhat disapprove' vote tells me that what we've expected is true - that there's a decent chunk of Democrats/Independents who disapprove of Biden but are still voting D this fall.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov stays at D+6 this week, 45/39 vs last week's 44/38.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/jf179lebaq/econTabReport%20%282%29.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still August let's wait til see what happens in FL 13 next week and the AK Special Election that will dictate the EDay it's a 303 map and we will keep the Senate if we win both AK AL and FL 13 we win the H

[wbrocks67]

Trafalgar at R+5, down from R+8 their last poll


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1559929381191041024

[Epaminondas]

RCP polling aggregator flips to Dem+0.2, for the first time in 10 months.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1559983584718364672