LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[lfromnj]

I have to be honest- I miss the anecdotal turnout reports that were usually wrong.

If it makes you happy, I saw a guy posting on twitter that there had been black people at his polling place, which he obviously saw as a good sign for JBE.

Yeah, but I saw on Twitter that someone saw a rain cloud in Baton Rouge. RIP JBE.

Reported. We need serious replies in this important thread.

[lfromnj]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Jefferson county are wealthy and educated suburbs. Did these trend D compared to 2015’s results?

This county did not only Trend D from 2015 which everyone expected but it actually trended further D from 2016 which is not what people expected considering it takes time for trends to fully hit the local level . I expected about a 10 point D trend from 2015 and a 4 or 5 point R trend from 2016 putting it right where the state was. Instead we got a 5 point d trend from 2016 and a 20 point D trend from 2015.

[lfromnj]

I think Milkovich lost because rural Lousianians are smart voters who dont stand for stupid anti vaxxers.

[lfromnj]

Heard that JBE used Obama robocalls but they weren't targeted properly

[lfromnj]

What is funny is that it is fairly likely that Jon Bel Edwards wins by the same margin as Blanco did in the 2003 run off but with a map nearly inversed. haha



Edwards will have to carry most of the parishes around New Orleans that voted to Jindal.

If he is losing the St Charles Parish by more than 1 or 2% in early returns it is probably over.

I wonder why la Salle's voted for blanco

[lfromnj]

if trends are indeed real, shouldn't Beshear be winning Kenton, Campbell & Warren even as he's resoundingly defeated statewide?

No. Trends would suggest they should be good bellwethers (and that's even assuming they catch up to presidential/congressional trends in a Governor race). What you just described is the trends on steroids outcome.

However JBE really shouldn't have won Jefferson by 6 while losing the 2 party vote by 6

[lfromnj]

Yeah this is likely JBe rn

[lfromnj]

Those numbers are very troubling to Rispone's chances. Maybe the Republican infighting is going to lower their turnout after all... Or some Democrats just sat on their ass in October.

For reasons I cannot explain, there is a segment of African American voters who just don't participate in the "primary" election.

This is especially weird because in GA it's the opposite

[lfromnj]

My dream scenario for a map would be the abolishment of the VRA and this map
https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1196211400911118336