LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[jamestroll]

Jefferson Parish results at the moment has Edwards at 54.3% hahah! I hope this holds!

[jamestroll]

I still would bet on Jon Bel Edwards in the run off.

Yes, we all know Southern Whites are very inflexible. Probably will give Trump like a 0.5% Georgia victory next year.

I do not know much of Louisiana political geography but I am figuring Edwards will win the run off with 52.2% of the vote and will end up with 57% in the Jefferson Parish and probably also wins St Charles,  Plaquemines and St Benard parishes quite handily.

Just shows you how much the coalitions have changed in such a short time! Four years ago Edwards needed a large  statewide victory to barely carry those parishes. This year he is basically counting on them to win re-election. I do not think they are the types of suburbs that will trend Democratic really. They are just to conservative. But since they have some logic and some intelligence they are able to be reasoned with and worth reaching out to and build a winning coalition. Like Hamilton County, Indiana is similar in some senses. Heavy conservative but any Democrat who wins that state going forward has to win Hamilton.

New swing voters are white suburbanites.

[jamestroll]

So the St Charles Parish was more pro-Edwards compared to statewide average last night. 47.2% versus 46.6%.

In 2015 it was a bare narrow victory for Edwards in a statewide landslide. Next month it could well be more Democratic than the state!

[jamestroll]

What is funny is that it is fairly likely that Jon Bel Edwards wins by the same margin as Blanco did in the 2003 run off but with a map nearly inversed. haha



Edwards will have to carry most of the parishes around New Orleans that voted to Jindal.

If he is losing the St Charles Parish by more than 1 or 2% in early returns it is probably over.

[jamestroll]

Only 28 day and around 16 hours until many of the Parishes that voted for Jindal in 2003 save JBE!

[jamestroll]

Hood's crossover with rural whites is encouraging to JBE. But if black turnout is as bad as in MS, he's gone.

On the other hand, Louisiana has suburban areas that can and probably will save Edwards and I am hoping Edwards pulls a few local democrats win his across the finish to prevent  a supermajority for the GOP.

[jamestroll]

Things like that happen when trends run ahead of conventional wisdom.
It's like 2010 when Arkansas Republicans didn't take the majority in the legislature because they left too many seats uncontested.

Yes and also because the Arkansas GOP didn't really have a bench to overtake the legislature and even as late as 2010 there were still entrenched legislative incumbents and many Arkansans had some local trust in Democrats.

Little did people know what would happen in the following cycles.

But anyway.. we may not be able to win Southern states federally but through suburbs we could do better with governorships.