Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

The issue for Youngkin is that much like how he twisted McAuliffe's words on teachers/schools, McAuliffe can easily use Youngkins simple "no" to say he doesn't support same-sex marriage.

[wbrocks67]

It's very interesting here the amount of excuses that are being made for Youngkin day in day out.

[wbrocks67]

I've phonebanked for Ds before, and even the week of, you're still calling the reliable D base to make sure they're voting or have voted already, so I don't know what to make of Snow Labrador's post, if it's even true.

[wbrocks67]

Obama calling a spade a spade. You can criticize T-Mac for his campaign, but the truth is Youngkin ain't running a great campaign either. His entire campaign is built around fake GOP cultural issues.

https://twitter.com/ryanbeckwith/status/1451989500167659525

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1451999217828782080

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1451997754796826627

[wbrocks67]

Depends on what metrics you're using to grade Youngkin's campaign though. Has he successfully threaded a needle between Trumpism and "moderate" GOP? maybe a bit. But he's also been using the same exact tactics that led to Gillespie's defeat in 2017 - cultural war issues that are hyped up by the political press but don't end up mattering much to kitchen table issue voters.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1452598991045136390👀

This same exact headline and story could've came out in 2017. It's the same thing all over again. Not to mention, there is a story like this with every single Dem campaign, whether it was the CA recall or the NM special earlier this year.

Also - yes, suburban women are very interested in the topic of public education. But I don't think they're interested in anti-maskers showing up to school board meetings like lunatics or falling for the ridiculous CRT narrative.

A lot of these stories seem to think suburban women are still the caricature of a conservative suburban woman from the 1980s or something.

[wbrocks67]

Noted GOP activist is now just a "regular mom" in new Youngkin ad. This is just desperate.

https://twitter.com/akarl_smith/status/1452677631758016513

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin the one running a messy campaign atm - if you want to run on Education, then sure, great - but I don't see how this type of stuff is going to get the suburban women on your side. I don't see how you think you're winning if you have to reduce to this stuff.

https://twitter.com/cnn94cnn/status/1452771915723157509

[wbrocks67]

Youngkin bringing up blackface over a relatively popular governor says all you need to know about his pathetic campaign's chances with one week out.  LOL

Nothing wrong with pointing out hypocrisy. Someone truly into racial justice wouldn't be happy with terrance literally poo-pooing and shrugging away a kkk picture and blackface.

While I agree with you that Youngkin has every right to bring up the issue if he wants to. I do think that it's odd that he is doing this at this stage of the race and frankly if he was winning there is no chance that he would even have to resort to these kinds of desperate attacks in the first place


If Youngkin was winning right now there would be no need to ever bring up Ralph Northam because even if voters voter agreed with on him on the Dems hypocrisy over blackface, I still think most people do not care about this issue at all and others see it as old news that they have moved on from a long time ago

Ultimately it's simply not a good sign for Youngkin at all that he feels at this stage of the campaign that he needs to focus more on what Ralph Northam may have done 30 years ago than on actually convincing voters to support him and his policies

Your analysis based on couple (out of hundreds) of ads? Ok. Why do you think, these are "desperate attacks"? IMO, these kinds of ads might be effective into lowering enthusiasm among some D electorate.

You don't know what ads are playing regularly in Virginia.

I do.

https://www.wtkr.com/news/campaigns-for-virginia-governor-go-negative-in-final-weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/22/virginia-governors-race-abortion-schools-take-center-stage-in-election-ad-wars-.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/us/politics/virginia-governor-campaign-ads.html

You do realize there are a plethora more of ads running that just the ones a few websites have noted? Unless you live in VA, you do not know all the ads that are running.

[wbrocks67]

Harris is headed back to VA for an event with T-Mac on Friday with Pharrell.

https://twitter.com/WAVY_News/status/1452662462436855810

[wbrocks67]

Looks like there won't be (as much) of a red mirage in VA this year:

https://twitter.com/JulieCareyNBC/status/1452815233706340354

[wbrocks67]

Noted GOP activist is now just a "regular mom" in new Youngkin ad. This is just desperate.

https://twitter.com/akarl_smith/status/1452677631758016513

The main theme of the ad is probably very well-chosen.

From the latest Suffolk

24. Should parents or school boards have more of an influence on a school’s curriculum?

• Parents 49.80%
• School Boards 38.80%

That poll question is ill-conceived, school boards do not set the curriculum. The state does, and teachers obviously have more influence in what is taught in the classroom versus the school board, so not sure why that was the choice.

Not to mention, school board members are generally... community members and parents, so it's a pretty bad job of Suffolk to not create a question that lives in reality.

Not to mention that parents should not have a say in the curriculum, because if they did, it would be a total mess - as seen in the GOP ad, where parents would be able to ban whatever they want for whatever reason they want. There's a reason why parents should not have a say in what's being taught in the classroom, and that's one of them.

[wbrocks67]

T-Mac outspending Youngkin nearly 2:1 in the final stretch, which is a bit surprising.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1452991950685093907

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

I mean, it's only two visits.

It's not impossible. But it's also possible that they can't leave anything to change, whether they're up or they're down, and know it's smarter just to go all in.

[wbrocks67]

Who is ready for this same dog and pony show in 2025 after McAuliffe ultimately wins this year and all the panic was much ado about nothing?

I mean, given what we saw with the CA recall race, it's clear the political world will keep doing this with every single "off year" race no matter what the partisan lean of that state is.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

Not a terribly better position. 538 show Biden's approval as -3 on CA election day vs. -7 now.

[wbrocks67]

Polls moved towards the democrats as the CA recall approached, that isn't happening here.

This is exactly right, which is why the “but CA” canard is so dumb

There were 3 or 4 polls in last week of CA recall showing “no” surging and approaching 20 points

Mostly because pollsters realized their models from earlier were terrible. But the same issues seem to be prescient here - pollsters don't know whos showing up.

Pollsters could also use CA early vote to help them since its by party reg, but since its not in VA, that can't be used as much.

Pollsters also don't seem to know who's going to show up. A lot of the current polls are factoring in an electorate where Dems aren't really showing up.

[wbrocks67]

Let's take a trip back in time...

Last polls of 2017 election

Monmouth University D+3
IMGE Insights (R) D +1
Change Research D+1
Quinnipiac University D+9
Emerson College D+3
Washington Post D + 8
Suffolk D+4  (bad sign for McAuliffe)

I look forward to seeing a Quinnipiac poll

It's interesting that Q-pac has seemed to give up on VA. Wapo/Scholar did do a poll in VA in September, but I guess they're not doing a final one.

[wbrocks67]

Wapo gives Terrance mcawfuliffe 4 Pinocchios for repeatedly inflating covid threat in the commonwealth

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1452972964551475206

This fear mongering is a sign of a flailing campaign. Could Dems really not find anyone better?

Youngkin has literally been fear mongering this entire campaign...

[wbrocks67]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

[wbrocks67]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

Given Fairfax is nearly 70% D at this point, and indications are that about 40% statewide are going to vote early, Dems need to shoot above that in Fairfax. We have a lot more questions to fill in before we can claim something is "not lining up with polls". Besides Idk what polls you're talking about claiming lower turnout in NoVA.

Well most have shown Dem apathy vs. GOP but USA Today/Suffolk this morning showed NOVA as the lowest area of the state for "definitely will vote" I believe. Those types of things factor in likely voter models, so just saying that right now, voting is going at a brisk pace in NOVA, despite the narrative that Dems are asleep in VA.

[wbrocks67]

I remember a lot of democratic anxiety over the race around this time in 2017. Looking at polls from this time four years ago they were also very close and leaning looks up the guy Gillespie.
 

Yeah, even though some parts of the election are different, a LOT of what is going on this last week is very reminiscent of the 2017 race. T-Mac won't win Northam margins but pretty sure everyone was doomcasting the last week of that race too, saying that Northam was blowing it because Gillepsie was winning on the issues. It's the same exact thing all over again. Mostly because pundits were pushing really hard for the narrative that Gillepsie was winning the culture war, much like they're doing now with Youngkin.

[wbrocks67]

Hopefully in the next week we get:
-one more CBS/YouGov (maybe tomorrow?)
-one more Monmouth (they're doing NJ tomorrow, maybe VA by next Sunday or Monday)
-Washington Post/Scholar poll (they did one in late Oct 2020 and did one in Sept 2021, but nothing yet)
-one more CNU
-one more Wason
-possibly one more Fox?
-possibly one more Emerson?

It doesn't appear Q-Pac is doing VA anymore, which is surprising considering they nailed the race in 2017.

[wbrocks67]

Hopefully in the next week we get:
-one more CBS/YouGov (maybe tomorrow?)
-one more Monmouth (they're doing NJ tomorrow, maybe VA by next Sunday or Monday)
-Washington Post/Scholar poll (they did one in late Oct 2020 and did one in Sept 2021, but nothing yet)
-one more CNU
-one more Wason
-possibly one more Fox?
-possibly one more Emerson?

It doesn't appear Q-Pac is doing VA anymore, which is surprising considering they nailed the race in 2017.

QPAC should be out of business. they suck.

Given their weird R-lean this year, I'd be curious though what they'd come up with lol

[wbrocks67]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

Well, T-Mac has done a very good job in his first term and putting him back in office would just sort of confirm that.

Was he considered a great or popular governor when he was in office cause I remember him being considered more or less an unremarkable one .

His approval was 54/41 in the 2017 exits, so I'd say so