Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[roxas11]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

I'm not sure buy this because at the time Biden was being hit by a very bad news cycle when it came to Afghanistan and the delta wave was doing devastating damage around the country.

today Biden may not be in the greatest shape, but I would argue that he currently in a far better position than he was in August and September of 2021

This just isn't true. Sorry, Afghanistan wasn't the only thing that brought down his approval. The fact that it's even worse today should tell you something. Maybe the way the media looks at how "successful" Biden is on any given week/month/etc. doesn't line up with the way Americans view him, shockingly.

At no point in my original post did I ever make the claim that Afghanistan was the only thing that brought down Biden approval, so I'm not sure where the criticism is even coming from because I specifically said in my original post that Afghanistan and the Delta wave was hurting Biden around that time.

Also to be clear when I said biden was in better postion I was not talking about his polls

I was saying that the political environment of August 2021 was way worse than October 2021 because on on every level from the covid to the economy things were just not going well at all

In October while Bidens polls may be worse everything that is currently going on around him is better. Covid has massively declined since august and it now looks like he does have at least a decent shot at getting his agenda passed something that I was not sure sure about a few months ago

No, everything that's going on around him is not better, people are now feeling the effects of inflation and supply shortages and that is even overriding COVID as a concern. It wasn't as bad in August, and given that this never happened under Trump it's natural for people to blame the party in charge. Who cares that Biden might pass a bill to fix some roads and shovel some money at other people when they're feeling negative effects of inflation and empty store shelves now? Now there are good arguments for why it's not Biden's fault or they can fix it, but he and the Democratic party need to make the case to the people and so far they have not done a good job. For awhile they even denied that it was a problem, I remember Joe even saying that inflation was a good thing because it meant wages would rise.

Wow, this comment kind of caught me off guard

I will just say this maybe something like that does not matter where you live, but down here in Louisiana there are a lot of people who do care about infrastructure and the jobs that it will provide them.

I can tell you this I have not met a single person in this very conservative state who has told me that they don't care about infrastructure anymore because of inflation. Not even my trump supporting co-workers would even say something like that

You have a good point, everyone agrees infrastructure needs work and the spending on that is sorely needed. However there are a couple of problems with it:

1. Dems didn't take the win in August when it was offered to them, instead they descended into infighting about the reconciliation bill which has overshadowed the infrastructure bill, to the point that people have almost forgotten about it.

2. Where I live there is a lot of "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude when it comes to infrastructure spending. Politicians have talked about fixing the tunnels, bridges, NYC subway, NJT trains, etc forever, and money has been shoveled at it, yet they just get worse and worse and improvement projects seemingly take forever with no perceivable result.

Now on this 100 percent agree with you

The infighting especially between Bernie and joe manchin was embarrassing and frankly I did not think that silly food fight in washington helped Biden or terry mcauliffe at all

Now I understand that both sides are very passionate, but if Biden can keep most of his disagreements mostly behind closed doors than why can't Bernie and joe Manchin act like adults and do the same....

[Matty]

Wapo gives Terrance mcawfuliffe 4 Pinocchios for repeatedly inflating covid threat in the commonwealth

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1452972964551475206

[Non Swing Voter]

Democrats are definitly panicking, you don't get that kind of VP engagment unless polls are showing something scary.

All these people went and campaigned with Gavin Newsom just a few months ago.  How did that election turn out?

Biden was in a much better position then. California is also way bluer than both Virginia and New Jersey, and Elder was a much weaker candidate than Youngkin or Ciattarelli.

Then how is someone visiting evidence of panicking???  If they were safe.  That's the entire point.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why would someone who lives on the other side of the country care so much about local VA covid and school board issues?  It's perplexing.  I guess the VA race gives blue avatars hope.  Until Youngkin loses and they just move on to the next race as if nothing happened (see CA recall).

[Horus]

Wapo gives Terrance mcawfuliffe 4 Pinocchios for repeatedly inflating covid threat in the commonwealth

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1452972964551475206

This fear mongering is a sign of a flailing campaign. Could Dems really not find anyone better?

[Xing]

This race is giving me IA-SEN 2020 vibes. People exaggerate a bit how lopsided it will be initially, then drastically overestimate the competitiveness of it due to polling showing a close race (and people tend to believe polling when they like what it shows), only for it to be a decently comfortable win, though still somewhat of an underperformance and not a double-digit win. That's why I'm sticking with McAuliffe +6 as my prediction.

[BigSerg]

Let's take a trip back in time...

Last polls of 2017 election

Monmouth University D+3
IMGE Insights (R) D +1
Change Research D+1
Quinnipiac University D+9
Emerson College D+3
Washington Post D + 8
Suffolk D+4  (bad sign for McAuliffe)

I look forward to seeing a Quinnipiac poll

[wbrocks67]

Let's take a trip back in time...

Last polls of 2017 election

Monmouth University D+3
IMGE Insights (R) D +1
Change Research D+1
Quinnipiac University D+9
Emerson College D+3
Washington Post D + 8
Suffolk D+4  (bad sign for McAuliffe)

I look forward to seeing a Quinnipiac poll

It's interesting that Q-pac has seemed to give up on VA. Wapo/Scholar did do a poll in VA in September, but I guess they're not doing a final one.

[wbrocks67]

Wapo gives Terrance mcawfuliffe 4 Pinocchios for repeatedly inflating covid threat in the commonwealth

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1452972964551475206

This fear mongering is a sign of a flailing campaign. Could Dems really not find anyone better?

Youngkin has literally been fear mongering this entire campaign...

[Non Swing Voter]

Yes, the same pollsters who previously overestimated Dems are now "correcting" by just overestimating the GOP (just like CA)... that race didn't shift 15 points in a week.  The polls were just off. 

Its fascinating how the "analysts" who predicted that Dems would pickup house seats in 2020 are now being idolized here for saying VA is close.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wapo gives Terrance mcawfuliffe 4 Pinocchios for repeatedly inflating covid threat in the commonwealth

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1452972964551475206

This fear mongering is a sign of a flailing campaign. Could Dems really not find anyone better?

Youngkin has literally been fear mongering this entire campaign...

They are really desperate for talking points on this.  It's going to be hilarious to read this forum when Youngkin loses.

Given that T-Mac is "more vulnerable than Tester" I guess when Youngkin loses it means the Dem senate is safe for 4 years!

[wbrocks67]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

[BigSerg]

Wapo gives Terrance mcawfuliffe 4 Pinocchios for repeatedly inflating covid threat in the commonwealth

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1452972964551475206

This fear mongering is a sign of a flailing campaign. Could Dems really not find anyone better?

Youngkin has literally been fear mongering this entire campaign...

They are really desperate for talking points on this.  It's going to be hilarious to read this forum when Youngkin loses.

Given that T-Mac is "more vulnerable than Tester" I guess when Youngkin loses it means the Dem senate is safe for 4 years!

Dude, even wbrocks67 seems more reasonable to me than you

[Horus]

Wapo gives Terrance mcawfuliffe 4 Pinocchios for repeatedly inflating covid threat in the commonwealth

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1452972964551475206

This fear mongering is a sign of a flailing campaign. Could Dems really not find anyone better?

Youngkin has literally been fear mongering this entire campaign...

They are really desperate for talking points on this.  It's going to be hilarious to read this forum when Youngkin loses.

Given that T-Mac is "more vulnerable than Tester" I guess when Youngkin loses it means the Dem senate is safe for 4 years!

I certainly hope t Mac wins since Youngkin is anti vax but he shouldn't need to lie about childrens COVID rates to win. "Think of the children" arguments are as low IQ as they come.

That t Mac is barely up against a candidate as shady as Youngkin shows that he's basically a male Hillary.

[Duke of York]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

I think there is a possibility polls could be off like they were in 2017.

[Matty]

I love how you guys will not stop squeezing the 2017 polling error, while ignoring other years where VA polling underestimated Rs

[Non Swing Voter]

Wapo gives Terrance mcawfuliffe 4 Pinocchios for repeatedly inflating covid threat in the commonwealth

https://mobile.twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1452972964551475206

This fear mongering is a sign of a flailing campaign. Could Dems really not find anyone better?

Youngkin has literally been fear mongering this entire campaign...

They are really desperate for talking points on this.  It's going to be hilarious to read this forum when Youngkin loses.

Given that T-Mac is "more vulnerable than Tester" I guess when Youngkin loses it means the Dem senate is safe for 4 years!

Dude, even wbrocks67 seems more reasonable to me than you

Good, then I must be doing something right. 

[Non Swing Voter]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

Of course not.  NOVA always votes at a higher rate than downstate, but particularly in off off years.  The massive GOP enthusiasm is not materializing at all.  Rural VA needs stunningly massive turnout on Election Day to catch.  It wont happen.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

Given Fairfax is nearly 70% D at this point, and indications are that about 40% statewide are going to vote early, Dems need to shoot above that in Fairfax. We have a lot more questions to fill in before we can claim something is "not lining up with polls". Besides Idk what polls you're talking about claiming lower turnout in NoVA.

[kwabbit]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

There's going to be high turnout everywhere. All turnout records have been shattered since Trump solidified his base going into 2018. There might be more than 20% more votes than 2017 overall.

I buy high Fairfax turnout, UMC always vote, that's not going to change. Youngkin will have to do some persuasion in NOVA to win.

[wbrocks67]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

Given Fairfax is nearly 70% D at this point, and indications are that about 40% statewide are going to vote early, Dems need to shoot above that in Fairfax. We have a lot more questions to fill in before we can claim something is "not lining up with polls". Besides Idk what polls you're talking about claiming lower turnout in NoVA.

Well most have shown Dem apathy vs. GOP but USA Today/Suffolk this morning showed NOVA as the lowest area of the state for "definitely will vote" I believe. Those types of things factor in likely voter models, so just saying that right now, voting is going at a brisk pace in NOVA, despite the narrative that Dems are asleep in VA.

[MT Treasurer]

Given Fairfax is nearly 70% D at this point, and indications are that about 40% statewide are going to vote early, Dems need to shoot above that in Fairfax. We have a lot more questions to fill in before we can claim something is "not lining up with polls". Besides Idk what polls you're talking about claiming lower turnout in NoVA.

Also, polls by definition cannot show low turnout in a particular area. Maybe he’s confusing it with enthusiasm or crosstabs on the "Have you already voted?" question (extremely unreliable and not worth reading into), but who knows?

[Non Swing Voter]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

There's going to be high turnout everywhere. All turnout records have been shattered since Trump solidified his base going into 2018. There might be more than 20% more votes than 2017 overall.

I buy high Fairfax turnout, UMC always vote, that's not going to change. Youngkin will have to do some persuasion in NOVA to win.

This is an off off year governor's race.  Turnout is going to be nowhere near 2020 levels so banking votes now is important.  Youngkin needs to persuade a huge amount of NOVA voters to win and his school board nonsense isn't going to do it.

[Non Swing Voter]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

Given Fairfax is nearly 70% D at this point, and indications are that about 40% statewide are going to vote early, Dems need to shoot above that in Fairfax. We have a lot more questions to fill in before we can claim something is "not lining up with polls". Besides Idk what polls you're talking about claiming lower turnout in NoVA.

Well most have shown Dem apathy vs. GOP but USA Today/Suffolk this morning showed NOVA as the lowest area of the state for "definitely will vote" I believe. Those types of things factor in likely voter models, so just saying that right now, voting is going at a brisk pace in NOVA, despite the narrative that Dems are asleep in VA.

A week ago blue avatars were citing twitter posts of randos saying early vote turnout was down in NOVA.  Now that NOVA very predictably shot up way above the state average, they are saying early turnout is no measure of enthusiasm.  The mental gymnastics here are absurd.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/tackettdc/status/1452948522412740608