Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I remember a lot of democratic anxiety over the race around this time in 2017. Looking at polls from this time four years ago they were also very close and leaning looks up the guy Gillespie.
 

[BigSerg]

I remember a lot of democratic anxiety over the race around this time in 2017. Looking at polls from this time four years ago they were also very close and leaning looks up the guy Gillespie.
 

Let's take a trip back in time...

Last polls of 2017 election

Monmouth University D+3
IMGE Insights (R) D +1
Change Research D+1
Quinnipiac University D+9
Emerson College D+3
Washington Post D + 8
Suffolk D+4  (bad sign for McAuliffe)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If any Republican ends up winning in Virginia it will only be because they stole the election, like they did to Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, Stacey Abrams, Ben Jealous, Joe Biden, and Brexit.  If you disagree it's because you are a right-wing extremist.

[wbrocks67]

I remember a lot of democratic anxiety over the race around this time in 2017. Looking at polls from this time four years ago they were also very close and leaning looks up the guy Gillespie.
 

Yeah, even though some parts of the election are different, a LOT of what is going on this last week is very reminiscent of the 2017 race. T-Mac won't win Northam margins but pretty sure everyone was doomcasting the last week of that race too, saying that Northam was blowing it because Gillepsie was winning on the issues. It's the same exact thing all over again. Mostly because pundits were pushing really hard for the narrative that Gillepsie was winning the culture war, much like they're doing now with Youngkin.

[Non Swing Voter]

The final RCP average was only 2 points different in the Northam race than it is now.  Those are the facts.

[Matty]

Was there a democratic incumbent president in 2017 with a -10 national approval rating?

Did I miss the political rule that argued all 2017 polling misses will happen 4 years later?

[wbrocks67]

Hopefully in the next week we get:
-one more CBS/YouGov (maybe tomorrow?)
-one more Monmouth (they're doing NJ tomorrow, maybe VA by next Sunday or Monday)
-Washington Post/Scholar poll (they did one in late Oct 2020 and did one in Sept 2021, but nothing yet)
-one more CNU
-one more Wason
-possibly one more Fox?
-possibly one more Emerson?

It doesn't appear Q-Pac is doing VA anymore, which is surprising considering they nailed the race in 2017.

[Matty]

Hopefully in the next week we get:
-one more CBS/YouGov (maybe tomorrow?)
-one more Monmouth (they're doing NJ tomorrow, maybe VA by next Sunday or Monday)
-Washington Post/Scholar poll (they did one in late Oct 2020 and did one in Sept 2021, but nothing yet)
-one more CNU
-one more Wason
-possibly one more Fox?
-possibly one more Emerson?

It doesn't appear Q-Pac is doing VA anymore, which is surprising considering they nailed the race in 2017.

QPAC should be out of business. they suck.

[wbrocks67]

Hopefully in the next week we get:
-one more CBS/YouGov (maybe tomorrow?)
-one more Monmouth (they're doing NJ tomorrow, maybe VA by next Sunday or Monday)
-Washington Post/Scholar poll (they did one in late Oct 2020 and did one in Sept 2021, but nothing yet)
-one more CNU
-one more Wason
-possibly one more Fox?
-possibly one more Emerson?

It doesn't appear Q-Pac is doing VA anymore, which is surprising considering they nailed the race in 2017.

QPAC should be out of business. they suck.

Given their weird R-lean this year, I'd be curious though what they'd come up with lol

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

[President Johnson]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

Well, T-Mac has done a very good job in his first term and putting him back in office would just sort of confirm that.

[Xing]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

To be fair, I think this has been true for a while. Outside of New England, the only states in 2018 to buck their partisan leaning in gubernatorial races were Kansas and Maryland, and I guess you could argue that South Dakota came close.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

Well, T-Mac has done a very good job in his first term and putting him back in office would just sort of confirm that.

Was he considered a great or popular governor when he was in office cause I remember him being considered more or less an unremarkable one .

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

To be fair, I think this has been true for a while. Outside of New England, the only states in 2018 to buck their partisan leaning in gubernatorial races were Kansas and Maryland, and I guess you could argue that South Dakota came close.

Well you had Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, And Oregon was relatively close as well in 2018 given national conditions.

[Xing]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

To be fair, I think this has been true for a while. Outside of New England, the only states in 2018 to buck their partisan leaning in gubernatorial races were Kansas and Maryland, and I guess you could argue that South Dakota came close.

Well you had Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, And Oregon was relatively close as well in 2018 given national conditions.

Right, but the best good Democratic candidates could do against horrible Republican candidates in KY and LA were razor-thin victories, and Buehler was the best Republicans could do and still didn't come that close. Overall, a far cry from 2006, when many states elected governors from the other party.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

To be fair, I think this has been true for a while. Outside of New England, the only states in 2018 to buck their partisan leaning in gubernatorial races were Kansas and Maryland, and I guess you could argue that South Dakota came close.

Well you had Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, And Oregon was relatively close as well in 2018 given national conditions.

Right, but the best good Democratic candidates could do against horrible Republican candidates in KY and LA were razor-thin victories, and Buehler was the best Republicans could do and still didn't come that close. Overall, a far cry from 2006, when many states elected governors from the other party.

Oh yah by 2018 it had become much worse than it had before and we were already down this road but now it seems like we are fully in this super partisan hellhole in ways we even weren’t in 2018

[lfromnj]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

To be fair, I think this has been true for a while. Outside of New England, the only states in 2018 to buck their partisan leaning in gubernatorial races were Kansas and Maryland, and I guess you could argue that South Dakota came close.

Well you had Kentucky and Louisiana in 2019, And Oregon was relatively close as well in 2018 given national conditions.

Right, but the best good Democratic candidates could do against horrible Republican candidates in KY and LA were razor-thin victories, and Buehler was the best Republicans could do and still didn't come that close. Overall, a far cry from 2006, when many states elected governors from the other party.

Was there anything that bad about Rispone?

[wbrocks67]

The fact that Youngkin will most likely lose shows we live in a partisan hellhole now and we may be entering an era where even gubernatorial elections results are like federal race results .

Well, T-Mac has done a very good job in his first term and putting him back in office would just sort of confirm that.

Was he considered a great or popular governor when he was in office cause I remember him being considered more or less an unremarkable one .

His approval was 54/41 in the 2017 exits, so I'd say so

[wbrocks67]

Is this really the debate Youngkin wants in the final week?

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1453099113835270144

[Person Man]

Is this really the debate Youngkin wants in the final week?

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1453099113835270144

He's going to run on banning books?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The fact that the kid grew up to be a lawyer for the NRCC does make a case that he was emotionally scarred by the experience.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Now I understand that both sides are very passionate, but if Biden can keep most of his disagreements mostly behind closed doors than why can't Bernie and joe Manchin act like adults and do the same....

Wasn't it Sinema's approach? 100% behind the doors, contacting only Biden + a couple of his team + couple of Senators. Otherwise it would be leaked.

Hopefully in the next week we get:
-one more CBS/YouGov (maybe tomorrow?)
-one more Monmouth (they're doing NJ tomorrow, maybe VA by next Sunday or Monday)
-Washington Post/Scholar poll (they did one in late Oct 2020 and did one in Sept 2021, but nothing yet)
-one more CNU
-one more Wason
-possibly one more Fox?
-possibly one more Emerson?

It doesn't appear Q-Pac is doing VA anymore, which is surprising considering they nailed the race in 2017.

My guess, you'll try to unskew at least 75% 

[Matty]

No polling so far from

cnn

abc/wapo

qpac

nbc/wsj

gravis

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Is this really the debate Youngkin wants in the final week?

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1453099113835270144

He's going to run on banning books?

Well, per article:

The 2016 bill, had McAuliffe signed it, would have made Virginia the first school in the nation to allow parents to block their children from reading books containing sexually explicit material in school. At the time, McAuliffe reasoned in a statement issued with the veto that because the Board of Education is already considering this issue in a broader and more complete context, I believe House Bill 516 is unnecessary."  

The House tried to override his veto but came one vote shy. In January 2017, the Virginia Board of Education rejected a proposal to warn parents about "sexually explicit" content in their child's assigned reading.

A similar bill, Virginia House Bill 2191, would have allowed parents to review the assigned readings and . That also was vetoed by McAuliffe in 2017.

Give a possibility to parents to opting out their kids from reading "books containing sexually explicit material" or "submit alternative readings if desired" ≠ ban books.


Btw, the article ends with

A poll released on Tuesday by Suffolk University asked if parents or school boards should "have more of an influence on a school's curriculum?" It found 50% of overall respondents and 57% of independents said parents should have more of an influence.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is this really the debate Youngkin wants in the final week?

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1453099113835270144

lol it's so pathetic.  Don't these kids have cable?  And how do they justify their love of Trump?  A total miscreant freak.