AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Tekken_Guy]

I'm surprised Regina Romero hasn't gotten a lot of buzz. She's a Latina so she'd do pretty well with the state's hispanics and she's the mayor of Tucson, the state's second largest city, so she'd be able to drive up the margin in Pima county.

I could see her run for Grijalva's seat when he retires.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think a lot of people underestimate just how radioactive and unlikeable Sinema is. No Democrats are going to vote for her - even the normies are pissed. The McCain-types will, sure, but the AZGOP will run a lunatic. Someone like Lake could win but I doubt the AZGOP will run someone sane.

That leaves indies, who don't really like her either because she is not a maverick. She is a self-serving hack.

There's no more truly narcissistic "Democrat" in politics. Never mind the Clintons - Sinema used progressives to climb the ladder and pulled it up when she reached the top.

Sinema may siphon off "McCain-democrats" who voted for Biden and statewide Ds in non-Treasurer races, but she also gives moderate Republicans who held their nose for the MAGA slate a option out.

[Tekken_Guy]

Imagine being delusional enough to think you can win as independent.

She basically just needed to act and vote like Mark Kelly, who's far from a socialist, and run unopposed for the Democratic nomination and be favored in a general election. Instead, all the grandstanding and attention-seeking for nothing.

Not for nothing, for her she made bank from wall street and private equity firms in exchange for her gutting bills and blocking progress https://twitter.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1601260245342629889 She'l also definitely get a cushy job in the private sector as a lobbyist or something after she comes in third in the general and likely hands some far-right extremist this seat in a three-way race.

Or maybe she helps hand the seat to Gallego by taking votes from the far-right extremist.

[Tekken_Guy]

Has there been any news yet as to what the GOP primary looks like here? Jim Lamon comes to mind since he finished at a decent second place behind Masters this year. Does Andy Biggs go for it if he falls short to McCarthy in the Speaker race?

Kari Lake endorsed Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb who is strongly considering running. Lamon and probably some other people at least consider a run. I think Biggs might just want to push McCarthy around for the next 2 years. Ducey basically just declined a run.

Biggs would just be doing what Banks seems to be going for, pivoting to the senate race if his leadership ambitions don’t come to fruition.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1644404121267580929
https://twitter.com/byelin/status/1644404825503723521

Her goal isn't to win reelection. It's to split the vote so that Republicans flip the seat. If we somehow hold Montana and Ohio, but lose the Senate because of Sinema, I'm going to be furious.

Why exactly would she do this? What is she getting in return for doing that?

How many Democrats/Dem leaners she’s able to siphon off will depend on what the DSCC, Biden, Obama, Hobbs, and Kelly decide to do. If they play hands off, she’ll get more. If they all endorse Gallego, then I think Sinema will be irrelevant.

It's not Democrats that cause issues for Gallego, he will win over 95% of them. The problem is the Dem coalation in Arizona does not have the votes to win without the McCainites who could fall for Sinema. Any erosion there could be fatal for Gallego and it doesn't help him that he is unapologetically progressive. Trump was able to win Arizona in 2016 with 48% of the vote because Gary Johnson got a good chunk of the vote with that demographic.

And don’t Republicans need some voters who held their nose for the likes of Trump and Lake? With Sinema on the ballot, they’ll have a way to oppose Gallego without having to vote for a MAGA Republican

[Tekken_Guy]

Is Lake even running for this? It looks like she is aiming to be Trump's VP.

I doubt Trump has already picked his VP at this point, so she may want a fallback option in case she gets snubbed.

[Tekken_Guy]

Sinema will obviously take more D votes than Rs. I don't see how Ds win this, it's just become a terrible situation.

Stop dooming. Gallego could very well have a large enough lead to survive Sinema.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Sinema runs as an anti-Biden candidate then she takes more votes from the Republican, easily.

But I thought 2024 was supposed to be a choice election, not a referendum?
Also Sinema is more anti-Trump than she is anti-Biden. She didn't vote to convict Biden twice after all, that alone will make it impossible to get any sort of Republican support.
Sinema will take from moderate registered Rs and independents who vote Democrat in most races in the past 5 years

No one who was ever open to voting for a Democrat is going to vote for Sinema at this point.  Also, any general election with Trump on the ballot will inevitably be a referendum on Trump.

And if he’s not the ballot will make it a referendum on Biden.

[Tekken_Guy]

You think Lake is waiting for an update on Trump’s running mate shortlist?

[Tekken_Guy]

Great news for Gallego, especially since some disaffected Republicans who would otherwise hold their nose might end up voring for Sinema (if she even runs). Now just Mastriano is missing for the Pennsylvania race and Republicans are poised to have another cycle with recruitment failures.

I thought Mastriano announced that he wouldn't run for senate.

Right, I missed that one or already forgot. So Lake will be a frontrunner for the title of the most obnoxious Republican senate candidate of the 2024 cycle.

There’s a certain midwestern sheriff who might be challenging her for that title.

[Tekken_Guy]

It feels like 2024 is going to be the same recruitment failure for Republicans as was 2022. The map actually puts them in a decent position to regain the senate majority, even if Biden wins reelection. It would be beyond hilarious if they blow it due to terrible candidates.

They can have a total debacle of a Senate cycle and still pick up the Senate. Manchin's seat is effectively gone and with that, really R seats like Montana or Ohio (not and, or) are all the Rs need to get to 51-49. Now granted, 51-49 would be a huge letdown for Rs who as recently as a year ago were saying that by 2025 they'd have 60 Senate seats. But it'd still put the GOP in the Majority.

If Trump wins, Republicans just need Manchin's seat and they have the senate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Someone fill me in on why Masters would step aside for Lake if he doesn’t think she’d win. Is she just THE top dog of the Arizona GOP that you can’t challenge?

Because Lake is unbeatable in a primary.

She is not. She barely won her first primary in 2022 and got under 50% of the vote in that.

[Tekken_Guy]

Masters feels like he’s shaping up to be the DeSantis to Lake’s Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

Tilt Gallego —> Lean Gallego, maybe even likely if Sinema takes away all those disenfranchised McCainite Republicans

I really don't understand this argument that seems to be the dominant opinion here. The Republicans Sinema would be winning are the McCainite Republicans that are crucial to any Democrat's statewide victory in Arizona. Sinema (2018), Kelly (2020/2022), Biden (2020), and Hobbs (2022) all won by winning over a significant number of Republicans.

Sinema taking away disenfranchised McCainite Republicans hurts Gallego more than Lake because that group is more likely to vote for Gallego than Lake without Sinema in the race.

Remember, the crazy vote is close to 50% (look at how close Lake and Trump came to winning the state). The Democratic winning coalition in Arizona is very unstable and involves winning almost everyone who isn't a far-right wingnut. Even losing a small number can allow the qrazy vote to win with a plurality.

So, while Sinema expects to win over more Republicans than Democrats, they are the type of Republican who would be more likely to vote D in a D vs. R matchup (especially with Kari Lake as the GOP nominee).

Can someone please tell me why Lake isn't favored with this dynamic? Sinema wins away more Republicans than Democrats, but she wins over the Republicans that Democrats need to win.

Because Donald Trump and Kari Lake came close by winning over a large number of “soft” Republican voters who voted against the crazy candidates in the primary, held their noses for the crazy Republicans in the general, and would be more open to Sinema in the 3-way match-up if Lake is the GOP nominee.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/elizacollins1/status/1707382813551690013?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

She has my complete and total endorsement. For the Republican nomination. No matter what Sinema does, this is good news for the Gallego campaign.

Be careful what you wish for.

Even if Lake makes the Senate, she will get no legislation passed, and be a punching bag for Democrats nationwide.

And she'd be pretty much DOA in 2030.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1709569396782272712

Sinema could have had an easy path to renomination, without even a challenge, and be favored for the GE. She didn't have to be a AOC 2.0, she just needed to vote like Mark Kelly. Instead, she chose to throw all away for attention.

She's trying to throw the seat to Republicans in exchange for a nice, cushy lobbying gig after she leaves the Senate. That's why she's going to run.

Or possibly a spot in a new Trump cabinet?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/teamtrump/status/1711934372109050041

Lake gets the Trump endorsement right out of the gate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lamb drop out soon.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hearing rumblings that Sinema may file to run in the Dem primary. I don't know if it is her floating a trial balloon but there is apparently a poll in the field listing her in primary against Gallego.

Gallego would win that primary easily.

[Tekken_Guy]

Sinema has until April 1 to collect 42k signatures to run. She hasn't start, nor has she signed a letter of intent to officially start the process
https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2024/02/20/sinema-campaign-reelection

Realistically, she'll need 65k signatures to avoid issues. It would be impossible to start a volunteer operation now, so she'll need to pay a private company. According to the article, that would cost 1 million dollars at least. She has 10 million in her campaign fund, but she would also need to pay for housing and its peak travel season in Arizona is March.

I am sure she intended to run and win as an independent, to punish the state Democratic Party. But 3 way polls show her losing and she won't give Democrats the satisfaction of beating her so she wont run

I wouldn't be surprised if she runs for President as the No Labels party

Why would she run for president?

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah Kari Lake needs Trump to decisively win AZ at this point if she wants to win her race.

[Tekken_Guy]

Sinema/Phillips No Labels incoming

While I expect Sinema to just retire from politics and get some cushy private sector/lobbying job, I also wouldn’t at all be surprised if this No Labels ticket happens.

I would be because there’s no way it’s going to be two Democrats.

[Tekken_Guy]

Sinema/Phillips No Labels incoming

While I expect Sinema to just retire from politics and get some cushy private sector/lobbying job, I also wouldn’t at all be surprised if this No Labels ticket happens.

I would be because there’s no way it’s going to be two Democrats.

Yeah, but Sinema technically isn’t a Democrat anymore. She’s an Independent! But I get your point, No Labels probably would want a Republican (or Republican leaning independent) on the ticket.

Well there’s no way No Labels will consider her “the Republican” on the ticket even if she technically isn’t a Dem anymore.

[Tekken_Guy]

Say what you will about Sinema. She was effective as a bridge, and I don’t know which Democrats are going to be that liaison to getting things done once her and Manchin leave next year.

[Tekken_Guy]

the governor of the third largest state in the union

who spearheaded the revival of the anti-gay movement and the trans panic

is less powerful than a random senator from vermont

JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESUS

“A random senator from Vermont”.

Don’t you mean a two-time Democratic presidential runner-up and the de facto leader of the American progressive movement for nearly a decade.