KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Pollster]

I definitely never thought I'd see Kobach lose a Republican primary in Kansas. Turnout probably helped as they've already surpassed 2018 numbers with only 71% in.

Definitely a tougher fight for Dems now, but foolish to write this race off. Bollier still has a massive financial advantage and has already had a head start on general election messaging. Wichita area will likely be the key battleground.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Still a Tossup. Trump is Toxic in Kansas

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1290841612277420032?s=20

[Hope For A New Era]

Lean R.

Some polls have been suggesting massive leftward shifts in Johnson County, which (warning: anecdotal) seems to line up with the signs I've seen driving around that area. Bollier is still very able to win this. It'll just be a bit harder.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Lots of money down the drain for both sides

#BOTHSIDES

[😥]

Still a Lean R

[Ferguson97]

Likely R.

[Skye]

Kobach's loss will probably make the KS GOP breath a sigh of relief, yet they can't let their guard down, not with Bollier's impressive war chest and Trump's pathetic numbers. I'm not saying the race is a tossup with Marshall, but I could see the race potentially being close.

[voice_of_resistance]

it looks like this is shaping up to be 2014 all over again. Marshall prob wins by 13-16.

[😥]

There is no way that Marshall wins by high or even medium double digits. I believe this race is Lean R, but maximum for Marshall is win by 7-8 points. I will not rule out any outcome from Bollier +3 to Marshall +8

[SnowLabrador]

Who am I kidding? This is now Safe R.

[wbrocks67]

Anyone acting like this is Safe R is being delusional IMO. I may be eating crow later, but we'll see what that new SurveyUSA poll says...

[morgieb]

I'll keep it as Likely R for now, but I strongly doubt Bollier can run 10+ points ahead of Biden given Marshall is a strong candidate who's within the realms of normalcy.

[Woody]

There is no way that Marshall wins by high or even medium double digits. I believe this race is Lean R, but maximum for Marshall is win by 7-8 points. I will not rule out any outcome from Bollier +3 to Marshall +8

What's actually going to happen:

Marshall +15

[ShadowRocket]

I'm still going to call this Lean R. Marshall probably wins ultimately, but Bollier is still a strong candidate and I wouldn't underestimate her chances.

I'm looking forward to see some polling here.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe R

[wbrocks67]

I'll keep it as Likely R for now, but I strongly doubt Bollier can run 10+ points ahead of Biden given Marshall is a strong candidate who's within the realms of normalcy.

Who says Marshall is a strong candidate? His fundraising was also very lackluster.

[Roll Roons]

I'll keep it as Likely R for now, but I strongly doubt Bollier can run 10+ points ahead of Biden given Marshall is a strong candidate who's within the realms of normalcy.

Who says Marshall is a strong candidate? His fundraising was also very lackluster.

He's a generic and inoffensive, and that really should be enough. He's not exceptionally strong, but he's also not actively terrible like Kobach.

[S019]

I'm going to be bold and say this is Tilt/Lean R with Marshall, there's reports of Trump's own internals showing a single digit race in Kansas, meaning that this race will be very close with Marshall. Also we have a poll coming soon so let's see what it says, but the people saying "Safe R" are jumping to conclusions far too quickly.

[VPH]

Wonder if Hamilton hurts Marshall more because while his tone is more Kobach-like, he's not Kris.

Guess I had it backwards

[YE]

Likely R.

Marshall should win but if he implodes down the stretch, he could lose.

[Xing]

Maybe Marshall could lose if it’s an absolute blue tidal wave or if he runs a really bad campaign, but I’d say it’s a strong Likely R at least.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Republican internals show Trump trailing in Kansas and all Bollier has to do is make ads with Marshall pictures next to Trump and talk about how he didn't stand up to him. It's not that hard. And @Xing, at this point it looks like it will be a landslide election. Maybe that will change later, but for now, it looks like this is going to a national blowout

[tmthforu94]

My hope is that with GOP vote starting to coalesce, we'll see a poll sometime later this week or next week that has Marshall up high single digits, at which point Democrats will start to shift focus to other places. Don't want to see my airwaves completely flooded for the next ~90 days!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Well so much for that. On the plus side we won't have to worry about a potential Senator Kobach, and maybe he can go away forever now.