KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Greedo punched first]

Is Marshall really going to win the primary? I thought establishment candidates would do poorly in this environment after Scott Tipton lost.

[Matty]

Well, there goes a potential D pickup.

it was a longshot anyway.

[MT Treasurer]

The general election is still competitive even with Marshall, just less so than with Kobach.

Agreed, but in this case I think it was the difference between Tilt/Lean D and Tilt/Lean R, so it’s a much-needed boost for the GOP.

[Matty]

Is Marshall really going to win the primary? I thought establishment candidates would do poorly in this environment after Scott Tipton lost.

establishment overall isn't doing very well, but kobach is damaged goods.

[redjohn]

Well, there goes a potential D pickup.

it was a longshot anyway.

True. Kobach probably would've ended up winning by a few points.

[DrScholl]

From what I've heard Marshall isn't a lock to win this seat either, but we will see what happens.

[Hope For A New Era]

Well, there goes a potential D pickup.

it was a longshot anyway.

True. Kobach probably would've ended up winning by a few points.

Like how he won by -6 points in 2018?

[MT Treasurer]

Well, there goes a potential D pickup.

it was a longshot anyway.

True. Kobach probably would've ended up winning by a few points.

Like how he won by -6 points in 2018?

Again, people will just say that this time would have been different because it’s a "federal race", KS last elected a Democratic Senator in the 1930s, etc.

Let’s not rehash the same predictable talking points again and again.

[DrScholl]

Well, there goes a potential D pickup.

it was a longshot anyway.

True. Kobach probably would've ended up winning by a few points.

Like how he won by -6 points in 2018?

Republicans will pretend like that race never happened.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1290824704111136768

DDHQ calls it for Marshall.

[Greedo punched first]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1290824704111136768

DDHQ calls it for Marshall.

CA-21 2018 was originally called for Valadao in the general election, but he ended up losing.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1290824704111136768

DDHQ calls it for Marshall.

Marshall's victory makes it more difficult for Democrats to win Kansas. It is probably closer to Likely than Lean Republican now. The Democrats' long losing streak in the state looks set to continue this year.

[Upstater]

I didn't think Marshall would be winning by this much.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs werent gonna gift wrap the Senate to the Ds with Kobach. But, the Dems have residuals in GA in case they win NC, CO and ME, but lose IA and AZ

Ernst and McSally are more formidable than polls indicate

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Lots of money down the drain for both sides

[tmthforu94]

TM PROJECTION: Roger Marshall will defeat Kris Kobach tonight. Tracey Mann and Jake LaTurner will also win.

[MT Treasurer]

I didn't think Marshall would be winning by this much.

Are there signs that the Democratic meddling backfired at the last minute? I’m not saying that this is necessarily what happened and I know that Marshall apparently had a sizable advantage before Democratic outside groups started attacking him, but I didn’t expect this kind of margin either.

[tmthforu94]

I didn't think Marshall would be winning by this much.

Are there signs that the Democratic meddling backfired at the last minute? I’m not saying that this is necessarily what happened and I know that Marshall apparently had a sizable advantage before Democratic outside groups started attacking him, but I didn’t expect this kind of margin either.

I think it backfired and allowed the race to swing back to Marshall. That was my closing line with folks I know.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I didn't think Marshall would be winning by this much.

Are there signs that the Democratic meddling backfired at the last minute? I’m not saying that this is necessarily what happened and I know that Marshall apparently had a sizable advantage before Democratic outside groups started attacking him, but I didn’t expect this kind of margin either.

I think it backfired and allowed the race to swing back to Marshall. That was my closing line with folks I know.

I think Republicans tend to learn their lesson the hardway after the crazy loses to a Democrat in a general election. For example, see how Sharron Angle and Roy Moore's campaigns went down in future primaries after blowing high-profile races to Democrats.

[Webnicz]

I didn't think Marshall would be winning by this much.

Are there signs that the Democratic meddling backfired at the last minute? I’m not saying that this is necessarily what happened and I know that Marshall apparently had a sizable advantage before Democratic outside groups started attacking him, but I didn’t expect this kind of margin either.

I think it backfired and allowed the race to swing back to Marshall. That was my closing line with folks I know.

I think Republicans tend to learn their lesson the hardway after the crazy loses to a Democrat in a general election. For example, see how Sharron Angle and Roy Moore's campaigns went down in future primaries after blowing high-profile races to Democrats.

Not always true. McSally who is up next lost embarrassingly lost in 2018 after being overhyped. She’s up next for her primary tonight. GOP voters are basically giving her the approval tonight to loose the second senate seat to Dems.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I didn't think Marshall would be winning by this much.

Are there signs that the Democratic meddling backfired at the last minute? I’m not saying that this is necessarily what happened and I know that Marshall apparently had a sizable advantage before Democratic outside groups started attacking him, but I didn’t expect this kind of margin either.

I think it backfired and allowed the race to swing back to Marshall. That was my closing line with folks I know.

I think Republicans tend to learn their lesson the hardway after the crazy loses to a Democrat in a general election. For example, see how Sharron Angle and Roy Moore's campaigns went down in future primaries after blowing high-profile races to Democrats.

Not always true. McSally who is up next lost embarrassingly lost in 2018 after being overhyped. She’s up next for her primary tonight. GOP voters are basically giving her the approval tonight to loose the second senate seat to Dems.

She's not comparable at all. The other losers are who the establishment never wanted to win their original primaries in the first place.

[here2view]

Safe R now.

Bollier isn’t getting +10 of Trump voters. This is the same song and dance as 2014 when we heard that Orman had a shot. Sorry I’m not falling for that again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A strong likely R. There was still that one poll where he was only ahead of Bollier by 1, but he'll prolly end up winning by 13 or so. My model moves KS-Sen to 92% R

[Xing]

Well, I’m glad that Kobach isn’t getting anywhere near the Senate, and I think people overestimated Bollier’s chances against him. Back to Safe R (or possibly a strong Likely R, depending on polling), and Democrats have plenty of other opportunities.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, I’m glad that Kobach isn’t getting anywhere near the Senate, and I think people overestimated Bollier’s chances against him. Back to Safe R (or possibly a strong Likely R, depending on polling), and Democrats have plenty of other opportunities.

They do (I don’t think anyone denied that), but it’s races like this one which will decide whether Republicans can win back/hold the Senate in 2022, so it’s not unimportant at all. Also, expanding the playing field doesn’t exactly hurt, especially since Democrats aren’t guaranteed to win the Senate this year even if they’re looking good right now.