Washington state megathread

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Looking at past gubernatorial elections, it now looked pretty amazing and improbable that former Governor Gary Locke did so well in Eastern Washington in 1996 and 2000.  He won 57% of the vote in Spokane Co, 51% in Walla Walla Co and came within a point of winning the GOP bastions of Benton and Franklin Co in 2000.  And this was running against a candidate with a plan from God in 1996 and a talk-show host in 2000 - natural constituencies for conservative Eastern Washington.  On the other hand, he seemed to have slightly underperformed in King Co (66%) by today's standards.

My question is has the state become more polarized in the ensuing years?  Was Gary Locke still relatively popular when he left office and how do Washingtonians today view him in general?  Was he viewed as governor of one Washington or just another Subaru driving liberal from Seattle?   Thanks for any comments.

[bgwah]

Gary Locke was pretty moderate while Craswell and Carlson were very terrible candidates. I think that's an important thing to keep in mind.

It may not show up in the gubernatorial election, but 2000 seems to be the election where traditionally Democratic bastions in Eastern Washington (like Ferry, Pend Oreille, and Asotin counties) convert to the GOP for good. They loved them some George W. Bush. Still, the East-West polarization had already gotten pretty extreme by the time Gary Locke showed up.

The biggest change, in my opinion, is the GOP's more recent collapse in Metro Seattle, particularly suburban King County. John McCain didn't even break 40% in Sammamish, lolz.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So Washington has another waste of a Lt. Gov. office like Minnesota. There's a small movement in the Minn. legislature to abolish the Lt. Gov. option and let the Sec of State be next in succession but for some reason no one seems to want to get behind it. This is despite the current Lt. Gov. being basically the most unpopular political figure in state besides Michele Bachmann possibly (in a nutshell she was also Sec of Transportation due to Lt. Gov. being a nothing job, and became the scapegoat for the bridge collapse. The Senate thus refused to reapprove her as Sec of Transportation.)

How many states have a Lt. Governor with any duties? The only ones I can think of are Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah, where the Lt. Governor basically does the job of the Secretary of State.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So Washington has another waste of a Lt. Gov. office like Minnesota. There's a small movement in the Minn. legislature to abolish the Lt. Gov. option and let the Sec of State be next in succession but for some reason no one seems to want to get behind it. This is despite the current Lt. Gov. being basically the most unpopular political figure in state besides Michele Bachmann possibly (in a nutshell she was also Sec of Transportation due to Lt. Gov. being a nothing job, and became the scapegoat for the bridge collapse. The Senate thus refused to reapprove her as Sec of Transportation.)

How many states have a Lt. Governor with any duties? The only ones I can think of are Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah, where the Lt. Governor basically does the job of the Secretary of State.

In Texas the Lt. Governor has more power than the Governor.

[Meeker]

To clarify, the Lt. Governor here does have some official duties - he presides over the State Senate (and not like the Vice President who "presides" over the US Senate but never shows up; our guy actually does it everyday they're in session). No administrative duties though.

[CultureKing]

Looking at past gubernatorial elections, it now looked pretty amazing and improbable that former Governor Gary Locke did so well in Eastern Washington in 1996 and 2000.  He won 57% of the vote in Spokane Co, 51% in Walla Walla Co and came within a point of winning the GOP bastions of Benton and Franklin Co in 2000.  And this was running against a candidate with a plan from God in 1996 and a talk-show host in 2000 - natural constituencies for conservative Eastern Washington.  On the other hand, he seemed to have slightly underperformed in King Co (66%) by today's standards.

My question is has the state become more polarized in the ensuing years?  Was Gary Locke still relatively popular when he left office and how do Washingtonians today view him in general?  Was he viewed as governor of one Washington or just another Subaru driving liberal from Seattle?   Thanks for any comments.

Personally I saw Locke as being a very popular but truthfully mediocre governor. While he could bring a large number of people together he also was unwilling to put himself out there on certain issues that might be contentious. Basically he was terrified of making people angry it seems. We will have to see what comes of him in the next few years. I have a feeling he will not be done in the political world after he finishes up as the commerce secretary.

[Meeker]

Locke accomplished nothing as Governor and then tried to cut taxes. He was a horrible Governor and a mediocre Democrat.

But his new job as Commerce Secretary is a perfect fit for him. A do-nothing man for a do-nothing department.

In short: I am not a fan.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He should change his surname to "Bailey".

[The Mikado]

So Washington has another waste of a Lt. Gov. office like Minnesota. There's a small movement in the Minn. legislature to abolish the Lt. Gov. option and let the Sec of State be next in succession but for some reason no one seems to want to get behind it. This is despite the current Lt. Gov. being basically the most unpopular political figure in state besides Michele Bachmann possibly (in a nutshell she was also Sec of Transportation due to Lt. Gov. being a nothing job, and became the scapegoat for the bridge collapse. The Senate thus refused to reapprove her as Sec of Transportation.)

How many states have a Lt. Governor with any duties? The only ones I can think of are Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah, where the Lt. Governor basically does the job of the Secretary of State.

In Texas the Lt. Governor has more power than the Governor.

True, but even in Texas, the bully pulpit of being Governor and the possibility to raise public outcry and pressure on the legislature does help augment the admittedly absurdly-weak office of Governor.  Also, the Governor's power to call the legislature into special session is a lot more relevant in most states: Texas has what might be the laziest legislature in the First World (certainly the laziest with such a large, important jurisdiction), and the words "special session" strike fear into their hearts.

I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just saying that the Governor of Texas does have some real influence.  The Lt. Governor is "the most powerful" official, but it's a very smoke-filled-back-room power.

[Ogre Mage]

Looking at past gubernatorial elections, it now looked pretty amazing and improbable that former Governor Gary Locke did so well in Eastern Washington in 1996 and 2000.  He won 57% of the vote in Spokane Co, 51% in Walla Walla Co and came within a point of winning the GOP bastions of Benton and Franklin Co in 2000.  And this was running against a candidate with a plan from God in 1996 and a talk-show host in 2000 - natural constituencies for conservative Eastern Washington.  On the other hand, he seemed to have slightly underperformed in King Co (66%) by today's standards.

My question is has the state become more polarized in the ensuing years?  Was Gary Locke still relatively popular when he left office and how do Washingtonians today view him in general?  Was he viewed as governor of one Washington or just another Subaru driving liberal from Seattle?   Thanks for any comments.

Locke wasn't very popular when he left office.  During his first term, he had sky-high approval ratings in the 60%-70% range.  When the tech bubble burst early in his second term, his approvals slid all the way into the 30s.  He eventually recovered somewhat, but IIRC he left office with approvals in the mid-40s -- not horrid, but mediocre at best.

Locke was a terrific campaigner and knew how to collect political capital but wasn't very good about spending it.  It often seemed that when having to choose between maintaining his popularity or actually getting something done, he chose the former.  There is merit to the charge that he didn't do much, although in fairness he dealt with a GOP controlled state legislature for a good portion of his term.

Ideologically, Locke was certainly no firebreathing liberal.  He was a left-leaning centrist and very cautious.

To his credit, Locke's tenure was scandal-free and his governance was competent (which is more than his predecessor Mike Lowry can say).  But compared to the bold moves pushed by Gov. Gregoire (the gas tax, beefed up funding and programs for education and health, environmental initiatives for green jobs and Puget Sound cleanup, passing gay rights bills, etc.) his record looks meek by comparison.  

[Meeker]

I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

[Alcon]

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

ugh, is that seriously gaining traction?

[Meeker]

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

ugh, is that seriously gaining traction?

Eh, difficult to say. The County Auditors have pretty significant sway over election law and can make a pretty good case against it. And Sam Hunt has never been too crazy about the idea IIRC (but that could be wrong).

[Landslide Lyndon]

I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.

[Alcon]

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

ugh, is that seriously gaining traction?

Eh, difficult to say. The County Auditors have pretty significant sway over election law and can make a pretty good case against it. And Sam Hunt has never been too crazy about the idea IIRC (but that could be wrong).

I would seriously have a coronary if they did that.  College GOTV in Oregon must be the most stressful thing imaginable.  Ugh.

The only thing wrong with the current system is that it's possible to cast a ballot after polls have closed.  I don't know much from the end of the auditor, but does it cost more to count ballots that arrive after Election Day or something?  Because "delayed election results" is seriously the worst argument ever.

[Meeker]

FWIW in 2008 the bill got a hearing in the House but no action; Senate didn't even have a hearing. So unless something major has changed in the past year I don't think they'll do it (and I'm not sure Gregoire has enough friends in the Legislature for her getting behind it to make too much of a difference unless she decides to make it a priority, which would be weird).

The proposed bill also moves the ballot tabulation start time to 8 o'clock the morning before... personally I wouldn't be too opposed to doing that regardless of the fate of the ballot return portion of the bill.

[Meeker]

I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.

Her low numbers are an indication that she gets stuff done. Also around 50% of the state will never really like her because they still think she stole the 2004 election.

[Ogre Mage]

I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.

Some of Gregoire's suffering approval has to do with the divisiveness of the 2004 elections and the fact she's willing to spend political capital to achieve goals, like Meeker and I said.  And many governors have bad approvals these days given the economy.

There is, however, another element.  Whereas Locke was a good campaigner, Gregoire isn't.  I don't think the glad-handing aspect of politics is her strength.  And the governor's communications office is often regarded as the weak link in her chain -- I hear there's been a lot of turnover there.

[bgwah]

Whoever was Governor was going to have to make some serious budget cuts and suffer a significant loss in popularity for it... Relying on the sales tax so much is just asking for trouble come recession time.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.

Some of Gregoire's suffering approval has to do with the divisiveness of the 2004 elections and the fact she's willing to spend political capital to achieve goals, like Meeker and I said.  And many governors have bad approvals these days given the economy.

There is, however, another element.  Whereas Locke was a good campaigner, Gregoire isn't.  I don't think the glad-handing aspect of politics is her strength.  And the governor's communications office is often regarded as the weak link in her chain -- I hear there's been a lot of turnover there.

Nice analysis alcon, bgwah, Ogre.  My impression of Gov Locke was he's a likable guy who governed competently without making a lot of waves.    You know, being subjected to the endless vitriol directed at Gregoire in the media you'd think she's in the same league as Granholm, Patterson and Schwarzenegger.  Her record has been pretty moderate and she's navigated through budget issues without raising taxes or causing a California style meltdown.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Question: does anyone sees a future for Gregoire after 2012 in a possible Obama administration?
She doesn't have many options since both Washington senators are relatively young and safe.

[Meeker]

Question: does anyone sees a future for Gregoire after 2012 in a possible Obama administration?
She doesn't have many options since both Washington senators are relatively young and safe.

She'd make a phenomenal Attorney General for Obama's second term. In terms of likelihood I'd place them fairly high - being an early supporter of Obama certainly helps her in that sense as well. She was also mentioned earlier this year as a possible Supreme Court Justice.

[CultureKing]

Question: does anyone sees a future for Gregoire after 2012 in a possible Obama administration?
She doesn't have many options since both Washington senators are relatively young and safe.

She'd make a phenomenal Attorney General for Obama's second term. In terms of likelihood I'd place them fairly high - being an early supporter of Obama certainly helps her in that sense as well. She was also mentioned earlier this year as a possible Supreme Court Justice.

I could also see her as a supreme court justice. And I definitely think her early support for Obama was important, she was the only one of the big three (the senators plus governor) who endorsed Obama and at least helped him a bit as he cruised to a huge victory here.

[bgwah]

Justice Gregoire... I like it!

[Ogre Mage]

I would say there is a good chance she is interested in a Cabinet appointment during Obama's second term and a good chance she would be chosen.

One rather little known fact is that then Attorney General Gregoire was the WA Dems first choice to challenge Slade Gorton in 2000.  She took a pass because of her family situation and Maria Cantwell narrowly defeated Gorton.  What I thought was notable about this article from Feb. 1999 was:

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http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19990213&slug=2943992

It suggests Gregoire was interested in a Cabinet appointment as far back as the 1990s and there was reciprocal interest from the Clinton-Gore crowd.  It makes one wonder what might have happened to Gregoire if Gore had won in 2000.  And her political stature is even larger now.

Having watched the politics of the Supreme Court, I don't think she will be chosen for that position.