Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

- And on a personal note, the candidate for State House whose campaign I'm supposed to be managing doesn't have an opponent as of right now, and we don't know of any in the wings. Kind of pathetic on the local Republican Party's part - just 5 years ago they controlled all three seats in this district, and Bush actually won it with 51%.

I have no idea what you're going to have me do after the PAC stuff now. 

Kerry got the 51% actually, but I think it used to be really solidly GOP on the state level, didn't it? If the GOP can't recruit for seats like these, they might as well just rename to the Eastern Washington and Lewis County Party and stop bothering.

[Alcon]

Looks like these are the presumptive races.

Governor: Christine Gregoire* (D) v. Dino Rossi (R)
Lt. Governor: Brad Owen* (D) v. Marcia McCraw (R)
Secretary of State: James Osgood (D) v. Sam Reed* (R)
State Treasurer: Jim McIntire/ChangMook Sohn (D) v. Allan Martin (R)
State Auditor: Brian Sonntag* (D) v. Dick McEntee (R)
State Attorney General: John Ladenburg (D) v. Rob McKenna* (R)
Commissioner of Public Lands: Peter Goldmark (D) v. Doug Sutherland* (R)
Insurance Commissioner: Mike Kreidler* (D) v. John Adams (R)

I recognize most of the non-factors.  Marcia McCraw is a do-gooder/Seattle lawyer, Dick McEntee's wife was an anti-abortion activist and he's a local GOP guy in the Tacoma suburbs and John Adams is a re-hash candidate from 2004.

But who's James Osgood?

[Alcon]

Oh, my bad.  It's Jason Osgood.  When I Googled James Osgood, some Democratic CEO from Sammamish came up.

So, he's angry about mail voting and runs this blog, and that's it?

This may be the first time the Democrats have taken no serious effort to challenge Reed whatsoever...should be interesting to see how big of a landslide he gets.

[Alcon]

Mohammad Hasan Said files!

No politician refuses to use "the" in ballot statements quite like him

[Alcon]

Congressional competition.  This year's round of jokes, for state outsiders' sake:

1st – Jay Inslee* (D) v. Larry Ishmael (R)
Ishmael is a business consultant and Issaquah School Board member.  Unfortunately for him, Issaquah isn't any more in the First District than it was the last time he ran, so he's still a filthy carpetbagger.

2nd – Rick Larsen* (D) v. Rick Bart (R)
Rick Bart is the Snohomish County Sheriff and uses the email address theoriginalposse@live.com.  God help us all.

3rd – Brian Baird* (D) v. Michael Delavar (R)
Michael Delavar is a pilot with a suspiciously good web site that makes it obvious that he's a right-winged Paulite.

4th – George Fearing (D) v. "Doc" Hastings* (R)
According to the web site of Leavy, Shultz, Davis & Fearing, George Fearing is a "brilliant attorney and an indispensable asset to our firm."  Fortunately for Leavy, Shultz, Davis & Fearing, he will continue to be.

5th – Mark Mays (D) v. Cathy McMorris Rodgers* (R)
Mark Mays is a Spokane psychologist, attorney and professor, which probably one-ups challenger Barbara Lampert’s progressive platform of “I’m retired, so I’ll file for every office in the world ever.”

6th – Norm Dicks* (D) v. Doug Cloud (R)
Who cares?

7th – Jim McDermott* (D) v. Steve Beren (R)
Beren is a former socialist who found Jesus after 9/11 and apparently doesn’t realize that no one really cares.

8th – Darcy Burner (D) v. Dave Reichert* (R)
Actually somewhat competitive.  Personally, I think the Democrats would have been better-off with Rodney Tom.

9th – Adam Smith* (D)
Unopposed so far, surprisingly.

[Alcon]

Someone named "Cleaver" has registered under the SalmonYoga Party.

This is officially a joke.

Someone named Thomas Thomas is a Republican candidate in the 24th.  Apparently it's even a real name.  And Will Baker has filed!  Hooray!

[Alcon]

Jim, I'm convinced.  You are a robot.

[Alcon]

Bah...I liked the Korean dude a lot more.  Looks like I'm voting for Martin.

[Alcon]

Also, which races will be one-party or involve a third party at the GE level in your opinion?

Only statewide office with any real potential of this is State Treasurer, and it won't happen.  WA-7 has been mentioned too, but none of the non-McDermotts are enough to block the reflexive GOP vote for Steve Baren.

Other than that, no Republican has filed for:

- District 1 (Pos. 1 & 2) [Bothell-S Snohomish County]
- District 19 (all seats) [Aberdeen-Kelso/Longview]
- District 22 (Pos. 1) [Olympia]
- District 24 (Senate) [Olympic Peninsula]
- District 28 (Pos. 2) [University Place-DuPont]
- District 32 (Pos. 2) [North Lake Washington-Woodway]
- District 34 (all seats) [West Seattle-Vashon]
- District 37 (Pos. 1) [East Seattle]
- District 38 (Pos. 2) [Tulalip-Everett]
- District 40 (Pos. 1) [San Juans-Bellingham]
- District 41 (Pos. 2) [Bellevue-Issaquah]
- District 43 (Pos. 1) [Central Seattle]
- District 49 (Senate) [Vancouver]

Total: 18

Assuming we're counting Rep. Brendan Williams filing as "Progressive Dem. Party" as Democrat.

And no Democrat filed for:

- District 7 (Pos. 2) [NE Wash.]
- District 9 (Senate) [SE Wash.]
- District 12 (all seats) [N-Central Wash.]
- District 13 (both seats) [Ellensburg-Moses Lake]
- District 14 (Senate) [Yakima West]
- District 16 (Senate) [Pasco-Walla Walla]

Total: 9

District 40 Pos. 2 will be Democrat vs. Green.

[Alcon]

Allan's endorsed by Murphy...I see him getting more cross-over mostly by virtue of that.  Not that Republicans probably pay much attention to that race.

[Alcon]

Yea, Martin putting that in his voters pamphlet (which is where the vast majority of voters will make their decision) was a smart move. The only real way is if Democratic base and Independents split just right and, again, if there's really low Republican turnout.

And you're aware of the "interesting" situation involving the two running against Flannigan, right?

I also didn't know you were on a first name basis with the Republican nominee for State Treasurer

Oops, haha.  I have no idea where that came from.  Martin.

But, yeah, that's fun to follow.  Honestly the guy seems a little nutso, although I don't know him.  You probably might

[Alcon]

I actually assumed he was crazy because of the letter he sent to Dale Woodard. 

So, the guy isn't actually a McCain supporter?  Now I'm really confused.

[Alcon]

I actually assumed he was crazy because of the letter he sent to Dale Woodard. 

So, the guy isn't actually a McCain supporter?  Now I'm really confused.

Yea, I don't quite understand why they were trying to knock Woodard out of the race. It seems like having him would split the Republican base and make it easier for Smeall to advance to the general.

But no, he's not a McCain supporter. He's listed as a Likely Democrat in our database.

Yeah, he voted D in the primary (hence the Likely D designation - it's the only thing causing that), but all of his ballot statements go on about "McCain, Rossi, Wiley for a better future!"  He totally has me confused.

Unless he went to the caucus and really wanted to vote in the advisory primary (and legally), it don't make much sense to me.

[Alcon]

Preliminary data I'm seeing says that Democratic turnout is much, much higher than Republican.

How could they tell that without having seen ballots?  People in the Dems' database as being Democrats are turning out more, or what?  I think that might be slightly skewed, since the Dems have caucus info for them and not the GOP.  So, there are probably a lot more active Republicans (if they didn't vote in the primary) who fall under the radar.

[Alcon]

Well, voted.  Left PCO blank, since I forgot I'm in a new precinct now and don't know either.  Switched my SPI vote to Fackler.  I'll be voting Kreidler almost certainly, but Fackler is only a joke, while Adams is a joke and a half.

I also switched from Johnson to Beecher.  Johnson is safe, and Beecher seems very amiable, and kind of libertarian-ish (but not in a libertarian way.)  Besides, Vulliet (two jokes in one bad Italian suit) has no chance.

You realize that they don't appear on the November ballot, right?

Ughh, I'm so bad at this.  Oh, well.  Armijo is almost certainly safe.  My first mis-vote!  This can be our little secret (I'll kill you all in your sleep if I have to)

[Alcon]

I'm disappointed by Osgood.  I was hoping he'd bring a valid discussion on arcane balloting issues to the table.  Apparently, he mostly brings crazy.  The Stranger's Election Control Board endorsed Reed and called Osgood "paranoid," "sweaty" and a "nervous wreck."  They also said he went off on "Orwellian tirades about ballot barcodes."  That's the harshest I've ever seen them to anyone who agreed to meet with them.  And he's a Democrat.  Their I-26 anti-endorsement (non-partisan King County offices) capped off with: "if sex offenders have to register, so should Republicans."  They like their Democrats.  I haven't gotten the crazy vibe otherwise, but still.

They did make an exception on that, endorsing "anyone but Brad Owen."  Apparently he uses all of his time spent not being Governor to "tour the state with his crappy-ass rock band and crusade against pot."  Several inanimate objects received the endorsement over him.  I voted for the "empty bag of chips" (Marcia McCraw) over the "crusty come sock" (Jim Weist).  Ah, Seattle!

[Alcon]

As much as I love the man, that's a pretty accurate account of Brad Owen. He has a fairly large staff and no one really knows what they, or him, do. He also has a very extensive alcohol collection in his office.

Yet he's anti-pot?  I might have to vote for the Republican.

Because, you know, if you want revolutionary government, and internally consistent substance use positions, you vote for the Washington GOP.  Yeah.

[Alcon]

Haha.  I kind of hope he'll run for something eventually.  He's a very sharp guy.  I'm not voting on pot, though, so it doesn't matter anyway.  It's a useless office and Owen hasn't blown it up, so I'll probably go for him.  I assumed the Stranger was mashing things to be edgy anyway.

By the way, just noticed -- happy birthday.

[Alcon]

Pierce County turnout stands currently at 20%.  Returns are down 18% (not percentage points) from 2004, which is pretty sad-ish, considering that more people are vote-by-mail now.  That is, uselessly, up 2% from 2006.

King County is doing even worse, at 17%.  Pierce County typically has the state's lowest turnout.  This probably says more about KingCo having awful turnout than Pierce doing well.

Turnout elsewhere seems wildly variant:  27% in Benton, 19% in Clark, 37% (!) in Pacific, 17% in Snohomish, 24% in Spokane and 27% in Yakima.

Chelan County gives too much information (file), none of it what I wanted, but apparently only about 1-in-200 voters so far forgot to sign their ballots.

[Alcon]

The Seattle Times's ridiculously un-random straw poll:

SPI
Dorn 57%
Bergeson 32%

Supreme Court
Fairhurst 66%
Bond 34%

Johnson 77%
Beecher 16%
Vulliet 7%

Secretary of State
Reed (R) 67%
Osgood (D) 25%
Montgomery (C) 5%

State Treasurer
Martin (R) 53%
McIntire (D) 28%
Sohn (D) 20%

State Auditor
Sonntag (D) 73%
McEntee (R) 21%
Freeman (C) 6%

Lt. Governor
Owen (D) 59%
McCraw (R) 21%
Wiest (R) 8%
Bell (D) 6%
Peck (C) 6%

For some reason, Governor and WA-8 only have like 10 votes apiece.  The rest have several hundred.  Anyway, take that as you will.

Edit: Which, since it has Larsen leading Bart 50-46, should be with a grain of salt.

[Alcon]

Biggest surprised of the night: WTF @ 27th, Position 1?

My mind is still being blown.  Seriously, who did the Republicans vote for in that race?  Either Democratic turnout was astronomically above the 63-35 (or so) split that's standard for us, or Flannigan drained a huge number of votes from Woodard.

[Alcon]

WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?

I think Eunice Coker's staff messed up.

The 28th LD Senate race is currently tied, 5790-5790.

[Alcon]

Also interesting that a "No Party Preference" person got 10% for Insurance Commissioner.

He's part of the Spokane County Republican establishment--no idea why he ran as an indy.

[Alcon]

You will notice that for most larger counties, the next update is at the end of the day on Wednesday.  For smaller counties, it looks like they will wait until Friday.  One outlier is Columbia County which looks like they will wait for the two week period to be finished before they count again.

Important note:  Don't trust those estimates, especially "next count" or "ballots left to count."  King County's first projection (based on those numbers) was turnout of 18%--and they haven't updated "ballots left to count" since.

[Alcon]

Could someone do a map for the SPI race?

Pretty darn boring.  Like the last time, Bergeson won strongly everywhere, except where there's a lot of insurgent voting.  And for some reason, the Wenatchee metro, which hated her in 2004 too.

I can make a map, but were you looking for a data upload?  Probably a lot more interesting.