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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  VA-Gov 2021: Fairfax still planning on running
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Author Topic: VA-Gov 2021: Fairfax still planning on running  (Read 8195 times)
Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #125 on: May 18, 2020, 08:18:08 am »

It's an absolute scandal that Fairfax is still in office & that he hasn't been impeached- the allegations against him were extremely substanial & irrc he failed in his efforts to sue the outlet that reported the interviews.

If he was somehow the nominee I'd not vote for him & I'm sure if he does run people are going to have very easy work in a primary.

I was curiouis what he was doing & it's hilarous to see he's been reduced to writing public letters to Northam about covid as he's being completely ignored by the Governor. Again the biggest rise in politics in the last decade is the lack of shame...

I also found this quote from Fairfax which frankly seems quite insulting...

Quote
If you take some of these smear tactics and campaigns into the black church, they’ll be shut down immediately because that’s not what people want to see,” he said.

https://wamu.org/story/19/12/20/virginias-lt-governor-justin-fairfax-is-running-for-governor-despite-sexual-assault-allegations/
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #126 on: May 18, 2020, 08:48:42 am »



Which is why Carroll-Foy is running. Perriello, by this point, is really old news.

Perriello's an upstanding guy, but if he couldn't find that photo in Northam's yearbook, electoral politics isn't for him. 
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #127 on: May 18, 2020, 09:44:22 am »

It's an absolute scandal that Fairfax is still in office & that he hasn't been impeached- the allegations against him were extremely substanial & irrc he failed in his efforts to sue the outlet that reported the interviews.

If he was somehow the nominee I'd not vote for him & I'm sure if he does run people are going to have very easy work in a primary.

I was curiouis what he was doing & it's hilarous to see he's been reduced to writing public letters to Northam about covid as he's being completely ignored by the Governor. Again the biggest rise in politics in the last decade is the lack of shame...

I also found this quote from Fairfax which frankly seems quite insulting...

Quote
If you take some of these smear tactics and campaigns into the black church, they’ll be shut down immediately because that’s not what people want to see,” he said.

https://wamu.org/story/19/12/20/virginias-lt-governor-justin-fairfax-is-running-for-governor-despite-sexual-assault-allegations/

Yup, the dude should have resigned. Much more so than Northam, who did a stupid thing as young man. This should be a much bigger deal than the allegations against Biden, which have serious credibility problems.

Anyways, if McAuliffe jumps in, the race is probably over.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #128 on: May 18, 2020, 09:48:29 am »

Tom Perriello should be the next Governor of Virginia.

He should’ve been the current Governor of VA and he would’ve been a contender for President this year.
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Blair
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« Reply #129 on: May 18, 2020, 10:10:03 am »



Which is why Carroll-Foy is running. Perriello, by this point, is really old news.

Perriello's an upstanding guy, but if he couldn't find that photo in Northam's yearbook, electoral politics isn't for him. 

It might be because I don't work in the money pit that is US politics but Northam wouldn't really strike me as someone you'd send campaign staff (who in a primary election are an absolute premium) to dig around in his past- its a complete stab in the dark at the best of times and there's an alternative universe where Perriello lost the primary because he spent £50,000 earmarked for ads on an overpaid law firm.

Besides its as much an indictment on the RNC who actually did have the resources to find this sort of stuff.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #130 on: May 18, 2020, 11:06:08 am »



Which is why Carroll-Foy is running. Perriello, by this point, is really old news.

Perriello's an upstanding guy, but if he couldn't find that photo in Northam's yearbook, electoral politics isn't for him. 

It might be because I don't work in the money pit that is US politics but Northam wouldn't really strike me as someone you'd send campaign staff (who in a primary election are an absolute premium) to dig around in his past- its a complete stab in the dark at the best of times and there's an alternative universe where Perriello lost the primary because he spent £50,000 earmarked for ads on an overpaid law firm.

Besides its as much an indictment on the RNC who actually did have the resources to find this sort of stuff.

With the US approach to free speech law, particularly post-2010, campaign ads in any statewide race (including seriously contested primaries) are normally at the saturation point anyway.  There is effectively 0 marginal value to an additional generic TV ad in a statewide race in the US system.  The only time advertising matters in our system is if one candidate never gets enough money to go on air in the first place (very rare in statewide races) or occasionally if one candidate is outspending all of the others by at least 10X (but even that accomplished ~nothing for Bloomberg in the presidential primary).  In a high profile election, it's very possible that seeing/hearing an additional media ad annoys more voters than it attracts.

By contrast, it's true that funding opposition research is more likely than not to be a total loss, but it gives you a small chance of an automatic win, like finding Northam's yearbook photo would have been for Perriello.  The odds can be very long and still justify investment because of the automatic victory condition. 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #131 on: May 18, 2020, 11:34:57 am »

It might not be a credible line of attack in a general election, but against someone like Jennifer Carroll Foy or Levar Stoney (both of whom are African American), it would be a credible line of attack in the primary.

Stoney is recruited for LG.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #132 on: May 18, 2020, 11:39:14 am »

It might not be a credible line of attack in a general election, but against someone like Jennifer Carroll Foy or Levar Stoney (both of whom are African American), it would be a credible line of attack in the primary.

Stoney is recruited for LG.

According to Wikipedia, no one has announced for that race yet.
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jimmie
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« Reply #133 on: May 27, 2020, 02:23:27 pm »

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/499736-virginia-democrat-jennifer-carroll-foy-announces-gubernatorial-campaign

Jennifer Carroll Foy is officially in!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #134 on: May 27, 2020, 02:37:11 pm »


Endorsed if T-Mac doesn't run.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #135 on: May 27, 2020, 07:01:55 pm »


Here's hoping that forces Fairfax out (or at least takes all of his African-American support).
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#Joemala2020
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« Reply #136 on: May 27, 2020, 10:55:49 pm »

Donating.
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LCameronOR
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« Reply #137 on: May 27, 2020, 11:07:04 pm »

Top pick now.
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Intell
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« Reply #138 on: May 28, 2020, 09:34:01 am »

Northam's black face would never have hurt him even if it was released before lmao- Trudeau's black-face really lost him minority support or support in general. Roll Eyes Black-face scandals will hurt republicans much more than it will hurt democrats, due to negative perceptions of the Republican Party.
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L.A. Da Boss
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« Reply #139 on: June 14, 2020, 12:38:06 pm »

Would be interested to see how many people try to run for LG, if T-Mac enters this race.

JCF should put up a massive fight if T-Mac doesn't enter and needs to work on raising more money to win a primary handily.
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jimmie
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« Reply #140 on: June 18, 2020, 06:37:30 am »



State Senator McClellan is running for governor.

I will still support Carroll Foy for now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #141 on: June 18, 2020, 08:12:28 am »

That's all the expected challengers now in, excluding TMac ho will probably decide in December.
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Mycool
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« Reply #142 on: June 18, 2020, 09:57:04 am »

Interested to see if Kaine endorses McClellan, he officiated her wedding!
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #143 on: June 20, 2020, 07:46:11 pm »

Didn’t know where to put this, but Virginia Beach Mayor Bobby Dyer (R)’s wife accused him of screwing a 20 year old. He is 70. He faces a credible challenge from former state Treasurer Jody Wagner (D). Probably at least a tossup now
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jimmie
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« Reply #144 on: June 25, 2020, 10:59:36 pm »

Former State Senator, Bill Carrico, is considering a 2021 Gubernatorial bid for Virginia Governor.

So the current two likely Republicans for Virginia Governor are Amanda Chase (lol!) and now Carrico who walked out on a Muslim prayer.
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Orwell
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« Reply #145 on: June 27, 2020, 02:15:48 pm »

Didn’t know where to put this, but Virginia Beach Mayor Bobby Dyer (R)’s wife accused him of screwing a 20 year old. He is 70. He faces a credible challenge from former state Treasurer Jody Wagner (D). Probably at least a tossup now

Bro good for him he's gonna lose re-election but good for him.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #146 on: June 27, 2020, 04:53:00 pm »
« Edited: June 28, 2020, 03:16:27 pm by President Johnson »

Having a competitive Democratic primary may signal T-Mac isn't jumping in? I think he may be looking forward to the presidential election and see what happens. If Uncle Joe is elected, and it seems to become more likely by the day, T-Mac may be angling for a job in a Biden Administration. Both get along very well, have similar stances and T-Mac is a skillful politician with experience in federal and state politics as well as business. I could see him as Chief of Staff in a Biden White House or at the Secretary of Commerce.

If he doesn't run, Jennifer Carrol seems to be a great candidate. She would finally be the first African American woman as governor, and of a freedom state with it!
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JMT
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« Reply #147 on: June 27, 2020, 07:26:09 pm »

Having a competitive Democratic primary may signal T-Mac isn't jumping in? I think he may be looking forward to the presidential election and see what happens. If Uncle Joe is elected, and it seems to become more likely by the day, T-Mac may be angling for a jon in a Biden Administration. Both get along very well, have similar stances and T-Mac is a skillful politician with experience in federal and state politics as well as business. I could see him as Chief of Staff in a Biden White House or at the Secretary of Commerce.

If he doesn't run, Jennifer Carrol seems to be a great candidate. She would finally be the first African American woman as governor, and of a freedom state with it!

Agreed, I think McAuliffe will probably wait and see what happens with the presidential election. I think McAuliffe would prefer a job in the Biden administration over being governor. But, if Biden loses, or McAuliffe isn’t offered a job in the Biden administration, I think he’ll run for Governor. McAuliffe can afford to wait on announcing a bid for Governor, given his name recognition.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #148 on: June 28, 2020, 03:16:08 pm »

Having a competitive Democratic primary may signal T-Mac isn't jumping in? I think he may be looking forward to the presidential election and see what happens. If Uncle Joe is elected, and it seems to become more likely by the day, T-Mac may be angling for a job in a Biden Administration. Both get along very well, have similar stances and T-Mac is a skillful politician with experience in federal and state politics as well as business. I could see him as Chief of Staff in a Biden White House or at the Secretary of Commerce.

If he doesn't run, Jennifer Carrol seems to be a great candidate. She would finally be the first African American woman as governor, and of a freedom state with it!

Agreed, I think McAuliffe will probably wait and see what happens with the presidential election. I think McAuliffe would prefer a job in the Biden administration over being governor. But, if Biden loses, or McAuliffe isn’t offered a job in the Biden administration, I think he’ll run for Governor. McAuliffe can afford to wait on announcing a bid for Governor, given his name recognition.

Yeah, T-Mac announcing a run may even force some candidates out or switch to the lieutenant governor race and prepare for 2025 as such. Carroll is pretty young, she could easily wait for another four years and serving as number two in the meantime.
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