Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (user search)
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle (search mode)
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837185 times)
Ogre Mage
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

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« on: June 14, 2008, 03:45:13 PM »
« edited: June 16, 2008, 02:31:12 AM by Ogre Mage »

What do people think of Ladenburg's chances in the Attorney General race, or for Burner in the 8th?  I plan to vote for Ladenburg (and don't live in Burner's district) but frankly I am skeptical about their chances.

I could not bring myself to vote for Deborah Senn in 2004.  She was a bad candidate.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2008, 09:35:45 PM »

This was how I voted in the major races --

U.S. Rep. District #3:  Cheryl Crist (D)
Governor:  Christine Gregoire (D)
Lieutenant Governor:  Didn't Vote
Secretary of State:  Sam Reed (R)
State Treasurer:  ChangMook Sohn (D)
State Auditor:  Brian Sonntag (D)
Attorney General:  John Ladenburg (D)
Commissioner of Public Lands:  Peter J. Goldmark (D)
Insurance Commissioner:  Mike Kreidler (D)
Superintendent of Public Instruction:  Randy Dorn
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 3:  Mary Fairhurst
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 4:  Charles W. Johnson
Supreme Court Justice Pos. 7:  Debra Stephens

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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2008, 01:10:42 AM »
« Edited: August 12, 2008, 01:21:10 AM by Ogre Mage »


I agree! 

Er, you are voting in the General election already?

No, it's the primary.  Candidates from all parties are on the ballot, Top 2 advance to the general.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2008, 10:30:13 PM »
« Edited: August 12, 2008, 11:04:44 PM by Ogre Mage »


I'm disappointed by Osgood.  I was hoping he'd bring a valid discussion on arcane balloting issues to the table.  Apparently, he mostly brings crazy.  The Stranger's Election Control Board endorsed Reed and called Osgood "paranoid," "sweaty" and a "nervous wreck."  They also said he went off on "Orwellian tirades about ballot barcodes."  That's the harshest I've ever seen them to anyone who agreed to meet with them.  And he's a Democrat.

What rock did the Washington State Democrats dig Osgood out from under?  Why the f**k are they backing a candidate supported by (un) Sound Politics?  The least they could do is find someone qualified.  As a Dem I am embarrassed that the party put up such a candidate for a statewide race.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2008, 01:37:06 AM »

The Top 2 Primary isn't perfect, but I resented the hell out of the "Pick A Party" primary.  If we go back to that system I will stop voting in the primary (except judicial races).  I really wish we could go back to the old blanket primary which unfortunately was declared unconstitutional.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2008, 10:41:28 PM »

The SOS race will be interesting to see the absolute floor vote of a Democrat running statewide. I predicted Reed gets ~60-65%.

My highly scientific and wonderfully accurate predictions in a moment...

That is my prediction as well. 
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2008, 07:36:19 PM »

Geez, I thought people would think my swing data & map were interesting. Sad

Also, if we adjust the turn-out numbers to account for the low turn-out in places like King County to resemble those from 2004, then Gregoire got about 52.5% to Rossi's 47.5%. Of course, that excludes that 8 or 9% of people who voted for the other random candidates. But who knows what the hell is going to happen with them...

I think it is interesting.  It appears that Gregoire has improved her standing in conservative eastern and southwestern Washington, but was undone by low turnout in King County.  They should make a point to work on that for the general.
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Ogre Mage
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*****
Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2008, 03:03:56 AM »
« Edited: September 08, 2008, 03:09:24 AM by Ogre Mage »

^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. Smiley

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. Tongue

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.

LOL at Pam Roach running for Governor.  I would watch just for the sheer entertainment value.  Anyone who touches her roses is in for it!

My fear is that Sonntag/Inslee/Smith/Chopp/Sims et. al. will bloody one another up during the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary as McKenna glides uncontested through the Republican Primary and then to victory in the general.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2008, 02:35:20 AM »

Yea, I'm pretty sure the field would clear for McKenna rather quickly as well, but never underestimate the clusterf**ck that is the WSRP.

And Smith isn't going to run for statewide office while there's still a Democratic majority in DC - it's also why he decided not to run for AG or Pierce County Executive this year.

I heard that Smith is tired of traveling to D.C.  Admittedly, that was pre-2006 elections.  In any case, my concerns still stand.  The Dems have a pretty deep bench for Governor once Gregoire leaves, but that isn't necessarily a good thing given the fractious nature of the party.  There will be a scramble for the Democratic nomination.  Hopefully there won't be a major schism afterward. 
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Ogre Mage
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*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2008, 12:34:32 AM »
« Edited: September 26, 2008, 01:01:51 AM by Ogre Mage »

Did anybody watch the debate? They're both pretty boring people.

I did.  The level of hostility between the candidates was notable but not surprising.  They started attacking one another in their opening statements, not waiting for the question and answer period.

A good moment for Rossi and a bad one for Gregoire came on crime.  Gregoire tried to suggest Rossi had never done anything about crime.  He gave a long list of the police guilds which had endorsed him, including the King County and Seattle Police Guilds and was able to list several law enforcement related accomplishments.  It was an effective rebut to her attack.

Gregoire, for her part, did a good job exposing Rossi's fraud of a transportation plan in spite of her problems on that issue.  She showed a strong grasp of policy.  Her answer on energy was emblematic of her approach -- a recounting of her accomplishments and the policy specifics she emphasized, followed by an attack on Rossi's record.  There were several issue questions:  energy, education, health care -- where Rossi basically went AWOL.  Voters who closely follow education issues are not going to be impressed by Rossi attacking Gregoire and then sentimentally rambling on about his late father who used to be a teacher.  It doesn't tell us anything about his education plans.  OTOH, for voters from who don't focus on education, Rossi's answer might have sounded heartfelt.
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Ogre Mage
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*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2008, 02:29:28 AM »

do you know how long they've been at it? Anderson is married... Pflug was until recently (is this what ended it?).

Yup.

Started sometime in the last two years is my understanding. DeBolt is also messing around with committee staff.

Also, if anyone was curious, Gregoire is sick.

Is there a reason Democrats never choose to pursue these things? They knew what West was up to, left it alone, and he ended up as a disaster for Spokane.

Because there are also several Democrats who haven't exactly kept their pants on.

We hide their scandals, they hide ours.

Uh oh.  Has Gregoire's cancer come back?

What would really make me chuckle is if Jamie Pedersen was messing around with Marko Liias.   LOL.
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Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2008, 12:42:13 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2008, 02:01:52 AM by Ogre Mage »

On another note, I noticed that Gregoire is winning the newspaper endorsement war this time.  Besides the Spokane Spokesman-Review, she also was endorsed by The Everett Herald, The Tacoma News Tribune and The Columbian (in Vancouver, WA) -- three of the biggest cities in Washington located in Snohomish, Pierce and Clark counties -- key areas in a statewide race.  These endorsements are reversals from 2004.  The Seattle PI and The Olympian reprised their endorsement of Gregoire.

Rossi got the endorsement of the state's biggest paper, The Seattle Times, which should be renamed The Estate Tax Times since that is their litmus test for endorsement.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2008, 03:59:22 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 04:06:38 PM by Ogre Mage »

I had a very difficult time with I-1029, so much so that I did not vote on it.  On one hand, I feel that if we had some manna from heaven funding source it would be a good investment.  But in this economic environment I just don't feel comfortable with another mandate lacking a realistic and defined funding source.  Senior care is important but sadly there are other priorities I would put first.  Where are we going to get the money for this?

If those Gregoire/Rossi numbers are accurate I would be very happy.  Unfortunately, I think the race is slightly closer than that.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2008, 05:36:47 PM »
« Edited: October 27, 2008, 05:39:02 PM by Ogre Mage »

Breaking News -- Judge rules Rossi must give a deposition about Buildergate BEFORE the election.

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http://crosscut.com/blog/crosscut/18603/
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2008, 09:26:29 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2008, 09:32:32 PM by Ogre Mage »

Many of us were equally satisfied with the defeat of Rick Santorum in 2006.

I was and still am angry about a certain fiasco in Florida in 2000.  It was an election which actually impacted me and the consequences for our nation turned out to be disastrous.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2008, 03:11:11 AM »


   And I am SO HAPPY.
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2008, 02:40:55 AM »

Off topic, do you guys think the Lands Commissioner or the 8th Congressional District is the more important race?
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #17 on: November 20, 2008, 01:41:05 AM »

Washington State GOP Confident Despite Loss

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html

After what happened in 2006 and 2008 in WA, it takes some level of delusion to feel good at this point.  Or maybe it is just a front.

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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #18 on: November 21, 2008, 01:16:56 AM »
« Edited: November 21, 2008, 01:33:51 AM by Ogre Mage »

Washington State GOP Confident Despite Loss

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008368718_gop09m0.html

After what happened in 2006 and 2008 in WA, it takes some level of delusion to feel good at this point.  Or maybe it is just a front.



My thoughts:
I expect Reichert to be the last Republican Representative in the 8th district for a long time. I'm fairly certain the Democrats will be able to take him down once they get a decent candidate. Whether that will ever happen is uncertain, though once Reichert steps down the Democrats should definitely win it.

The GOP is in deep trouble in suburban Seattle. Let's look at the Southern United States---in the 80s and 90s, we saw a lot of Democratic politicans ditch the party and join the GOP. This is quite indicative of a long-term change in the way the area votes. In suburban Seattle we've seen people like Rodney Tom and Fred Jarrett jump ship. It's clear that suburban Seattle is going Democrat and it won't be going back any time soon. We saw this happen in many parts of Seattle like Fremont and Wallingford in the 70s. They used to be Republican and then took a sharp-turn for the left. This example is probably a bit radical, but I do honestly think we're seeing the political Seattleization of suburban Seattle (particular the Northside and Eastside). It's true that some areas, like suburban Pierce County, are becoming the new Republican suburban strongholds, but quite simply they don't even come close to countering the Metro-wide Dem-trend.

As for statewide officials, they'll sneak in some Republicans for sure. Maybe even a Governor. Alcon and I agreed a while ago that Rob McKenna was more likely than Rossi to be the next Republican Governor of Washington. I think McKenna has a very good chance of being Governor eventually and I don't think he has hid his intentions to seek the office. Rossi had one important thing McKenna doesn't, though. Looks. Let's face it, Rossi only did so well because he was a handsome young man up against an ugly old woman. McKenna is an ugly nerd with glasses. It's not something I base my vote on, but considering how shallow your average swing voter is, it's definitely something worth considering. Sonntag is the only Democrat I'd be confident with against McKenna. Though the other mentioned names (Inslee, for example) would also have a good chance (though it's a risk I'd rather not take). I doubt Reed is popular enough with Republicans to make it past the primary and we just saw Sutherland go down this month. Allan Martin was an extremely strong candidate for an open office and he lost (and McIntire did pretty well in some traditionally Democratic areas for such a close election, surprisingly).

Yes.  This is very clear when you look at the representation in the state legislative districts underlying the 8th Congressional District.  There are almost no Republicans left, which is why the Dems keep trying so hard in the 8th, thus far without success.  Maybe Rodney Tom will take a crack next time.  I think Reichert is destined to go the way of Chris Shays.

IMO, the radical right statewide candidates the GOP ran in major races in 1996-2000 --  Ellen Craswell, Linda Smith and John Carlson -- helped turn the suburbs away from the GOP, especially due to social issues.  Then Bush caused the bottom to fall out.  Rossi's views were similar, but he was a better campaigner and better at hiding it.  However, he too cratered in the suburbs this time.  Some of it was due to Obama, but I also noticed a strong late swing among women voters to Gregoire in 2008.  I would hypothesize her attack ads on Rossi's social views may have had an impact.  Perhaps they were also unimpressed with his sham of a transportation plan.

McKenna has a strong chance to win the governor's race in 2012.  With his main rival now out of the way, look for him to consolidate party control over the next 4 years.  Nevertheless, the current state of the WA GOP is terrible:

--With Gregoire's victory, the WA Dems will hold the Governor's Mansion for 28 years.

--Congressional Representation:  6 D, 3 R

--Partisan Statewide Offices Held by Democrats [8]:  Both U.S. Senate Seats, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, Auditor, Insurance Commissioner, Lands Commissioner.

--Partisan Statewide Offices Held by Republicans (2):  Attorney General, Secretary of State.

I wonder what sacrificial lamb candidate they will run again Patty Murray in 2010?
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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #19 on: November 22, 2008, 05:34:59 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2008, 05:43:37 PM by Ogre Mage »

It currently looks like the race for the newly created King County Elections Director will be between Jason Osgood and Pam Roach. This has to be some sort of cruel sick joke. We're being Punk'd, right?

Shocked Tongue

I don't know whether to laugh hysterically or scream.  This could be a meltdown of monumental tragicomic proportions.  If there is a debate on TVW between these two I would watch just to gawk at the train wreck.  The Horror Show that began with Julie Anne Kempf and had an even bigger sequel starring Dean Logan now seems destined for a Part 3.  AIEEEEE!
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Ogre Mage
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*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #20 on: January 06, 2009, 03:51:00 AM »
« Edited: January 06, 2009, 03:57:25 AM by Ogre Mage »

I feel like it is going to be the release of the stimulus package tied to the viaduct as part of the infrastructure piece of the "new", new deal.

I suspect this to be the case as well.  Gregoire, Nickels and Sims delayed their decision AGAIN on the Alaska Way Viaduct until early 2009, which makes me speculate they are holding out for federal funding.  This is especially possible since Patty Murray chairs the Appropriations subcommittee funding the Dept. of Transportation.  Perhaps she and President-elect Obama will deliver manna from heaven for the viaduct.

After the Democrats won back the Congress in 2006, Mayor Nickels asked Sen. Murray for $10 BILLION dollars for the viaduct ($1 billion per year for 10 years).  LOL.  Not even Robert Byrd could get that kind of money -- at least not under President Bush.
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Ogre Mage
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*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2009, 04:55:54 AM »

The King County Executive race may be interesting. Maybe.

Dow Constantine has just declared for King County Executive.  I think it will mainly be between him and Larry Phillips, assuming Bob Ferguson stays out.

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/162077.asp

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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #22 on: February 16, 2009, 03:37:08 PM »

What's going on?  I check back on this thread to see what people have said about the KC Executive Election and everyone has broken out into a round of do-si-do!  Tongue

Does Lunar have Washington state envy?  Because our state is so fabulous.

Back on topic, it is almost impossible for me to see a Republican winning the KC Election race, although I-26 (making King County races nonpartisan) makes me hesitate.  I thought that was a dumb change and if I lived in the county I would have voted against it.

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Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2009, 11:15:37 PM »

Technically this should go in 2010 Elections or Congressional Elections, but unless either Reichert or McKenna declares for the senate race, which is extremely unlikely, I think it is just of interest to us.

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http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/162351.asp?source=rss
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Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #24 on: February 27, 2009, 12:31:09 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2009, 12:32:42 PM by Ogre Mage »

National Journal released its annual ranking of the most liberal and conservative senators based on their 2008 voting record.  And the most liberal senator in 2008 was our own, Patty MurrayCheesy

I suppose, in fairness, Teddy was out for much of last year so maybe her trophy should come with an asterisk, lol.

Look for the WA GOP to attack her on this in 2010.  Not that it will help them.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/02/obama-congress.html
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