Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier

Not really. NC Report has PP a lot higher and PSOE a lot lower. UP and Cs are also not the same (although they are closer). Anyways, if you average the 3 polls you get:

PP 30.9%
PSOE 23.1%
UP 19.4%
Cs 15.6%

So compared to June 2016, PP is down by 2, PSOE up by 0.5, UP down by 1.5 and Cs up by 2.5

[Nanwe]

GAD3/ABC poll:

PP 30.7% (127 seats)
PSOE 25.9% (100 seats)
UP 17.8% (56 seats)
Cs 15.4 (41 seats)

ERC 2.9% (12 seats)
PDECat 1.5% (5 seats)
PNV 1.4% (6 seats)

If this one was true, there is a slight Sánchez effect (PSOE is up 15 seats and 3.4%). However polls aren't agreeing on that so I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer.

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-pp-baja-pero-sigue-primero-y-psoe-recupera-millon-votos-podemos-201706050308_noticia.html

Do they agree if we exclude Metroscopia? They are always the biggest outlier

Not really. NC Report has PP a lot higher and PSOE a lot lower. UP and Cs are also not the same (although they are closer). Anyways, if you average the 3 polls you get:

PP 30.9%
PSOE 23.1%
UP 19.4%
Cs 15.6%

So compared to June 2016, PP is down by 2, PSOE up by 0.5, UP down by 1.5 and Cs up by 2.5

Seems about right. Although considering the implications of Sanchez's election and Operación Lezo and the incoming  visit of Rajoy to the Audiencia Nacional and the optics of it, we need to look at the trend.

[Former President tack50]

Catalan premier Puigdemont has anounced the date and question of their referendum. It will take place on the 1st of October and the question will be: "Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state in the form of a republic?"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2017/06/09/inenglish/1496995696_161601.html

Seems like an odd choice in the 2nd part (the form of Republic). I thought that was implied? Did anyone expect Catalonia to become independent but keep the monarchy?

My question now is if it will end like the 2014 one or if some unionists will go out and vote even if it's meaningless. Supposedly it's a binding referendum, but most likely it won't happen. I bet it will be ruled unconstitutional before tomorrow.

[Former President tack50]

Cadena SER/My word poll:

http://cadenaser.com/ser/2017/06/11/politica/1497169995_755970.html

PP: 28.6%
PSOE: 24.8%
UP: 18.9%
Cs: 15.7%

The most interesting question IMO is this one though:

¿Who would make the best prime minister?

Pedro Sánchez: 31.1%
Albert Rivera: 28.5%
Pablo Iglesias: 24.8%
Mariano Rajoy: 15.6%

I wonder how is Pedro Sánchez so high! I get Rivera since he does have very high approval ratings, but Sanchez and Iglesias seem too high and Rajoy seems too low. Half of PP voters preferring Rivera over Rajoy! And I thought most internal critics of Rajoy came from his right (like former PM Aznar), not from his left.

[Former President tack50]

And day 1 (of 2 apparently) of Iglesias' no confidence vote is over. Tomorrow apparently the 4 main parties will talk (PP, PSOE, Podemos and allies and Cs), with today only seeing Rajoy (incumbent PM), Iglesias (PM alternative) and Irene Montero (Speaker of the group who presented the no confidence vote), as well as the speakers from the regionalist parties.

As for who won, nobody knows. Everyone will defend his party of course, and almost no one will watch the 8 hours or so that the full debate lasted (plus tomorrow's interventions).

[Velasco]

Podemos passed the test and got a good mark. Irene Montero, who is the UP parliamentary spokeswoman, was particularly good in her role whipping the government and the PP for their intolerable corruption. Montero revealed herself as a good parliamentarian and has the makings of a leader. To the surprise of many, Mariano Rajoy replied personally the long opening statement made by Montero. Later Pablo Iglesias came to stage playing a more "institutional" role as the alternative candidate and had a long dialectical exchange with Mariano Rajoy. Both Rajoy and Iglesias were correct. The polarization PP-Podemos is mutually beneficial for them.

Today Albert Rivera and the new PSOE spokesman José Luis Ábalos came to stage. Acrimonious exchange between Rivera and Iglesias. More politeness between Ábalos and Iglesias. In absence of Pedro Sánchez (he resigned as MP when the Rajoy's investiture took place) Ábalos can be a good spokesman for the PSOE.

[Former President tack50]

Results of the no confidence vote. Requires 176 votes in favour (an overall majority)

Yea (82) Podemos, Compromís, ERC, Bildu

Nay (170): PP, Cs, CC

Abstaining (98) PSOE, NC, PDECat, PNV

No big surprises tbh. I do wonder slightly about some of the small regional parties but for the most part there were no big surprises.

Also, watching CC's very harsh intervention a deal between Podemos and CC is out of the window now (PSOE+UP+ERC+PDECat+Bildu+CC).

In other words the only 2 viable routes for a successful no confidence vote are:
PSOE+Cs+UP
PSOE+UP+PNV+ERC+PDECat.

Then again neither route is particularly likely.

[Mike88]

Will ERC or PDECat even vote beside the PSOE after Sanchéz said he's also against the referendum? And i don't see PNV vote a alongside Podemos on anything actually.

[Velasco]

Alternative majorities are unworkable with the current composition of parliament.

Despite its foregone conclusion, I guess the motion served its purpose. Actually it worked as a general policy debate. Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero performed better than I expected. Also, despite his skills as parliamentarian, Mariano Rajoy can't reply anything against the overwhelming evidence. His party is officially a "criminal organization". Thus Mariano Rajoy bypassed the question, invoking the macroeconomic performance of his government and warning about the potentially disastrous effects of having Pablo Iglesias in government.

[Former President tack50]

Simple Lógica poll

http://electomania.es/20170616simplelogica/

PP: 29.9%
PSOE: 25.3%
UP: 18.6%
Cs: 16.8%
Others: 9.4%

Approval ratings

Mariano Rajoy: 28,5%
Pedro Sánchez 29%
Pablo Iglesias 20,5%
Albert Rivera 40%
Alberto Garzón 29,7%

Spanish politicians for some reason always have terrible approval ratings. When was the last time the Spanish PM had a positive approval rating? (Ie either at least a 5/10 or positive net approval). I guess Zapatero early in his term? (2006 or so, I found a 2007 poll which put him at only -3 net approval)

Also, the "Sánchez effect" is confirmed. And how long will it last though? Considering he has moderated himself after winning, I can't see it being permanent. He wants to push for a PSOE+Cs+UP deal, which is impossible. Most people are saying that we've basically returned to early 2016 politically except this time with a government.

I keep hearing that Rajoy will not pass a budget for 2018, instead just using 2017's budget, and probably call a snap election in late 2018/early 2019. I hope it's 2018. 2019 has way too many elections already: there's the regional ones, the EU parliament one and assuming they don't call snap elections, the Andalusian and Catalan ones (this last one is almost certain to be a snap election next year though, because of the pruces)

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so today the New York Times published an editorial piece about Catalonia, encouraging the government to do a legal referendum.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/23/opinion/catalonias-challenge-to-spain.html?ref=opinion&referer=http://www.elperiodico.com/es/

I guess the prucés is becoming kinda internationalized after all? I mean, an editorial is not much, but the NYT is probably one of the most respected newspapers worldwide. Then again no countries support the Catalan government.

My prediction for the "referendum" is a repeat of 2014, ie low turnout and 90% yes. Maybe slightly better (say, 50% turnout and 70% yes votes)

[Velasco]

The editorial encourages to find a political solution., which includes a legal referendum. NYT does not support the independence of Catalonia.

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I concur that would be one of the best possible outcomes for this terrible mess.

[Helsinkian]

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http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

[Zinneke]

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http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170704/423891438758/cospedal-fuerzas-armadas-soberania-espana.html

The Spanish Defense minister says as much, but its empty rhetoric. More likely is that you have the Guarda Civil walk in to the Mossos (the Catalan local police) and take over the law institutions. Also the organisers of the referendum will be tried like Artur Mas was.

[Former President tack50]

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http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

In theory you would have the Spanish government activating article 155 of the constitution, which states:

If a Self-governing Community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the
Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest
of Spain, the Government, after having lodged a complaint with the President of the  Community and failed to receive satisfaction therefore, may, following approval granted by the overall majority of the Senate, take all measures necessary to compel the Community to meet said obligations, or to protect the abovementioned general interest.

What that means is basically that Catalonia's government is suspended temporarily. PP has an absolute majority in the Senate so there's no chance of the opposition blocking that move somehow as well. It's also likely that the entire Catalan cabinet gets arrested by the Guardia Civil under charges of sedition, treason or something like that. After that, who knows?

If there's no resistance, then the thing ends there. There would probably be a temporary appointed governor or something, and maybe a snap regional election.

If there's resistance however, then you do have the repression, the army intervening and what not, but I personally think that's extremely unlikely. The Mossos (Catalonia's police) would probably not fight the national police or army, and other than protests where some members could turn violent, nothing else would happen.

Anyways, I think Rajoy won't do anything until the day they officially declare independence. The so-called referendum will happen, but it will be like the 2014 one.

[Former President tack50]

Also, an interesting poll about what should be done about Catalonia according to the rest of Spain:

If the Spanish Government forbids the referendum but the Catalan government does one regardless, should Catalonia's autonomy be suspended? (yes-no-don't know)

Overall: 40-48-12

PP voters: 56-30-14
PSOE voters: 44-46-11
UP voters: 24-64-12
Cs voters:  57-32-10

18-25 year olds: 36-58-6
26-35 year olds: 42-51-7
36-45 year olds: 40-52-8
46-55 year olds: 34-55-11
56-65 year olds: 41-32-28
66-75 year olds: 50-34-16

Interestingly the numbers are a lot lower in Catalonia, with only 15% of Catalans supporting the suspension of their autonomy if necessary, and 80% rejecting it.

Should the Spanish government allow the referendum to happen? (yes-no-don't know)

Overall: 39-55-7

PP voters: 17-79
PSOE voters: 35-61
UP voters: 61-33
Cs voters: 13-84

Poll about whether a referendum should happen:

Options:
-I don't support any kind of referendum
-I support a referendum only if all Spaniards vote
-I support a referendum even if only people in Catalonia can vote

Overall: 28-47-22
Catalonia: 14-22-61
Rest of Spain: 31-52-15

PP voters: 46-48-? (very small)
PSOE voters: 30-47-20
UP voters: 8-49-41
Cs voters: 41-52-7

http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-07-05/encuesta-dym-40-espanoles-suspension-autonomia-cataluna-si-hay-referendum_1409218/

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, so as usual nationalist dick-waving is distracting people from the real issues (austerity, corruption, etc.)?

[Former President tack50]

Ugh, so as usual nationalist dick-waving is distracting people from the real issues (austerity, corruption, etc.)?

Yeah, Catalonia is one of the recurring themes in our elections, alongside Venezuela and a couple others.

For all what's worth if you want news about the real issues: the government has started to draft the 2018 budget. The spending cap has been marginally increased, but the allowed budget deficits are smaller (so town halls must have a balanced budget, communities are allowed up to 0.3% deficit and the central government 0.6%).

It will be voted by the Congress in less than a week, but PSOE will vote against it, unlike last time (when they voted in favour of the 2017 spending cap but against the full 2017 budget).

It is expected to pass with the same extremely narrow majority as 2017's full budget though (so: PP+Cs+PNV Basque nationalists+CC Canarian Nationalists+NCa Canarian nationalists). NC might abstain making it a 175-174 vote though, but either way it doesn't change the result.

As you can see, even here you need nationalism, you can't have Spanish politics without having to deal with them. And actually, fun fact: Most nationalist parties are at their lowest point in their history. Let's go 1 by 1:

Catalonia

PDECat (formerly CiU) is in a terrible shape due to the independence stuff backfiring. They seem to have lost the lead in Catalan nationalism, being surpassed by ERC. They used to have twice as many MPs, and regional polls put them as low as 6th! (even behind PP, which never got a foothold in Catalonia)

ERC is on the best moment however, with only the 2004 period coming close (when they had 8 MPs, only one less than now).

The total amount of Catalan nationalism seems to be stagnant though, with ERC+CiU/PDECat not changing much. What has changed is probably the more autonomy/independence ratio (2004 was not an exception to more autonomy being favoured as ERC was less pro independence then)

Basque country

PNV is on an ok moment. At the national level they aren't doing that well, with only 5 MPs, but they haven't gone off a cliff like PDECat. In Basque elections they are doing remarkably well though. They even gained a seat when they were initially expected to lose some!

Basque independentism is doing quite badly though. Basque independentism is at its lowest point in decades. However Bildu itself is doing ok at the national level (2 MPs is half of what they had in 2011, but still more or less what Batasuna used to get), and at the Basque level they are also not too bad (although they did lose a couple seats)

Overall similar to Catalonia, it's less of a shift in nationalism itself and more of a shift in the autonomy/independence ratio, this time towards the former, but with a smaller shift.

Canary Islands

Here there is almost no desire for independence to begin with. However, Canarian nationalism is in a reverse situation compared to Basque one. Here the amount of people who identify as Canarian is more or less stagnant, but the nationalist parties are falling.

CC has been slowly but surely declining since their peak in 2000. At the national level they used to have 4 MPs, now they have 1. I personally think Oramas is safe, but her party is definitely not doing well.

The situation at the Canarian level is just as bad. The party has basically disappeared in Gran Canaria, the 2nd most populated island (interestingly, the Lt. Governor is from there, so he might actually lose his seat in the next regional election!), and I don't see them regaining a footbase there any time soon.

What's keeping them afloat is mostly the electoral system, where the minor islands (where they perform well) have 50% of the seats with only 17% of the population. In fact, they are the largest party in terms of seats in the Canarian parliament, but they came in third in the election, with only 18.2%! (compared to PP's 18.7% and PSOE's 19.9%). I'm pretty sure Fernando Clavijo is the governor in Spain with the least support for his party, maybe in Spain's history!

The NC nationalists are doing better, but still not great. Against most polls (which admittedly were off), Pedro Quevedo held his seat (contested alongside PSOE) and has been decisive passing the budget, and has received several concessions for the islands (like for example an increase on the flight subsidies between islands, basically making all flights 50% off from now on). However, NC does not contest elections alone so they are dependent on PSOE doing well.

At the Canarian level they are well off, but probably slightly underwhelming, they barely increased in votes in 2015. They do control the Gran Canaria island council, but that's actually telling of their main problem. They are basically seen as the Gran Canaria party (not quite to the exent of say, the "La Gomera's Socialist Group", but still). The only other island where they got MPs was Lanzarote, and they didn't even break 5% in the most populated island (Tenerife), and only got over 7% in Lanzarote and GC. I still see them going up though, but there's only so many votes you can get with only Gran Canaria. They probably have a ceiling of 16% or so in their current shape.

Other nationalists

Galician nationalism is in a bad shape. The BNG failed to get a seat in 2015 for the first time in a long time, and lost some seats in the regional election. Somehow PP is seen as Galician nationalist there, so they can only get some nationalists on the left.

Navarra is very weird IMO so I won't get into their regional level. At their national level it's worth noting that Geroa Bai failed to get a seat, just like BNG in Galicia.

Valencian nationalism on the contrary is prettty well off. At the national level they have 4 seats, more than UV ever got in the 80s or 90s. They did contest the election alongside Podemos though. At the regional level they are also very well off, and I can actually see a 25% chance or so of them getting the governorship for the first time ever!

Balearic nationalism is also well off. I don't think Mes has any MPs in Congress, but Balearic nationalism has roughly twice as many seats as it used to get. There also seems to be a right wing nationalist party, which will help Balearic nationalists.

I guess these 2 are helped by the rise in prominence of Catalan nationalism? Then again I don't think the "Paisos Catalans" thing is popular in either Valencia or the Balearic Islands.

Andalucia used to have nationalist parties, but they are dead and buried nowadays. Asturias has Foro Asturias, but they are less of a nationalist party and more of a glorified PP split.

 And Cantabria has the PRC (Gov. Revilla's party) but it seems like the kind of party that will die once Revilla retires (again, just like Foro Asturias, which is struggling to remain relevant now that its leader, Álvarez Cascos, has retired from politics)

[Mike88]

Today, the Constitutional Court has struck down Puigdemont plan to finance the referendum. Puigdemont wanted to put in the budget the costs of the referendum but the Court said that it's illegal.

Did the same happened in 2014? I don't recall.

[Lord Halifax]

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http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

In theory you would have the Spanish government activating article 155 of the constitution, which states:

(...)

What that means is basically that Catalonia's government is suspended temporarily. PP has an absolute majority in the Senate so there's no chance of the opposition blocking that move somehow as well. It's also likely that the entire Catalan cabinet gets arrested by the Guardia Civil under charges of sedition, treason or something like that. After that, who knows?

If there's no resistance, then the thing ends there. There would probably be a temporary appointed governor or something, and maybe a snap regional election.

If there's resistance however, then you do have the repression, the army intervening and what not, but I personally think that's extremely unlikely. The Mossos (Catalonia's police) would probably not fight the national police or army, and other than protests where some members could turn violent, nothing else would happen.

Are there any majority Catalan units in the army?

[mgop]

it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?

[Former President tack50]

it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?

It's used to attack Podemos, whose leaders have some ties to Chavez and Maduro's regimes. Nothing illegal, but still enough for attacks from the right.

[parochial boy]

Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

[mgop]

it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?

It's used to attack Podemos, whose leaders have some ties to Chavez and Maduro's regimes. Nothing illegal, but still enough for attacks from the right.

spanish right obsession with venezuela is really sad.

[mgop]

Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

spanish gov probably know those polling are fake and that vast majority of catalans are for independence, that's why they doesn't approve referendum.