Spanish elections and politics

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

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http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

In theory you would have the Spanish government activating article 155 of the constitution, which states:

If a Self-governing Community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the
Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest
of Spain, the Government, after having lodged a complaint with the President of the  Community and failed to receive satisfaction therefore, may, following approval granted by the overall majority of the Senate, take all measures necessary to compel the Community to meet said obligations, or to protect the abovementioned general interest.

What that means is basically that Catalonia's government is suspended temporarily. PP has an absolute majority in the Senate so there's no chance of the opposition blocking that move somehow as well. It's also likely that the entire Catalan cabinet gets arrested by the Guardia Civil under charges of sedition, treason or something like that. After that, who knows?

If there's no resistance, then the thing ends there. There would probably be a temporary appointed governor or something, and maybe a snap regional election.

If there's resistance however, then you do have the repression, the army intervening and what not, but I personally think that's extremely unlikely. The Mossos (Catalonia's police) would probably not fight the national police or army, and other than protests where some members could turn violent, nothing else would happen.

Anyways, I think Rajoy won't do anything until the day they officially declare independence. The so-called referendum will happen, but it will be like the 2014 one.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Also, an interesting poll about what should be done about Catalonia according to the rest of Spain:

If the Spanish Government forbids the referendum but the Catalan government does one regardless, should Catalonia's autonomy be suspended? (yes-no-don't know)

Overall: 40-48-12

PP voters: 56-30-14
PSOE voters: 44-46-11
UP voters: 24-64-12
Cs voters:  57-32-10

18-25 year olds: 36-58-6
26-35 year olds: 42-51-7
36-45 year olds: 40-52-8
46-55 year olds: 34-55-11
56-65 year olds: 41-32-28
66-75 year olds: 50-34-16

Interestingly the numbers are a lot lower in Catalonia, with only 15% of Catalans supporting the suspension of their autonomy if necessary, and 80% rejecting it.

Should the Spanish government allow the referendum to happen? (yes-no-don't know)

Overall: 39-55-7

PP voters: 17-79
PSOE voters: 35-61
UP voters: 61-33
Cs voters: 13-84

Poll about whether a referendum should happen:

Options:
-I don't support any kind of referendum
-I support a referendum only if all Spaniards vote
-I support a referendum even if only people in Catalonia can vote

Overall: 28-47-22
Catalonia: 14-22-61
Rest of Spain: 31-52-15

PP voters: 46-48-? (very small)
PSOE voters: 30-47-20
UP voters: 8-49-41
Cs voters: 41-52-7

http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2017-07-05/encuesta-dym-40-espanoles-suspension-autonomia-cataluna-si-hay-referendum_1409218/

[God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams]

Ugh, so as usual nationalist dick-waving is distracting people from the real issues (austerity, corruption, etc.)?

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Ugh, so as usual nationalist dick-waving is distracting people from the real issues (austerity, corruption, etc.)?

Yeah, Catalonia is one of the recurring themes in our elections, alongside Venezuela and a couple others.

For all what's worth if you want news about the real issues: the government has started to draft the 2018 budget. The spending cap has been marginally increased, but the allowed budget deficits are smaller (so town halls must have a balanced budget, communities are allowed up to 0.3% deficit and the central government 0.6%).

It will be voted by the Congress in less than a week, but PSOE will vote against it, unlike last time (when they voted in favour of the 2017 spending cap but against the full 2017 budget).

It is expected to pass with the same extremely narrow majority as 2017's full budget though (so: PP+Cs+PNV Basque nationalists+CC Canarian Nationalists+NCa Canarian nationalists). NC might abstain making it a 175-174 vote though, but either way it doesn't change the result.

As you can see, even here you need nationalism, you can't have Spanish politics without having to deal with them. And actually, fun fact: Most nationalist parties are at their lowest point in their history. Let's go 1 by 1:

Catalonia

PDECat (formerly CiU) is in a terrible shape due to the independence stuff backfiring. They seem to have lost the lead in Catalan nationalism, being surpassed by ERC. They used to have twice as many MPs, and regional polls put them as low as 6th! (even behind PP, which never got a foothold in Catalonia)

ERC is on the best moment however, with only the 2004 period coming close (when they had 8 MPs, only one less than now).

The total amount of Catalan nationalism seems to be stagnant though, with ERC+CiU/PDECat not changing much. What has changed is probably the more autonomy/independence ratio (2004 was not an exception to more autonomy being favoured as ERC was less pro independence then)

Basque country

PNV is on an ok moment. At the national level they aren't doing that well, with only 5 MPs, but they haven't gone off a cliff like PDECat. In Basque elections they are doing remarkably well though. They even gained a seat when they were initially expected to lose some!

Basque independentism is doing quite badly though. Basque independentism is at its lowest point in decades. However Bildu itself is doing ok at the national level (2 MPs is half of what they had in 2011, but still more or less what Batasuna used to get), and at the Basque level they are also not too bad (although they did lose a couple seats)

Overall similar to Catalonia, it's less of a shift in nationalism itself and more of a shift in the autonomy/independence ratio, this time towards the former, but with a smaller shift.

Canary Islands

Here there is almost no desire for independence to begin with. However, Canarian nationalism is in a reverse situation compared to Basque one. Here the amount of people who identify as Canarian is more or less stagnant, but the nationalist parties are falling.

CC has been slowly but surely declining since their peak in 2000. At the national level they used to have 4 MPs, now they have 1. I personally think Oramas is safe, but her party is definitely not doing well.

The situation at the Canarian level is just as bad. The party has basically disappeared in Gran Canaria, the 2nd most populated island (interestingly, the Lt. Governor is from there, so he might actually lose his seat in the next regional election!), and I don't see them regaining a footbase there any time soon.

What's keeping them afloat is mostly the electoral system, where the minor islands (where they perform well) have 50% of the seats with only 17% of the population. In fact, they are the largest party in terms of seats in the Canarian parliament, but they came in third in the election, with only 18.2%! (compared to PP's 18.7% and PSOE's 19.9%). I'm pretty sure Fernando Clavijo is the governor in Spain with the least support for his party, maybe in Spain's history!

The NC nationalists are doing better, but still not great. Against most polls (which admittedly were off), Pedro Quevedo held his seat (contested alongside PSOE) and has been decisive passing the budget, and has received several concessions for the islands (like for example an increase on the flight subsidies between islands, basically making all flights 50% off from now on). However, NC does not contest elections alone so they are dependent on PSOE doing well.

At the Canarian level they are well off, but probably slightly underwhelming, they barely increased in votes in 2015. They do control the Gran Canaria island council, but that's actually telling of their main problem. They are basically seen as the Gran Canaria party (not quite to the exent of say, the "La Gomera's Socialist Group", but still). The only other island where they got MPs was Lanzarote, and they didn't even break 5% in the most populated island (Tenerife), and only got over 7% in Lanzarote and GC. I still see them going up though, but there's only so many votes you can get with only Gran Canaria. They probably have a ceiling of 16% or so in their current shape.

Other nationalists

Galician nationalism is in a bad shape. The BNG failed to get a seat in 2015 for the first time in a long time, and lost some seats in the regional election. Somehow PP is seen as Galician nationalist there, so they can only get some nationalists on the left.

Navarra is very weird IMO so I won't get into their regional level. At their national level it's worth noting that Geroa Bai failed to get a seat, just like BNG in Galicia.

Valencian nationalism on the contrary is prettty well off. At the national level they have 4 seats, more than UV ever got in the 80s or 90s. They did contest the election alongside Podemos though. At the regional level they are also very well off, and I can actually see a 25% chance or so of them getting the governorship for the first time ever!

Balearic nationalism is also well off. I don't think Mes has any MPs in Congress, but Balearic nationalism has roughly twice as many seats as it used to get. There also seems to be a right wing nationalist party, which will help Balearic nationalists.

I guess these 2 are helped by the rise in prominence of Catalan nationalism? Then again I don't think the "Paisos Catalans" thing is popular in either Valencia or the Balearic Islands.

Andalucia used to have nationalist parties, but they are dead and buried nowadays. Asturias has Foro Asturias, but they are less of a nationalist party and more of a glorified PP split.

 And Cantabria has the PRC (Gov. Revilla's party) but it seems like the kind of party that will die once Revilla retires (again, just like Foro Asturias, which is struggling to remain relevant now that its leader, Álvarez Cascos, has retired from politics)

[Mike88]

Today, the Constitutional Court has struck down Puigdemont plan to finance the referendum. Puigdemont wanted to put in the budget the costs of the referendum but the Court said that it's illegal.

Did the same happened in 2014? I don't recall.

[Lord Halifax]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

In theory you would have the Spanish government activating article 155 of the constitution, which states:

(...)

What that means is basically that Catalonia's government is suspended temporarily. PP has an absolute majority in the Senate so there's no chance of the opposition blocking that move somehow as well. It's also likely that the entire Catalan cabinet gets arrested by the Guardia Civil under charges of sedition, treason or something like that. After that, who knows?

If there's no resistance, then the thing ends there. There would probably be a temporary appointed governor or something, and maybe a snap regional election.

If there's resistance however, then you do have the repression, the army intervening and what not, but I personally think that's extremely unlikely. The Mossos (Catalonia's police) would probably not fight the national police or army, and other than protests where some members could turn violent, nothing else would happen.

Are there any majority Catalan units in the army?

[mgop]

it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?

It's used to attack Podemos, whose leaders have some ties to Chavez and Maduro's regimes. Nothing illegal, but still enough for attacks from the right.

[parochial boy]

Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

[mgop]

it's not 1817. it's 2017. so why is venezuela theme in spanish election?

It's used to attack Podemos, whose leaders have some ties to Chavez and Maduro's regimes. Nothing illegal, but still enough for attacks from the right.

spanish right obsession with venezuela is really sad.

[mgop]

Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

spanish gov probably know those polling are fake and that vast majority of catalans are for independence, that's why they doesn't approve referendum.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

Iirc other than the urban-rural split there's also an age split, with younger voters being more favourable to independence than old voters. That is often used by the hard right as an argument to say that  the Catalan government is "brainwashing" kids.

I do not think there's a meaningful split along the lines of income.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Ok, the debt ceiling will be approved this afternoon. The votes will be exactly the same as for the 2017 budget (so, PP+Cs+PNV+CC+NCa), with the minor difference that NCa will abstain instead of voting in favour, turning it into a razor thin 175-174 vote (as opposed to the budget's 176-174)

It is also expected that the 2018 budget will be passed in a similar fashion.

What this means is that basically, Rajoy will be safe for at least another year. He might call an early election in late 2018 but I don't think that is likely even if he were unable to pass a budget for 2019 (he could just recycle the 2018 budget). A budget not being passed has been used in the past as the excuse for an early election though (so the 1996 election was called a year early after González was unable to pass a budget for the year) so who knows.

I do think a 2019 election is a lot more likely though, maybe even one in 2020, as far late as the law allows. 2019's only disadvantage is that there will be election fatigue with the european and regional elections that same year, but low turnout probably benefits PP anyways so he might go for it.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

OK, so Catalonia governor Puigdemont has fired 3 of his "ministers" because they weren't seen as loyal enough to the referendum. This is alongside the one he fired last week or the week before for the same reason, saying that he didn't think the referendum would happen.

I guess the Catalan government is in crisis mode? In any case, the 2nd of October will be a very interesting day.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/07/14/catalunya/1500016796_828492.html

[Velasco]

OK, so Catalonia governor Puigdemont has fired 3 of his "ministers" because they weren't seen as loyal enough to the referendum. This is alongside the one he fired last week or the week before for the same reason, saying that he didn't think the referendum would happen.

I guess the Catalan government is in crisis mode? In any case, the 2nd of October will be a very interesting day.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/07/14/catalunya/1500016796_828492.html

The three ministers fired by premier Puigdemont (Neus Munté, Jordi Jané and Meritxell Ruiz) are not featherweights. They have been removed due to pressure from vice-premier Oriol Junqueras (ERC). I'd say it's the Ouigdemont's party (PDECat, formerly CDC) the one in crisis mode.

In case of a snap election, ERC and PDECat will likely run separately. The Republican Left of Catalonia is expected to win, while the PDECat might crash. It wouldn't be strange a post-election agreement between ERC and Catalunya en Comú. The latter is the merger of Barcelona en Comú (Ada Colau's party), the Catalan branch of Podemos, ICV and EUiA (IU). The comuns ("commons") have been hardly pressured to support the referendum by separatist parties and organizations. Their middle-gound stance has not been well received by the pro-ondependence movement. On the other hand, the Comuns are far more comfortable in the middle ground than it was the PSC.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

2 new polls about Catalan independence have been released. They probably have a pro-independence bias, particularly the ARA poll, but still seems better than nothing:

CEO poll:


¿Should Catalonia become an independent state? (all voting age people)

Yes: 41.1%
No: 49.4%

Note that this is the worst result for "yes" since 2012 or so.

Catalonia should be...

An independent state: 34.7%
An autonomous community of Spain: 30.5%
An state inside a federal Spain: 21.7%
A region of Spain: 5.3%

Again worst result for independence since 2012.

Are you in favour of a referendum?

Yes, even if it's unilateral: 48%
Yes, but only if it's through a deal with the Spanish government: 23.4%
No, never: 22.6%

Estimated results of the 1st of October unilateral referendum

Yes: 62.4%
No: 37.6%

Turnout: 67.5%

Note that while independence support is going down, this would actually be a terrible result for unionists since it has both a supermajority for independence and a relatively high turnout, giving the Catalan government quite a lot of legitimacy!

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=6288&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica.+2a+onada+2017

ARA poll

Results



Estimated turnout:



Turnout by party:



Turnout by possition on independence



Voting intentions on the unilateral referendum by party



Neutral numbers for unionists here (both unionism and independentism go down in support for "don't know"), but again, if the referendum does happen in the end the numbers look really bad.

And the alternatives aren't much better. The government could try to negotiate with Puigdemont and make a legal referendum, but that's probably not going to happen and even if it did it would be very risky. Alternatively Rajoy could just activate article 155 and send the Guardia Civil to stop the referendum but creating martyrs would only increase support for independence.

[FrancoAgo]

afaik in catalunya there are very few men of guardia civil, they would be move guardia civil from neighbour comunitad or use the army, and if the mozos de escuadra obbey to the catalunya government we have a civil war

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

There has been a massive roadkill (is that the English term?) in one of Barcelona's most important streets. Not much is known but hopefully everything is alright. Several people are injured.

Here's a live news thing by El Periódico

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20170817/una-furgoneta-arrolla-a-varias-personas-en-la-rambla-de-barcelona-6228813

Edit 1: Terrorist attack confirmed. 20-25 injured, possibly 1 dead. Spanish passport found.

Edit 2: The terrorist(s) van driver are locked in a Turkish restaurant near La Boqueria. He has hostages.

Edit 3: The terrorists have split. One has gone missing the 2nd has hostages on that restaurant. There has been a shooting. 2 dead.

Edit 4: Live updates by The Guardian in English https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/aug/17/barcelona-attack-van-driven-into-crowd-in-las-ramblas-district

Edit 5: The area is completely locked down and evacuated with several metro stations closed. Also all major party leaders and politicians have condemned the attack.

Edit 6: 3 people dead now. The terrorist who escaped apparently escaped in a second van.

Edit 7: "up to" 6 dead, Spanish ID with an Arabic name on it found

Edit 8: 13 dead. The shooting I mentioned prior was a rumour and it didn't happen in the end.

[c r a b c a k e]

You would not use the term roadkill. In English that world refer to dead animals struck by autos.

And this is all very terrible

[mgop]

14 died, more than 100 injured. why spain?

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Well, yesterday's protest against terrorism, with the slogan "No tinc por" (I'm not afraid) has been quite controversial since it has been politizised by basically everyone in the political spectrum. You had republican flags, Spanish flags, Pro-independence flags, signs protesting the king's relations with Saudi Arabia, etc. The king got booed as well.

Both sides politizised this. Why? Can't we all march against terrorism without making a political statement?





Anyways, IMO at least 2 good things happened:

• Turnout was quite high, with half a million people attending the prostests. That's quite high. For reference last year's pro-independence marches attracted 625 000 people.
• It was attended by everyone in the political spectrum. The king was there (first time the king of Spain attends a public protest). The main political leaders (Rajoy, Rivera, Sánchez, Iglesias and the leaders of the regionalist parties) were there. All of Rajoy's cabinet was there. All 17 autonomous community governors were there.
   The march was boycotted by no one, not even CUP! (though they did threaten to do so because the king was there, but backtracked)

[Lord Halifax]

Well, yesterday's protest against terrorism, with the slogan "No tinc por" (I'm not afraid) has been quite controversial since it has been politizised by basically everyone in the political spectrum. You had republican flags, Spanish flags, Pro-independence flags, signs protesting the king's relations with Saudi Arabia, etc. The king got booed as well.

Both sides politizised this. Why? Can't we all march against terrorism without making a political statement?

Its meaningless to march against terrorism since its something everybody are against and the protest has zero impact on the terrorists.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Catalonia's government has released some crucial details about their "transition law" that would be activated if yes wins in their referendum.

It will be passed some time before the 1st of October.

Catalonia's superior justice court will become the Supreme Court. The president will be elected by a mixed commision with 5 members elected by the government and 4 by lower judges. The attorney general will be elected by parliament with an absolute majority. Judges dependent on Catalonia will remain on their jobs, but those that are from Spanish courts will be fired

The transition law will give amnesty to those prosecuted because of the independence process, including people like former governor Artur Mas, former deputy governor Joana Ortega, former speaker of the Generalitat and former leader of CDC in Congress Francesc Homs and former secretary of education Irene Rigau, all condemned because of their involvement in the 2014 illegal consultation

Spain's buildings in Catalonia will be expropiated. All Spanish civil servants will become Catalan civil servants.

It assumes that Catalonia will remain in the EU. All EU laws will automatically become Catalan laws, even after independence.

Having the Catalan nationality will not be incompatible with the Spanish one.

Catalonia won't pay its part of the Spanish debt unless there's a negotiation with Spain.

After 6 months there will be new elections to a constituent assembly to design a new constitution for Catalonia.

The official languages would be kept: Spanish, Catalan and Aranese

All powers of Spain over Catalonia would vanish

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here: https://tinyurl.com/y99vkf9z

[Lord Halifax]

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here: https://cronicaglobal.elespanol.com/uploads/s1/72/68/24/Proposici%C3%B3%20de%20llei%20de%20transitorietat%20jur%C3%ADdica%20i%20fundacional%20de%20la%20rep%C3%BAblica%20(1).pdf

The link is too big.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here:

The link is too big.

Ok, fixed it by taking it through tinyurl