Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

Yup, mil.ru and eng.mil.ru still appear to be offline. After several attempts I was able to temporarily reach kremlin.ru and en.kremlin.ru, but it takes a while and then the website looks pretty shot.

Appears that's because there's not enough bandwidth for the stylesheets and javascript files to load.

All of them are down right now.

[Person Man]

Did y’all see Rubios tweet? So ominous…

Which one?

[Person Man]

Did y’all see Rubios tweet? So ominous…

Which one?

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497776719855591431?cxt=HHwWjoC9vbf_lckpAA...

So the MRLP situation?

[Person Man]

Historic speech by Olaf Scholz. Germany completely changes its defense policy. It sounded like he would invest 100 billion EURO right here and now in military equipment and from now on spend at least 2% of GDP yearly on defense. This will furthermore have a ripple effect in that other NATO countries - like my own - have been hiding behind Germany in not spending the 2%. That will almost certainly change now.

This could actually be a real turning point. It could also signal a new world order where democratic Europe rises from the pathetic depence on the United States.

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia. Putin has so catastrophically f**ked up.

Also, just to add some more details to this announcement:

- the annual defense budget will be increased to 2% of GDP, or approximately an additional 22 billion EUR per year, by 2024
- 100 billion EUR to be invested in R&D, equipment, ammunition, upgrades etc. mostly to ensure that the effect of the budget does no longer translate to obsolete gear.
- to put this into perspective, the Bundeswehr in 2021 budgeted 10 billion on equipment procurement and R&D, with a total budget of 47 billion
- NordStream 2 is dead
- Germany will directly arm Ukraine
- European military production will be invested in, in order to become more independent. Heavy cooperation with France is expected
- investing in LNG shipping terminals to diversify away from Russian gas

It appears again that Biden succeeded in implementing Trump’s failed policies. This is the right way forward for the world.

[Person Man]

Awesome quote by CDU and Opposition leader Friedrich Merz in his Bundestag speech: "This clean democrat* [Putin], that he actually never was, has now turned into, on display for the whole world, a war criminal..."

* He used the term lupenreiner Demokrat, a referring to what Gerhard Schröder once called Putin. There's no exact translation for lupenrein, it means something like very "pure" or "clean" (the exact translation would be "lens clean").

A non-Latinized version of “transparent”.

[Person Man]

So Germany just radically changed almost a century of state policy on defense and Scholz is the one who did it?

Only Nixon could go to China.

[Person Man]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

With respect, what you write does not make much sense to me. You opine almost as if this was pre invasion where the invasion had never happened. You can't put humpty dumpty back together again. What does "neutrality" even mean? Even if an attack an one is an attack on all is not on a piece of paper,  Ukraine needs to be armed to the teeth on a subsidized basis, and its people are not going to accept being a vassal of Russia and told what to do by Russia ala Belarus. That ship has sailed.

It seems more likely now that even if Russia takes over the key points in Ukraine, it will face a debilitating guerilla war that will end up destabilizing Russia no matter what Putin does. I don't see what further can be offered Putin. Ukraine being part of NATO was not in the cards before. I suppose it is more in the cards now, and Putin could be offered that it won't happen as a fig leaf, but if in lieu thereof, Ukraine is weaponized by the west as described above, it is still a Putin defeat. Putin has forced the hand of the civilized world to make him the loser. All other options are worse. I might add that Putin has no interest in honoring any agreement that he enters into when it proves inconvenient for him, so any such pieces of paper are largely worthless too. He just needs to get his military assets out of Ukraine.

I suggest that you manage your asset portfolio on the assumption that your hopes/predictions/whatever have little or no nexus with reality. Until Putin is dead or deposed, the world economic order needs (and at this point I believe will)  quarantine Russia as much as possible as rapidly as possible.

What Putin really needs is a good killing.

Based

[Person Man]

lol okay so even Die Linke applauded Scholz's announcement. DIE LINKE. They also admitted openly in their parliamentary speech that they never expected Russia to do this, and how they were wrong on Russia.

I’ve heard similar “reflections” among the American left, and tbh it is stunning to me. It really reveals how naive they have been.

I’m just glad that it wasn’t too late but still for many.

[Person Man]

The Ukrainian position in the Southern Theater is critical. I don't see Mariupol standing for long. Ukrainian forces in the Donbass must make a choice, retreat or be cut off.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497965228868481033?t=f-PoeIxRdFzHE-cd4lbM...

It’s still amazing how they are still even fighting there.

[Person Man]

A very interesting read from the UK’s leading war studies academic, Lawrence Freedman, on the huge difficulties the Russians are facing:

https://samf.substack.com/p/the-fight-for-ukraine

In my previous post I explained why I thought that this war had begun badly for Russia and was likely to end badly. Even if the military campaign progressed with greater efficiency Putin was still likely to lose because he was following a delusional strategy – reflecting his belief that Ukraine was a non-state with no national identity, that Kyiv could be taken quickly, so that President Zelensky could be deposed, and that a compliant puppet regime could be installed in his stead. Nothing has yet happened to make me change that view.

I also warned that the coming days would be rougher and tougher, and so sadly it is proving, although if anything I understated the faltering character of the first waves of the Russian offensive. A high human and strategic price is now being paid by Moscow for some haphazard and arrogant planning, and for failing to think through the worst case as well as the best. 

It might be thought that a few days of limited progress will soon become irrelevant once the raw power of the Russian armed forces are brought to bear, but this is wrong. The first days set the conditions for those to come. They affect the transition from the first stage of conventional warfare to the next stage of urban warfare and potentially the stage after that of resistance to an unwelcome occupation.

The arrogance of landing a handful of paratroopers in Kiev's airport and thinking that would be enough to overthrow the city was astounding.

Thats a computer game strategy.

Can confirm. Would've done the same.

t. chronic swedish map painting gamer

I thought it was called “rushing”.

[Person Man]

Putin ordering his nuclear forces to high alert really seems to highlight how badly this is going for Russia. Now he's just throwing a tantrum and waving around his big weapons because he's losing lol.

I'm wondering what markets are going to do at the open. Imagine the closest decimal to zero you can think of for the Ruble, I guess.

If Putin ends up using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, then the US and NATO must wipe Russia off the face of the earth.

Yeah. At that point, Russian Federation will be dissolved, in all of the still habitable land will become international territory to eventually be open for settlement to those who can buy land for $20000 an acre.

[Person Man]

Putin fires top general

https://twitter.com/BillNeelyReport/status/1497989705903788036

This entire war feels like Power Rangers, Voltron, or something.

[Person Man]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

[Person Man]

I'm in Washington DC for a law school event right now. Please let me know when the Defcon level reaches 1 so I know when to leave the city. kthx

You got it, boss.

[Person Man]

I'm in Washington DC for a law school event right now. Please let me know when the Defcon level reaches 1 so I know when to leave the city. kthx

DEFCON 1 means t war has already started

“War is imminent”

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/GuyChazan/status/1498009666093211653
It's the least they could do.

For how they have touched the hearts of so many, the brave Ukrainians are doing for everyone far more than they ever could imagine.

[Person Man]

That moment when you've been wanting Europe to build more nuclear plants and contribute its fair share to NATO spending for 10 years and suddenly Putin makes it all happen in the span of a week.

So much winning.

[Person Man]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

Well this is why the US allied with Pakistan in the Cold War...

How should we deal with a China vs India situation?

[Person Man]

Does Ukraine have drones? Wondering if us Americans could give them some.

They’ve bought quite a few of those Turkish drones the Azerbaijanis used against Armenia

They’ve already defeated some armor with them, right?

[Person Man]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/27/romney-russia-putin-geopolitical-foe-obama-sot-reax-bash-sotu-vpx.cnn

Wow Romney bashes President Bush here to just not Obama and Trump

Bush pussied out on Russia just like Obama and Trump did

Bush was tricked by him. Obama was naive and Trump was complicit.

[Person Man]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/27/romney-russia-putin-geopolitical-foe-obama-sot-reax-bash-sotu-vpx.cnn

Wow Romney bashes President Bush here to just not Obama and Trump

Bush pussied out on Russia just like Obama and Trump did

Bush was tricked by him. Obama was naive and Trump was complicit.

That's a fair analysis tbh

I would go so far as to say that we wouldn’t be talking about Russia now if 2016 was different.

[Person Man]

Albanian reunification soon?

https://mobile.twitter.com/tedreinert/status/1498026822822293507

What do we have to lose at this point?

[Person Man]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/27/romney-russia-putin-geopolitical-foe-obama-sot-reax-bash-sotu-vpx.cnn

Wow Romney bashes President Bush here to just not Obama and Trump

Bush pussied out on Russia just like Obama and Trump did

Bush was tricked by him. Obama was naive and Trump was complicit.

That's a fair analysis tbh

I would go so far as to say that we wouldn’t be talking about Russia now if 20162012 was different.

FTFY

Probably tbh.

[Person Man]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

Looks like a mushroom cloud.

[Person Man]

LOL, is this for real?

https://twitter.com/HelenKennedy/status/1498027257293524992

It’s a crossover between Command and Conquer and GTA.