Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It certainly could impact plans relating to QUAD if Russia gets a high enough focus in US defense plans, but then again, India always looks out for itself first and foremost, and its relationship with Russia has never been, as far as I know, negative as a whole. India, QUAD or no QUAD, was always likely to want to adhere to an autonomous geopolitical strategy calculated to help Indian interests above all else.

For me, India is the key swing power of the future in the struggle between the Western Alliance and the Euroasian bloc (PRC-Russia.)  This is why the PRC antagonizing India over the last couple of years is extremely foolhardy.  Good news for PRC is, India has a strong sense of independence and is unlikely to join the Western alliance and will insist on it being its own separate independent Great Power.

I agree completely.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would be very skeptical that the U.S. is at DEFCON 2 based on the reports of one private organization.

[NOVA Green]

"Oligarchs Against the War" Movement Expands per The Guardian:

(More in this article so please click the free link at the bottom to view all content).

"
Two top Russian billionaires speak out against invasion of Ukraine

Oleg Deripaska and Ukrainian-born Mikhail Fridman call for peace, as activities come under threat from sanctions

"Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska have become two of the country’s first leading businesspeople to speak out against Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Fridman, who is one of Russia’s richest men, controls private equity firm LetterOne and was a founder of Alfa Bank, Russia’s largest private bank. In a letter to his employees he called for an end to the “bloodshed”.

Ukrainian-born Fridman sent an email to staff at LetterOne, first reported by the Financial Times, in which he wrote “war can never be the answer”.

Describing his Ukrainian roots in Lviv, where his parents still live, he wrote: “I have also spent much of my life as a citizen of Russia, building and growing businesses. I am deeply attached to Ukrainian and Russian peoples and see the current conflict as a tragedy for them both.”

Another Russian billionaire, Oleg Deripaska, called for peace talks to begin “as fast as possible” in a post on the messaging app Telegram.

“Peace is very important,” wrote Deripaska, who founded Russian aluminium giant Rusal, in which he still owns a stake through shares in its London-listed parent company EN+ Group.

Deripaska, who said as recently as 21 February there would not be a war in Ukraine, has been on the US sanctions list since 2018 over his alleged links to the Russian government, which he has taken legal action to challenge.

..."





https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/27/two-top-russian-billionaires-speak-out-against-invasion-of-ukraine

[Person Man]

I'm in Washington DC for a law school event right now. Please let me know when the Defcon level reaches 1 so I know when to leave the city. kthx

DEFCON 1 means t war has already started

“War is imminent”

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1498008314218745861

Seems like Klitschko has walked this back:

https://mobile.twitter.com/johannesboie/status/1498016772829679621?cxt=HHwWisC4w...

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/GuyChazan/status/1498009666093211653
It's the least they could do.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Russian ministry of Defense admits that "some" Russian soldiers have been captured by the Ukrainians.  But just like the USA 2003 playbook they also claim that these captured soldiers are being "tortured" by the Ukrainians.  The Russians also claim, from the same 2003 USA playbook, that the Ukrainians in Kyiv are using phosphorus munitions which are banned by the UN.

Honestly who cares what is or what isnt banned by the UN. We can use common sense to decide what is right or wrong and Russia is clearly the bad guys here and any measure the Ukrainians use to stop or resist them is justified

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/GuyChazan/status/1498009666093211653
It's the least they could do.

For how they have touched the hearts of so many, the brave Ukrainians are doing for everyone far more than they ever could imagine.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/GuyChazan/status/1498009666093211653
It's the least they could do.

For how they have touched the hearts of so many, the brave Ukrainians are doing for everyone far more than they ever could imagine.

Now sanction Russian Oil

[jaichind]

The Russian ministry of Defense admits that "some" Russian soldiers have been captured by the Ukrainians.  But just like the USA 2003 playbook they also claim that these captured soldiers are being "tortured" by the Ukrainians.  The Russians also claim, from the same 2003 USA playbook, that the Ukrainians in Kyiv are using phosphorus munitions which are banned by the UN.

Honestly who cares what is or what isnt banned by the UN. We can use common sense to decide what is right or wrong and Russia is clearly the bad guys here and any measure the Ukrainians use to stop or resist them is justified

My point is, just like 2003 USA claims about the Iraq military using chemical weapons against the USA, I think this Russian claim is bogus.

[John Dule]

That moment when you've been wanting Europe to build more nuclear plants and contribute its fair share to NATO spending for 10 years and suddenly Putin makes it all happen in the span of a week.

[Person Man]

That moment when you've been wanting Europe to build more nuclear plants and contribute its fair share to NATO spending for 10 years and suddenly Putin makes it all happen in the span of a week.

So much winning.

[NOVA Green]

New York Times update from 17 minutes ago: (Click on link for visuals)

"Satellite images show large unit of Russian troops near Kyiv.

New satellite images from Sunday show Russian ground forces getting closer to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv. A long convoy is stretched out over more than three miles of road, consisting of hundreds of vehicles according to Maxar Technologies, which released the images. Videos posted to Twitter on Sunday also show a large convoy, possibly the same one as in the satellite images.

The forces include infantry fighting and supply vehicles around 40 miles northwest of Kyiv. They are on a road that leads to the area of fierce fighting that was captured in a dramatic video Saturday."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war/satellite-images-show-large-unit-of-russian-troops-near-kyiv

[Blue3]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

Well this is why the US allied with Pakistan in the Cold War...

[Person Man]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

Well this is why the US allied with Pakistan in the Cold War...

How should we deal with a China vs India situation?

[Aurelius]

Does Ukraine have drones? Wondering if us Americans could give them some.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/GuyChazan/status/1498009666093211653
It's the least they could do.

Sadly, this is not what was stated and Hassel's statement is clickbait. Habeck stated his ministry has taken a closer look at it and that Germany's NPPs won't help in the next winter, underlining that the energy companies don't want to run them for longer either, but that he would not approach this ideologically. It is highly unlikely the phase-out is being ditched, but the chances of a repeal of the repeal of the repeal of the nuclear phase-out have risen a lot.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Russian ministry of Defense admits that "some" Russian soldiers have been captured by the Ukrainians.  But just like the USA 2003 playbook they also claim that these captured soldiers are being "tortured" by the Ukrainians.  The Russians also claim, from the same 2003 USA playbook, that the Ukrainians in Kyiv are using phosphorus munitions which are banned by the UN.

Honestly who cares what is or what isnt banned by the UN. We can use common sense to decide what is right or wrong and Russia is clearly the bad guys here and any measure the Ukrainians use to stop or resist them is justified

My point is, just like 2003 USA claims about the Iraq military using chemical weapons against the USA, I think this Russian claim is bogus.

The white phosphorus claim sounds like it's mainly for domestic consumption, and partially for international PR.
Also, is white phosphorus even in the Ukrainian arsenal of tactics? Is it in Russia's?

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Does Ukraine have drones? Wondering if us Americans could give them some.

They’ve bought quite a few of those Turkish drones the Azerbaijanis used against Armenia

[NOVA Green]

CNN update from Kharkiv as of ~ 5 minutes ago (Includes video footage):

(I'm assuming this is possibly parts of some of the other footage we have seen from Kharkiv earlier today?)

"Videos show Ukrainian forces repel Russian advance towards possible strategic airfield in northeast Kharkiv


From CNN's Paul P. Murphy, Katie Polglase, Gianluca Mezzofiore, Tim Lister and Josh Pennington

Videos uploaded to social media are giving a rare view of clashes between Russian and Ukrainian military forces on the streets of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine.

....

One sequence of videos uploaded to social media show an attempt by a Russian unit to advance towards an important airfield and arms factory in the northeast of Kharkiv. The airfield at the Kharkiv State Aircraft Manufacturing Company is small — just a single runway — but might be a useful bridgehead for the Russians.

CNN has geolocated and verified the authenticity of the videos.

The first video, taken by a resident, shows a convoy of Russian troops surrounding military vehicles, creeping along a roadway that ends near the airfield.

"There are two [military vehicles] as far as I can see," someone says in the video. "A third one is crawling through with infantry who are wielding automatic rifles."
Suddenly, gunfire is heard and seen.

A Russian soldier is seen quickly kneeling and firing a shoulder-fired rocket towards the area where the gunfire appears to be coming from.

A second video, taken after the firefight, shows the military vehicles driving in reverse in an apparent retreat. The Russian troops are seen huddled behind their vehicles.

...

Their efforts to retreat appear to have been stopped by another attack. A convoy of vehicles — the same type — is seen on fire in another video.

...

"

[Person Man]

Does Ukraine have drones? Wondering if us Americans could give them some.

They’ve bought quite a few of those Turkish drones the Azerbaijanis used against Armenia

They’ve already defeated some armor with them, right?

[NOVA Green]

Does Ukraine have drones? Wondering if us Americans could give them some.

Yes--- Turkish supplied Anti-Tank drones. Here is an example of how they are being used from a post I made a few hours ago:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8500298#msg8500298

[It’s so Joever]

Does Ukraine have drones? Wondering if us Americans could give them some.

Iirc they have been using Turkish donated drones.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/samueloakford/status/1498020453088043010?t=w6S_KqNFB1aoC7wCx...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What impact do y'all think this war will have long-term, in regards to Turkey's role in NATO?