Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I've seen a lot of posts and articles talking about how outmatched Ukraine is in terms of personnel, equipment, and funding. This CNN post, for example, discusses how Russia's military budget eclipses Ukraine's by a factor of ten to one.

However, doesn't this overlook some pretty basic logistical differences? First and most obvious, Ukraine does not have a nuclear weapons program to maintain. Also, Russia is currently maintaining other military sites across Eurasia while a fraction of its army faces literally the entire army of Ukraine. The statistics about vehicles are also pretty scary, but even so, tanks and trucks are only useful so long as you can guarantee them a steady supply of gasoline. The air force comparison is also overwhelming though, which makes it surprising that Russia hasn't been able to obtain total air control yet.

I sincerely hope I underestimated Ukraine at the outset of this war. I didn't realize they actually have one of the higher military budgets in Europe.

Something to consider when talking about Russian equipment is that Russia, due to it’s status as the arms supplier of choice for everyone the Western world won’t sell to, tends to inflate their capabilities while Western nations tend be deliberately very vague about what their new equipment can do so that competitors can’t bench mark it. Rule of thumb, anything American, French, or German is better than publicly available sources say and anything Russian is worse than public sources say.

Of course that may not really apply here since both sides are largely fighting with the same stuff.

The other factor at play here is that Russia, even though the regional forces they have deployed look overwhelming, does not seem to have the capacity to deploy them all at once. EG their air forces look vastly superior but it may be that simply can’t don’t have the fuel, parts, and mechanics to keep all that many flying. Plus, they seem to have failed to clear Ukrainian air defenses also seem to have largely survived the initial wave of strikes (lack of precision motions?).

With the numbers, it’s unlikely Ukraine can hold out, but it’s looking allot bloodier and allot longer than it did on paper.

[NOVA Green]

Not necessarily completely relevant to the international dimension, but Trump once again opened his mouth on the situation in Ukraine:

"Trump praises Putin but calls invasion ‘appalling’


By Colby Itkowitz9:13 p.m.

Former president Donald Trump again lauded Russian President Vladimir Putin as “smart,” telling a crowd of his most ardent supporters that the problem is not with Putin, but that U.S. leaders “are dumb.”

Most of Trump’s comments about the Russian invasion of Ukraine during his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando on Saturday were focused on himself and his grievances; he and Putin understood each other, Trump said, so this wouldn’t be happening if he were still president.

He mildly criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine without denigrating Putin directly, saying it’s “appalling and it’s an outrage and an atrocity that should never have been allowed to occur.” It would never have happened “if our election was not rigged,” he said — a reference to Trump’s false assertion that a 2020 election win was stolen from him.

The former president called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “brave man,” then quickly qualified his affinity for Zelensky, who was the central figure in the 2019 impeachment charges against Trump. At the time, Zelensky said he hadn’t felt pressured during a phone call in which Trump conditioned U.S. military aid on Ukraine digging up dirt on Joe Biden and his family.

Before his CPAC remarks, Trump told reporters that the war in Ukraine could “spread throughout the world.”

“This could be a world war,” he said. “Something has to be done.”

Asked what specifically should be done, Trump said there were things “that would end it very quickly,” but he wasn’t going to talk about them to the news media. "



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-updates/#link-R2K3JOQR4BG6ZFMPF63DLLQLAU

[AndyHogan14]

When was the last time we saw Putin live on camera? Was it that bizarre staged meeting about recognizing the DPR and LPR?* Perhaps there is some truth to the report floating out there that he is in a bunker in the Urals.

*The war declaration video was prerecorded, right?

[Flyersfan232]

Not necessarily completely relevant to the international dimension, but Trump once again opened his mouth on the situation in Ukraine:

"Trump praises Putin but calls invasion ‘appalling’


By Colby Itkowitz9:13 p.m.

Former president Donald Trump again lauded Russian President Vladimir Putin as “smart,” telling a crowd of his most ardent supporters that the problem is not with Putin, but that U.S. leaders “are dumb.”

Most of Trump’s comments about the Russian invasion of Ukraine during his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Orlando on Saturday were focused on himself and his grievances; he and Putin understood each other, Trump said, so this wouldn’t be happening if he were still president.

He mildly criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine without denigrating Putin directly, saying it’s “appalling and it’s an outrage and an atrocity that should never have been allowed to occur.” It would never have happened “if our election was not rigged,” he said — a reference to Trump’s false assertion that a 2020 election win was stolen from him.

The former president called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a “brave man,” then quickly qualified his affinity for Zelensky, who was the central figure in the 2019 impeachment charges against Trump. At the time, Zelensky said he hadn’t felt pressured during a phone call in which Trump conditioned U.S. military aid on Ukraine digging up dirt on Joe Biden and his family.

Before his CPAC remarks, Trump told reporters that the war in Ukraine could “spread throughout the world.”

“This could be a world war,” he said. “Something has to be done.”

Asked what specifically should be done, Trump said there were things “that would end it very quickly,” but he wasn’t going to talk about them to the news media. "



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-updates/#link-R2K3JOQR4BG6ZFMPF63DLLQLAU

calling someone smart isnt the same as praising them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Just heard on CNN that Russia has destroyed the dam northwest of Kiev.

Is there another Source?

I think I already read this earlier this morning or heard it on radio.

Well sounds like a Russia missile headed for the dam was shot down 11 hours ago... so not implausible since sounds like Russia has it on their target list of acceptable military options.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/ukraine-says-russian-missile-headed-for-water-reservoir-near-kyiv-shot-down/

So recent confirmation of Russian destruction of the Dam near Crimea from the Washington Post:

"Russia claims to explode Ukrainian dam that had blocked water to Crimea

By Meg Kelly, Elyse Samuels and Atthar Mirza7:00 p.m.

Video verified by The Washington Post captured a large explosion at a dam along the Northern Crimean Canal on Saturday that had been a source of increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine over water rights.

Russian media shared the video, saying Russian military forces were responsible for the destruction. It is unclear who originally recorded the video.

The first frames of the video show that the bridge crossing the river had already fallen by the time of the explosion. Then, a large cloud of black and grey dust enveloped the area. Rubble showers down into the river.

Recent images show that the bridge was intact as recently as January.

Ukraine built the makeshift dam in 2014 after the Russian annexation of Crimea, blocking what had been a main source of water for the region. Hostilities over it increased in recent months after a drought worsened Crimea’s water crisis, and Ukraine made efforts to build a more permanent piece of infrastructure. Reports from as early as May 2021 suggested the situation was serious enough that residents in the area, roughly 10 miles from the Crimea border, were preparing for war."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-updates/#link-R2K3JOQR4BG6ZFMPF63DLLQLAU

One matter of relevance (and this is one that didn't get mentioned much if at all in Western media though it likely was a minor contributor to this war occurring) was the game of cat-and-mouse between Ukraine and Russia that played out after Russia's seizure of Crimea.

After Russia took the peninsula in contradiction of international convention, Ukraine (also in contradiction of international convention) built structures designed to starve the peninsula of water (kind of like how China's building lots of dams now in Tibet). Russia's been critical of this behavior of Ukraine's for years, so I'm sure that the destruction of these dams (assuming it happened thus far - I'd feel we need information to confirm this rather than taking the Russians at face value) is being celebrated in Crimea as of right now.

It's not unheard of for water to be used as a weapon in geopolitical conflicts, though. And it's not like either side in the lead-up to this conflict adhered to international law too rigorously.

[Roll Roons]

With the numbers, it’s unlikely Ukraine can hold out, but it’s looking allot bloodier and allot longer than it did on paper.

And if the whole situation (a wrecked economy and thousands of Russia's boys being sent to a meat grinder) ultimately results in Putin being ousted and China backing off Taiwan, it's one of the better possible outcomes.

[brucejoel99]

I've seen a lot of posts and articles talking about how outmatched Ukraine is in terms of personnel, equipment, and funding. This CNN post, for example, discusses how Russia's military budget eclipses Ukraine's by a factor of ten to one.

However, doesn't this overlook some pretty basic logistical differences? First and most obvious, Ukraine does not have a nuclear weapons program to maintain. Also, Russia is currently maintaining other military sites across Eurasia while a fraction of its army faces literally the entire army of Ukraine. The statistics about vehicles are also pretty scary, but even so, tanks and trucks are only useful so long as you can guarantee them a steady supply of gasoline. The air force comparison is also overwhelming though, which makes it surprising that Russia hasn't been able to obtain total air control yet.

I sincerely hope I underestimated Ukraine at the outset of this war. I didn't realize they actually have one of the higher military budgets in Europe.

Something to consider when talking about Russian equipment is that Russia, due to it’s status as the arms supplier of choice for everyone the Western world won’t sell to, tends to inflate their capabilities while Western nations tend be deliberately very vague about what their new equipment can do so that competitors can’t bench mark it. Rule of thumb, anything American, French, or German is better than publicly available sources say and anything Russian is worse than public sources say.

Of course that may not really apply here since both sides are largely fighting with the same stuff.

The other factor at play here is that Russia, even though the regional forces they have deployed look overwhelming, does not seem to have the capacity to deploy them all at once. EG their air forces look vastly superior but it may be that simply can’t don’t have the fuel, parts, and mechanics to keep all that many flying. Plus, they seem to have failed to clear Ukrainian air defenses also seem to have largely survived the initial wave of strikes (lack of precision motions?).

With the numbers, it’s unlikely Ukraine can hold out, but it’s looking allot bloodier and allot longer than it did on paper.

Something else to consider further still are the unconfirmed rumors that the war is apparently costing Russia $10 billion/day & that their weapons & ammunitions stockpiles aren't expected to last them very long, with the Russians only having about 3-4 days' worth of cruise missiles left before they'll lose their ability to strike past the frontline. If those are the kinds of supply issues that Russia is really facing, then Ukraine realistically has to only make it about 2 weeks before Russia will - both economically (i.e., if the oligarchs really do bankroll Putin & start running out of money) & due to a further impending lack of resources since the Russian military clearly isn't as great as everybody thought that it was - need to enter negotiations, & honestly, I think that they could make it that long so long as the West steps up their support.

[It’s so Joever]

I've seen a lot of posts and articles talking about how outmatched Ukraine is in terms of personnel, equipment, and funding. This CNN post, for example, discusses how Russia's military budget eclipses Ukraine's by a factor of ten to one.

However, doesn't this overlook some pretty basic logistical differences? First and most obvious, Ukraine does not have a nuclear weapons program to maintain. Also, Russia is currently maintaining other military sites across Eurasia while a fraction of its army faces literally the entire army of Ukraine. The statistics about vehicles are also pretty scary, but even so, tanks and trucks are only useful so long as you can guarantee them a steady supply of gasoline. The air force comparison is also overwhelming though, which makes it surprising that Russia hasn't been able to obtain total air control yet.

I sincerely hope I underestimated Ukraine at the outset of this war. I didn't realize they actually have one of the higher military budgets in Europe.

Something to consider when talking about Russian equipment is that Russia, due to it’s status as the arms supplier of choice for everyone the Western world won’t sell to, tends to inflate their capabilities while Western nations tend be deliberately very vague about what their new equipment can do so that competitors can’t bench mark it. Rule of thumb, anything American, French, or German is better than publicly available sources say and anything Russian is worse than public sources say.

Of course that may not really apply here since both sides are largely fighting with the same stuff.

The other factor at play here is that Russia, even though the regional forces they have deployed look overwhelming, does not seem to have the capacity to deploy them all at once. EG their air forces look vastly superior but it may be that simply can’t don’t have the fuel, parts, and mechanics to keep all that many flying. Plus, they seem to have failed to clear Ukrainian air defenses also seem to have largely survived the initial wave of strikes (lack of precision motions?).

With the numbers, it’s unlikely Ukraine can hold out, but it’s looking allot bloodier and allot longer than it did on paper.

Something else to consider further still are the unconfirmed rumors that the war is apparently costing Russia $10 billion/day & that their weapons & ammunitions stockpiles aren't expected to last them very long, with the Russians only having about 3-4 days' worth of cruise missiles left before they'll lose their ability to strike past the frontline. If those are the kinds of supply issues that Russia is really facing, then Ukraine realistically has to only make it about 2 weeks before Russia will - both economically (i.e., if the oligarchs really do bankroll Putin & start running out of money) & due to a further impending lack of resources since the Russian military clearly isn't as great as everybody thought that it was - need to enter negotiations, & honestly, I think that they could make it that long so long as the West steps up their support.

I hope…but Russia is still making some good strides. We will see.

[Storr]

Free tank, slightly used, sold as-is, buyer responsible for shipping:

https://twitter.com/DrAlakbarov/status/1497756198678016007?s=20&t=xCsO1wmgtL...

[Beet]

Even if Russia resorts to negotiation, it will only be another temporary truce unless they are offered something serious - such as Ukraine abstaining from NATO and true Ukrainian neutrality, which is extremely unlikely now. The problem is that Putin needs to succeed for domestic political reasons so he'll throw everything into Ukraine. Western weapons going into the area and hoping it's even more bloody will just result in more people being killed on both sides. Of course, we don't have to deal with the consequences of that living here in the West.

[It’s so Joever]

Why is it so quiet?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why is it so quiet?

5am in Kiev?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Why is it so quiet?

Lots of Ukraine got its internet knocked out.

[Storr]

Why is it so quiet?

I saw on twitter on the first night of the invasion (so grain of salt) that the Russians don't have proper night vision equipment needed to conduct motorized operations at night. It makes sense with all the videos of Russian columns only showing them moving during daytime.

[Omega21]

Why is it so quiet?

Seems this "just the tip" tactic is not working out for the Russians. Their supply lines are not flowing smoothly & their forces are too thin to repel concentrated Ukranian counter-attacks. We can fairly safely assume that by all the abandoned vehicles & constant swapping of control between them and the Ukranians.

From what I could gather from most analysts online, Russia has sent in around 1/3 of battle ready forces near the border.

I am assuming Putin thought that would be enough to take over, while at the same time avoiding mass civilian casualties since enough of it may trigger uproar even amongst Russians.

We know the most destructive weapons are already in the country, and have not yet been used against stiff Urban resistance.

The only question is, would he be ready to go all in and crush them by any means necessary if this drags on?

[Stockdale for Veep]

I am trying to restrain myself from hyperbole in asking this, but on what possible issues could one agree with Vladimir Putin on? Serious question.

The Soviet anthem is objectively bad-ass, and one of the best anthems ever. Cosmonaut sounds cooler than Astronaut.

That's all I got.

[It’s so Joever]

Did y’all see Rubios tweet? So ominous…

[Person Man]

Did y’all see Rubios tweet? So ominous…

Which one?

[Cassius]

While I used to be able to sympathize with some of Putin's views on certain issues, now I just can't. Putin is 100% without a doubt a war criminal now and I do not sympathize with war criminals! I still don't support US troops in Ukraine and hope that both sides can find a solution rather quickly, which sadly looks pretty unlikely at this point.

Just thought I'd give my two cents.

 I am trying to restrain myself from hyperbole in asking this, but on what possible issues could one agree with Vladimir Putin on? Serious question.

Bringing stability to your country and raising it up from being an Oligarch dominated disaster zone like Russia in the 1990s or the United States.

[S019]

Did y’all see Rubios tweet? So ominous…

Which one?

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497776719855591431?cxt=HHwWjoC9vbf_lckpAA...

[Omega21]

Did y’all see Rubios tweet? So ominous…

Which one?

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497776719855591431?cxt=HHwWjoC9vbf_lckpAA...

Grozny 2.0?

I really hope its not anything that ominous, but Rubio has been almost spot on correct on nearly everything he predicted so far.

[Person Man]

Did y’all see Rubios tweet? So ominous…

Which one?

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497776719855591431?cxt=HHwWjoC9vbf_lckpAA...

So the MRLP situation?

[Orwell]

I know BRTD said this but am I the only one else thinking Rubio is way more based now?

[Cassius]

When was the last time any Russian government extradited somebody for war crimes? Unless the Special Forces are planning to penetrate Russia and extradite the Russian leadership I think the chances of any Russian going to trial for war crimes are about the same as Jack the Ripper facing a trial by jury.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Can’t believe I have little more respect for Little Marco now.