Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Turner was not running, Browns transgender remarks would have led to the DNC denouncing her and treating her like a pariah. You can't convince me otherwise

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Praying to God Turner wins. If ASL won in NM 01 I wouldn't care about this race but we(the left) can't afford another loss. X, what odds do you give Turner at this point?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I had a bad feeling about this one.
Oh well, onto Kurt Schrader

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

FL is a very hostile state for progressive dems, so this is a pretty damning indictment on the incompetency of the FL state party.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If VA GOv and NJ gov were held in months other than November I'm inclined to believe McAuliffe would have won and Murphy would have won by double digits. Trends are real folks. Dems are the party of high turnout voters now

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If VA GOv and NJ gov were held in months other than November I'm inclined to believe McAuliffe would have own and Murphy would have won by double digits. Trends are real folks. Dems are the party of high turnout voters now

You don’t think Dobbs was a turning point?

Of course not! We're screwed in November folks

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What would electionsguy be saying now lol

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Greene is a HUGE MOLINARO OVERPERFORMANCE

Forum lurker, do you want Molinaro to win?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't think dems understand how crucial this is. Molinari is going to be very difficult to beat once he gets in

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Such a weird feeling to be on the other side of polling misses for the first time since, like, 2017, but really 2012

It really shouldn’t be surprising.  I’ve been saying ever since Dobbs that polls will likely underestimate Dems this year.  Polling misses are usually due to energized low-propensity voters.  In 2016 and 2020 this was WWC Trumpers.  But in 2022 this will be largely Zoomer women.

Nonsense. Women are more likely to vote than men.
The miss was likely because it was a special election and turnout was terrible. The firm probably used a medium turnout model

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Also one interesting note is that based on 2020 Pres, NY-19 would've been very very close to the median House seat. This is why I don't think the House is *completely* gone for Dems.

It is. This is a Blue mirage folks. In November lots of rs that only vote in November elections will show up

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So how big of a deal is this win? What was the PVI?

Pretty big deal. The district was Biden + 1.5 and was slightly to the right of teh tipping point on both the new and old lines. It also seems like Ryan could even narrowly beat Bidens + 1.5 margin.

Another important dynamic was the turnout which is really what allowed Ryan to win even as Molinaro overperformed in his hom base of Duthcess County and some rural areas.

Ding Ding Ding
Republicans didn't vote. They will in November.
I do think this disproves the whole idea dems aren't enthusiastic. They are Fired up!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

WOW. I am utterly lost for words.
 I think democrats should be motivated by this result. I would personally play defense for the most part just because our majority is so small and we should not get overconfident but we can definitely play some offense too.
 I agree with MT Treasurer and some others that Peltola is NOT doomed in November, and that's regardless of what the environment ends up being. AK is a weird state that has strange electoral results some times. I mean, Mark Begich nearly won in 2014 for goodness sakes.
 And seriously, anyone arguing candidate quality doesn't matter needs to wake up. Not only is Palin weak, but I'd argue Peltola is very strong. Doesn't bode well for J.D. Vance imo