Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Just let Forumlurker be Forumlurker, yall. We don't know what the final result will be.

[wbrocks67]

Of course every other NY race is counting quickly except for the two specials lol

[Lief 🗽]

Ryan is the narrow favorite right now.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 25,357 (60.55%)
MOLINARO: 16,524 (39.45%)

DELLA PIA: 17,335 (59.50%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 11,800 (40.50%)

[LimoLiberal]

Ryan won 60% of the first batch of election day votes in Ulster! Unclear where they came from, though.

Sullivan results are definitely the most discouraging for Dems - Ryan underperforming Biden by 5 points in margin with 30% (presumably election day) votes outstanding.

[It’s so Joever]

Pia also overperformed but by much less in Chautauqua

[wbrocks67]

Allegedly 56% of the vote is in Duchess and Ryan is +25.

Delgado won by 5 in 2018 and 10 in 2020.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 26,910 (59.86%)
MOLINARO: 18,045 (40.14%)

DELLA PIA: 17,578 (59.49%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 11,969 (40.51%)

[LimoLiberal]

Allegedly 56% of the vote is in Duchess and Ryan is +25.

Delgado won by 5 in 2018 and 10 in 2020.

Ignore the NYT "% est. reported". They are very very wrong - there are probably at least 35,000 votes remaining to be counted in Dutchess.

[wbrocks67]

Is it just illusion of the EV or is Pia severely overperforming in NY-23?

[Boobs]

DDHQ %s in for the NY specials counties seem off. I'd be wary.

[It’s so Joever]

Is it just illusion of the EV or is Pia severely overperforming in NY-23?

It would appear to be the case.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 26,910 (59.86%)
MOLINARO: 18,045 (40.14%)

DELLA PIA: 18,941 (56.92%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 14,337 (43.08%)

[wbrocks67]

Allegedly 56% of the vote is in Duchess and Ryan is +25.

Delgado won by 5 in 2018 and 10 in 2020.

Ignore the NYT "% est. reported". They are very very wrong - there are probably at least 35,000 votes remaining to be counted in Dutchess.

That seems highly unlikely. It looks like we're headed for about 1/3 turnout of 2020. Duchess had ~58K votes in 2020, which would mean about ~20K today. We're at 8k right now, which I would imagine would mean we're like 40% in.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What would electionsguy be saying now lol

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Is it just illusion of the EV or is Pia severely overperforming in NY-23?

"Severely overperforming" is not a phrase my brain would have come up with.

[wbrocks67]

DDHQ %s in for the NY specials counties seem off. I'd be wary.

Yeah, NYT is being a bit wonky as well but from what I can tell turnout is low everywhere. The hotly contested Dem primaries are both at 62K and 77K and seem to be close to done counting.

[wbrocks67]

RYAN: 26,910 (59.86%)
MOLINARO: 18,045 (40.14%)

DELLA PIA: 18,941 (56.92%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 14,337 (43.08%)

is this DDHQ? they seem to be a bit faster than NY Times

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 29,345 (57.63%)
MOLINARO: 21,578 (42.37%)

DELLA PIA: 20,253 (54.79%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 16,711 (45.21%)

What would electionsguy be saying now lol

(43.97%)

Molinaro will win by 20 dumbass
It's a D midterm Molinaro will obviously win by double digits
The national environment will pull Molinaro over the finish line
>E-Day votes haven't come in yet
WHITE PEOPLE VOTE LATE
This was always going to happen

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What would electionsguy be saying now lol

The Virgin ElectionsGuy vs. The Chad Pat Ryan

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 26,910 (59.86%)
MOLINARO: 18,045 (40.14%)

DELLA PIA: 18,941 (56.92%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 14,337 (43.08%)

is this DDHQ? they seem to be a bit faster than NY Times

Yep. I do hate though how I have to try like five different sites to see which one is the fastest since it changes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

DDHQ %s in for the NY specials counties seem off. I'd be wary.

Yeah, NYT is being a bit wonky as well but from what I can tell turnout is low everywhere. The hotly contested Dem primaries are both at 62K and 77K and seem to be close to done counting.

In NY-10, they said it was done counting when there was 47k ballots in. Now we're up to 63k and still going.

[LimoLiberal]

Allegedly 56% of the vote is in Duchess and Ryan is +25.

Delgado won by 5 in 2018 and 10 in 2020.

Ignore the NYT "% est. reported". They are very very wrong - there are probably at least 35,000 votes remaining to be counted in Dutchess.

That seems highly unlikely. It looks like we're headed for about 1/3 turnout of 2020. Duchess had ~58K votes in 2020, which would mean about ~20K today. We're at 8k right now, which I would imagine would mean we're like 40% in.

You're totally right - I didn't realize only part of the county was in the district. My bad!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

RYAN: 30,749 (56.50%)
MOLINARO: 23,675 (43.50%)

DELLA PIA: 23,334 (57.23%)
SEMPOLINSKI: 17,440 (42.77%)

[Eraserhead]

I wasn't really gonna follow this. I figured Molinaro was pretty safe for a single digit victory. Hmm...