Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

The dominant impression is either Rajoy resigns today (and calls elections) or the PNV will vote "yes" tomorrow.

Unsurprisingly Cs priority is not ousting Rajoy and the corrupt PP. Rather electioneering and confronting Catalan separatists.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Cs doing well right now evokes (or at least reminds of) the spirit of pre-2011 UK, when the Lib Dems did well off the back of the 'none-of-the-above' vote.

[Oryxslayer]

The Cs doing well right now evokes (or at least reminds of) the spirit of pre-2011 UK, when the Lib Dems did well off the back of the 'none-of-the-above' vote.

Well, C's isn't really a 'none' vote, it is a right-centrist vote that plays upon the fears of Catalan separatism. C's wants an election right now because Catalonia will be the dominant issue of the campaign, at least at the start, and C's completely owns the Catalan issue inside old Castille. why C's has plenty of Liberal issues on their platform, Catalonia is their Trump card that C's wants to ride all the way to victory.

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1002182168381132801?s=21

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why does PP do better among women?

Maybe this is because women are living longer than man and PP is generally party of the elderly people?

[jaichind]

Socialists Have the Votes to Oust Rajoy, TVE Says: Spain Update
(Bloomberg) -- Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy faces a decisive debate in parliament from Thursday as the Socialist opposition seeks the votes to oust him.
Lawmakers are due to vote on the no-confidence motion Friday and people close to the negotiations have been signaling that Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez is likely to get the support he needs to replace Rajoy as prime minister.
Read More: Rajoy or Not, Spain Bonds Not the Same Kettle of Fish as Italy
Sanchez already has the backing of the anti-establishment group Podemos and Esquerra Republicana, one of two Catalan separatist groups. He needs the other Catalan party, PdeCat, and the Basque Nationalists to clinch it.

[Former President tack50]

The dominant impression is either Rajoy resigns today (and calls elections) or the PNV will vote "yes" tomorrow.

Unsurprisingly Cs priority is not ousting Rajoy and the corrupt PP. Rather electioneering and confronting Catalan separatists.

Rajoy can't call an election if he resigns. If he resigns, it's as if the election happened yesterday. So, consultations with the king, candidate (almost certainly Sánchez) and investiture vote (which this time only requires a simple majority, unlike a no confidence vote). If 2 months after the first vote there is still no PM, new snap election automatically called.

In the mean time, either PM Rajoy or deputy PM Soraya will be acting PM, but neither would have the ability to call an election.

I'm not sure which of the 2 would be the acting PM. Back in 1981 and the 23F coup, Suárez was the acting PM during the coup, not deputy PM Gutiérrez Mellado; until Calvo-Sotelo was elected. However according to some Soraya would be acting PM instead of Rajoy.

[Former President tack50]

PNV will support the no confidence vote. So unless Rajoy has 5-6 moles inside PSOE, or PDECat or Podemos (which has an internal consultation ongoing though I seriously doubt the Podemos base will vote to keep Rajoy) unexpectedly vote no, it's over.

Only thing which could stop this now is Rajoy resigning. And at best it would mean an election on late August or early September. And at worst Sánchez still PM, but in like 2 weeks instead of tomorrow.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Astonishing that Rajoy lasted so long, despite seemingly never being hugely popular and walking through several crises/scandals that would have caused most leaders to be overthrown several times over.

[Velasco]

Happily the time of Mariano Rajoy is over.

Congress of Deputies before the no-confidence vote. The Left, Basque and Catalan nationalists and a Canarian regionalist in favour. PP, its regional allies (UPN and Foro) and Cs against, The Canary Coalition deputy abstains.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will he resign as PP leader as well?

[Velasco]

Will he resign as PP leader as well?

Mariano Rajoy has dissapeared. The motion debate is still going on (ERC dpokesman on stage right now), but the PM is not on his seat. Apparently Rajoy won't resign and will be ousted in tomorrow's vote. Nobody knows of he's going to stay as PP leader. Rajoy must be facing a personal drama, analysts say. He thinks the Court ruling doesn't  affect him. He lost the sense of reality. Hybris.

[Oryxslayer]

So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'

[Velasco]

Albert Rivera on stage, ostensibly angry at Mariano Rajoy's absence. PM should have taken control, but now is dissapeared and Rivera is left alone defending his vote against the motion. Cs leader says that PNV has been "disloyal". Now Rivera attacks Sánchez. Rivera, guardian of the integrity of Spain. Misplaced by the course of events, he sets up borders with "populists" and"separatists", that is to say the Sánchez's "companions of journey".

[Velasco]

So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'

Of course there will be a fresh election. The question is when.

[mgop]

ciudadanos are over. they voted for rajoy and against elections. their politics represent everything wrong with this world and they are typical establishment party.

[Former President tack50]

So while the vote will succeed, there has to be new elections right? This coalition that is ousting Rajoy is even more built of chaos then the current 'government.'

Legally no, Sánchez could stay until Summer 2020. In practical terms yes, the coalition is very unstable. I'd expect a new election either this winter (late October) or possibly next summer after the EU ones.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez acts as the virtual PM, while Rivera looks like the virtual leader of the opposition. Sánchez is not the best of oatliamentarians, but today he found inspiration against Rajoy and Rivera.

[windjammer]

Pedro Sánchez acts as the virtual PM, while Rivera looks like the virtual leader of the opposition. Sánchez is not the best of oatliamentarians, but today he found inspiration against Rajoy and Rivera.

What will be the next coalition?

[Velasco]

Likely there will be a PSOE minority government and not a coalition government. Pedro Sánchez will govern alone for some months, seeking the support of Podemos and  peripheral nationalists. The budget agreed by PP, Cs, PNV and Canarian regionalist will be in force... Unless PP makes use of its majority in the Senate and devolves the Budget total the Congress of Deputies (maybe that won't happening, because the negotiation was hard for PP). It will be very complicated, nearly impossible to sustain a government backed by only 84 Deputies for a long time. Eventully Sánchez will call elections within several months. Maybe he will try to implement some measures of "cleansing" or "regeneration" before, or to implement the rejection to some controversial laws voted by the parliament and vetoed by decree of Rajoy's government.
t

[MAINEiac4434]

ciudadanos are over. they voted for rajoy and against elections. their politics represent everything wrong with this world and they are typical establishment party.

Congratulations Prime Minister Sanchez.

Knew Ciudadanos were frauds from the moment the lost Osmond brother Rivera reared his head.

[parochial boy]

So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.

[Zinneke]

So who wins from this then? Obviously Sanchez, but I was thinking that Rivera most likely ends up Prime Minister by the end of the year - that doesn't seem to be the impression that a lot of people have on here.

Sanchez doesn't win from this that much. He wanted to be PM desperately but now he is walking on a tightrope and his only shot at PM is going to be his attempt to negotiate a new constitution with his seperatist "allies" in the Congress on one side and the PP in the Senate on the other. Its simply unfeasible and he will fail, even if he is saying the right things. There is a reason Rajoy did not resign and call elections : the PP want Sanchez and the PSOE to fail first.

Rivera probably has the best cards to play but he made a major mistake supporting Rajoy rather than the motion to censor him. For all the (ironic) "Catalufo" schtick he gets from populares, it is a classic example of Rivera not seeing the bigger political picture and thinking the world revolves around Catalonia. Sanchez schooled him yesterday in the debate. If it does go to elections he might be the big winner but he is still capable of making the campaign a referendum about Catalonia again, and that may only work in Catalonia.

As long as Iglesias is head of Podemos people will reference his new house and he will lose the argument. It happened again just this morning. Its a shame, because Podemos are the ones bringing up real problems in Spanish society (disposable contracts worse than almost anywhere in Europe, an unskilled generation staying and a skilled one leaving, housing bubbles forming up again and the incestuous relationship between the banks and the politicians looking for funds for their new "projects") rather than nationalist pissing contests.

I guess the big winner is Feijoo, the Galician minister who will prbably next PP leader. PP seem to be immune to corruption scandals and he will likely come across as the most mature next to Rivera, Sanchez and Iglesias. And the Catalan nationalists who will recuperate their Govern powers at the very least. Then I fear there will be another Vox surge.


EDIT : and the obvious big winner, the PNV and the Basque COuntry as a whole : http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20180601/443973609409/mocion-censura-pnv-aitor-esteban.html

[Former President tack50]

It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Some somewhat interesting sideffects:

Mariano Rajoy becomes the 3rd shortest lived PM after the 2 UCD prime minsters (Adolfo Suárez, Leopoldo Calvo Sotelo).

Similarly, Sánchez becomes the 1st PM to get there via no confidence vote (duh) and the 2nd "unelected" PM (after Calvo Sotelo).

Sánchez being elected also means that (at least for now) there will still be a large EU country with a left of center government. Had the vote failed, the largest EU country with a left of center government would have been Portugal (10.3 million).

If using US-style generations, Pedro Sánchez would be the first Gen X Prime minister (born 1972).

[Diouf]

It's official now, Pedro Sánchez is PM-elect. Final result of the no confidence vote:

Yes: 180 (PSOE, Podemos, ERC, PDECat, PNV, Compromís, EH Bildu, NCa)
No: 169 (PP, Cs, UPN, Foro Asturias)
Abstentions: 1 (CC)

Is that roll call procedure only for special occasions like this, or does parliament really not have electronic voting?