Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[DavidB.]

28% turnout in notorious low-turnout municipality Tilburg (dunno what time, I assume 12 or 13), 23.8% same time in 2012.

[DavidB.]

Amsterdam 25.8% at 1 PM, 14.1% in 2012. WOW.

[Dutch Conservative]

In Wijk bij Duurstede (prov. Utrecht) the turnout was 28,27% at noon. In 2012: 23,18%, 2010: 24,04%. Looks like a significant increase.

[Polkergeist]

Does the Dutch exit poll have a good history of accuracy?

I read it has a huge sample size, 38,000.

Is it face to face or sample ballot?

[SunSt0rm]

Amsterdam 25.8% at 1 PM, 14.1% in 2012. WOW.

Wow, turnout in the cities is HUGE. This could benefit GL & D66

[SunSt0rm]

Does the Dutch exit poll have a good history of accuracy?

I read it has a huge sample size, 38,000.

Is it face to face or sample ballot?

Quite good, it may underestimate the PVV a bit.

[Dutch Conservative]

Here is some information about the exit poll done by Ipsos.

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/uploads/documenten/De_exitpoll_update_ENG_v1.0.pdf

It was quite accurate in the past, tends to underestimate the right a bit I think.

[Beezer]

One last attempt at a gift to the PVV by Erdogan?

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout 13:45 33% according to Ipsos, in 2012 it was only 27%

[DavidB.]

The Netherlands, 2017.

[Polkergeist]

Here is some information about the exit poll done by Ipsos.

http://www.ipsos-nederland.nl/uploads/documenten/De_exitpoll_update_ENG_v1.0.pdf

It was quite accurate in the past, tends to underestimate the right a bit I think.

Thank you!

[SunSt0rm]

Turnout in Eindhoven at 27.16%, in 2010 it was 25.68%. Maybe, the south is not turning up like the rest of the country?

[SunSt0rm]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

Update of the most 'average' town, its still too early as most votes still have to be casted and different voters turn out at different times

VVD: 23,4%
D66: 13,8%
CDA: 13,0%
PVV: 11,9%
SP: 9,9%
PvdA: 8,8%
GroenLinks: 6,1%
50Plus: 4,4%
Christenunie: 3,3%
Partij voor de Dieren: 1,9%
Forum voor Democratie: 1,7%
DENK: 1,1%
Piratenpartij: 0,6%
SGP: 0,3%

[DavidB.]

FWIW:

The AD asked people in Heemskerk to also cast a ballot for them. The VVD currently is at 26% there. Heemskerk can be considered the bellwether of the Netherlands. But you can still vote until 21:00 so it probably isn't worth anything.

This was based on 154 votes or so. I'd... be very cautious in drawing any conclusions (of course, so are you), and think it is irresponsible for AD to be spreading potential fake news like this. Exit polls should also not be published before polls close.

[Tender Branson]

The Netherlands, 2017.

Disgusting.

Where is this ? Some election precinct in a bigger city ?

[SunSt0rm]

The Netherlands, 2017.

Disgusting.

Where is this ? Some election precinct in a bigger city ?

Absolutely. Amsterdam east, which is multiculti neighbor

[Zinneke]

Prediction
(1 point):
Largest party: VVD
Largest in Amsterdam: GroenLinks
Largest in Utrecht (city): GroenLinks
Largest in Rotterdam: PVV
Largest in Den Haag: VVD
(In good belgian fashion I'll include the peripherals as a way to distance myself from the Randstad bubble )
Largest in Eindhoven: D66
Largest in Groningen : D66/SP
Largest in Nijmegen : SP
Largest in Maastricht : PVV, but win for the aggregated SP/GL.
Largest in Parkstad Limburg : PVV

(2 points):
Largest in Limburg: PVV
Largest in Zuid-Holland: VVD
Largest in Noord-Holland: VVD
Largest in Flevoland: PVV
Largest in Zeeland:CDA
Largest in Overijssel:CDA
Largest in Friesland: CDA
Largest in Groningen: SP
Largest in Drenthe: CDA
Largest in Noord-Brabant:CDA
Largest in Utrecht (province): VVD
Largest in Gelderland: VVD

(3 points):
PVV over or under 15.5% (2010 result)? Over
Predict the order of the following parties correctly: CDA, D66, GL? CDA-GL-D66
PVV over or under 30% in the municipality of Nissewaard? Assuming this is a white flight suburb of ROtterdam, over.
Best VVD municipality? no idea
Best CDA municipality? probably somewhere in the Bible Belt that historically votes for them in GEs over CU SGP
Best PVV municipality? Almere
Best GL municipality? Utrecht I guess
Best D66 municipality? Wageningen
PvdA over or under 16% in Amsterdam? Over
PVV over or under 24% in Rotterdam? Over
PvdA over or under 10% in The Hague? Over
Predict the order of the following parties in The Hague correctly: VVD, D66, PVV. VVD-PVV-D66
PVV over or under 25% in Limburg? Over
Margin between VVD and PVV in Flevoland smaller or larger than 2 points? Larger
DENK over or under 7% in The Hague? Under

(4 points)
Best FvD municipality? somewhere in North Amsterdam or Flevoland  
Best DENK municipality? Amsterdam
Best VNL municipality? Scheveningen/Den Haag
Which of DENK, FvD, PP and VNL get in? FvD, Denk and PP due to Ancilla.

The Netherlands, 2017.

Disgusting.

Where is this ? Some election precinct in a bigger city ?

What's disgusting? The mosque or the Turkish flag?

Religious buildings are used for electoral booths all the time.

[DavidB.]

Disgusting.

Where is this ? Some election precinct in a bigger city ?

Diyanet mosque ("intercultural center") in multicultural Amsterdam East. It also included Turkish nationalist propaganda, and there was Turkish radio in the background. The radio has now been switched off and the propaganda has gone, but I think the flag may still be there.

I don't mind voting in mosques or churches but I do mind the Turkish flag being there.

[Tender Branson]

What's disgusting?

The whole setup there is disgusting.

The room, the veiled scary-looking being, the Turkish flag ...

[DavidB.]

And apparently people in Nijmegen vote under a portrait of the late leader of the Grey Wolves.

[Zinneke]

What's disgusting?

The whole setup there is disgusting.

The room, the veiled scary-looking being, the Turkish flag ...

Who is veiled?

[DavidB.]

Who is veiled?

Haha, at first glance it looked like a veil to me too, but of course it isn't one.

[Tender Branson]

To me, it seems postal voting sometimes really is the better option ...

I'd hate the idea of voting in person in such precincts like the the two shown above ...

[DavidB.]

Ipsos: national turnout 33% at 2:30 PM, 27% in 2012. If this pattern holds, it would mean that turnout will be over 80%. Turnout is over 40% in Utrecht.

[Tender Branson]

I have looked at the latest Rotterdam figures again.

It slowed down a bit over the past hours, but there's still about 22.000 votes being added each hour. The slow-down was expected of course.

I now expect a turnout there between 330.000-340.000 votes.

73.5-75.0% turnout.

Up from 62.5% in 2012.