Washington state megathread

[Meeker]

Why isn't Tim Eyman running for office in his own right instead of continually hiding behind his initiatives?  This would be the perfect year for him to do that. 

He has no actual interest in public policy. This is simply how he makes his living.

[Alcon]

Eyman has also pissed off nearly every political group in the state, and not so long ago.  Firefighters and municipal employees are not good enemies to make and he did that last year.  It won't be forgotten.  I think GOP leaners with ties to municipal service unions are a much bigger group than swing voters who are Eyman devotees (or even know who the guy is.)

[Meeker]

Craig Pridemore managed to raise only $74,000 in the last quarter and has $50,000 on hand. In related news, Denny Heck will be the Democratic candidate in WA-03.

[bgwah]

Craig Pridemore managed to raise only $74,000 in the last quarter and has $50,000 on hand. In related news, Denny Heck will be the Democratic candidate in WA-03.

I like Pridemore, but he doesn't really seem like a candidate who could win WA-3. I'm not quite sure what appeal Heck would have, though. From what I remember, he was a Vancouver area legislator back in the day, but has been in Olympia for quite some time now. Perhaps having spent a lot of time in the district's two largest population bases will benefit him.

I will say (again) that I think places like Cowlitz County tend to prefer establishment Democrats like Heck to Pridemore types, though.

I really have no idea what's going on on the Republican side, though. Castillo seems to be giving Herrera a run for her money, last I read. And the possiblity of our top two primary giving us a strange general election always lingers.

In WA-8 news, DelBene has actually raised a lot of money (more than Reichert, even). Interesting, but I doubt it will make much of a difference.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Heck seems to have outraised the entire field combined. Some of it's self-funding, but that's still pretty impressive.

[Meeker]

Heck seems to have outraised the entire field combined. Some of it's self-funding, but that's still pretty impressive.

With the entire Washington State Democratic establishment behind him I'd be kind of surprised if he hadn't raised that kind of money.

[CultureKing]

Heck seems to have outraised the entire field combined. Some of it's self-funding, but that's still pretty impressive.

With the entire Washington State Democratic establishment behind him I'd be kind of surprised if he hadn't raised that kind of money.

I visited their campaign offices a while ago and they were humming, with everything geared towards fund raising. Has he released 1st quarter fund raising numbers yet?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Heck seems to have outraised the entire field combined. Some of it's self-funding, but that's still pretty impressive.

With the entire Washington State Democratic establishment behind him I'd be kind of surprised if he hadn't raised that kind of money.

I visited their campaign offices a while ago and they were humming, with everything geared towards fund raising. Has he released 1st quarter fund raising numbers yet?

FEC says Heck raised $204k, loaned himself $150k, and has $532k on hand.

[Meeker]

What's with this huge Washington thread?  Is there something that's so interesting about Washington politics that it deserves its own thread?

Abnormally large amount of posters from the state.

[Meeker]

State Legislature Race Ratings!

State Senate

Safe Dem
Paull Shin (21st District)
Rosa Franklin (29th District)
Darlene Fairley (32nd District)
OPEN SEAT (34th District)
Tim Sheldon (35th District)
Jeanne Kohl-Welles (36th District)
Adam Kline (37th District)
Jean Berkey (38th District)
Ed Murray (43rd District)
Ken Jacobsen (46th District)**

Likely Dem
Karen Keiser (33rd District)

Lean Dem
Chris Marr (6th District)
Derek Kilmer (26th District)
Tracey Eide (30th District)
Randy Gordon (41st District)*
Steve Hobbs (44th District)

Toss-up
Eric Oemig (45th District)
Claudia Kauffman (47th District)
Rodney Tom (48th District)

Lean GOP

Likely GOP
Pam Roach (31st District)
OPEN SEAT (42nd District)

Safe GOP
Bob Morton (7th District)
Jerome Delvin (8th District)
Janéa Holmquist (13th District)
Jim Honeyford (15th District)

* = Special election
** = Legitimate primary challenge

Some of these are a little tough. Basically everyone in the "Lean Dems" section should be vulnerable this year. The problem is that the people the GOP is running in these seats are either a) bad candidates, b) candidates with no money or c) both. Compounding the GOP's problem is that those same Democratic incumbents have on the most part ungodly amounts of money already in the bank (Kilmer has something like $150,000 CoH) and they haven't even begun to raise money this year (they legally couldn't until session ended on Tuesday). So we'll need to re-examine all these races come late June/early July to get a better idea as to how legitimate the GOP challenges are.

On the Republican side of things Pam Roach is only competitive because she's Pam Roach, but if she couldn't be taken out in 2006 I don't see how she loses this year. Dale Brandland is retiring in the 42nd but State Rep. Doug Ericksen basically has the race already wrapped up.

In short: I'd predict GOP gains in the 3-5 range at this point. But ask me again in two months.


EDIT: Forgot that McDermott is running for King County Council; updated to reflect that. Still Safe Dem.

[Meeker]

State House

Safe Dem
OPEN SEAT (3rd District, Position 1)
Timm Ormsby (3rd District, Position 2)
Zach Hudgins (11th District, Position 1)
Bob Hasegawa (11th District, Position 2)
Dean Takko (19th District, Position 1)
Brian Blake (19th District, Position 2)
Mary Helen Roberts (21st District, Position 1)
OPEN SEAT (22nd District, Position 1)
Sam Hunt (22nd District, Position 2)
Christine Rolfes (23rd District, Position 2)
Kevin Van De Wege (24th District, Position 1)
OPEN SEAT (27th District, Position 1)
Jeannie Darneille (27th District, Position 2)
Steve Conway (29th District, Position 1)
Steve Kirby (29th District, Position 1)
Mark Miloscia (30th District, Position 1)
Maralyn Chase (32nd District, Position 1)
Ruth Kagi (32nd District, Position 2
Tina Orwall (33rd District, Position 1)
Dave Upthegrove (33rd District, Position 2)
Eileen Cody (34th District, Position 1)
OPEN SEAT (34th District, Postion 2)
Fred Finn (35th District, Position 2)
Reuven Carlyle (36th District, Position 1)
Mary Lou Dickerson (36th District, Position 2)
Sharon Tomiko Santos (37th District, Position 1)
Eric Pettigrew (37th District, Position 2)
John McCoy (38th District, Position 1)
Mike Sells (38th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (40th District, Position 1)
Jeff Morris (40th District, Position 2)
Judy Clibborn (41st District, Position 2)
Jamie Pedersen (43rd District, Position 1)
Frank Chopp (43rd District, Position 2)
Larry Springer (45th District, Position 2)
Scott White (46th District, Position 1)
Phyllis Kenney (46th District, Position 2)
Ross Hunter (48th District, Position 1)
Deb Eddy (48th District, Position 2)
Jim Jacks (49th District, Position 1)**
Jim Moeller (49th District, Position 2)

Likely Dem
OPEN SEAT (1st District, Position 1)
Mark Ericks (1st District, Position 2)**
Marko Liias (21st District, Position 2)
Sherry Appleton (23rd District, Position 1)
Troy Kelley (28th District, Position 1)
Kelli Linville (42nd District, Position 2)
Hans Dunshee (44th District, Position 1)
Pat Sullivan (47th District, Position 2)

Lean Dem
Deb Wallace (17th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (24th District, Position 2)
Larry Seaquist (26th District, Position 2)
Chris Hurst (31st District, Position 2)
Kathy Haigh (35th District, Position 1)
Marcie Maxwell (41st District, Position 1)

Toss-up
John Driscoll (6th District, Position 2)
Tim Probst (17th District, Position 1)
Dawn Morrell (25th District, Position 2)
Tami Green (28th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (42nd District, Position 1)
Roger Goodman (45th District, Position 1)

Lean GOP
Glenn Anderson (5th District, Position 2)
Geoff Simpson (47th District, Position 1)

Likely GOP
Jim McCune (2nd District, Position 1)
Jay Rodne (5th District, Position 1)
Jan Angel (26th District, Position 1)
Dan Kristiansen (39th District, Position 1)
Mike Hope (44th District, Position 2)

Safe GOP
Tom Campbell (2nd District, Position 2)**
Larry Crouse (4th District, Position 1)
Matt Shea (4th District, Position 2)
Kevin Parker (6th District, Position 1)
Shelly Short (7th District, Position 1)
Joel Kretz (7th District, Position 2)
Brad Klippert (8th District, Position 1)
Larry Haler (8th District, Position 2)
Susan Fagan (9th District, Position 1)
Joe Schmick (9th District, Position 2)
Norma Smith (10th District, Position 1)
Barbara Bailey (10th District, Position 2)
Cary Condotta (12th District, Position 1)
Mike Armstrong (12th District, Position 2)
Judy Warnick (13th District, Position 1)
Bill Hinkle (13th District, Position 2)
Norm Johnson (14th District, Position 1)**
Charles Ross (14th District, Position 2)
Bruce Chandler (15th District, Position 1)
David Taylor (15th District, Position 2)
Maureen Walsh (16th District, Position 1)
Terry Nealey (16th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (18th District, Position 1)
Ed Orcutt (18th District, Position 2)
Richard DeBolt (20th District, Position 1)
Gary Alexander (20th District, Position 2)
Bruce Dammeier (25th District, Position 1)
Skip Priest (30th District, Position 2)
OPEN SEAT (31st District, Position 1)
Kirk Pearson (39th District, Position 2)

** = Legitimate primary challenge

As with the Senate, there are a number of Democratic seats that should/could be competitive if the GOP manages to either find candidates or fund the candidates. Some of the Safe Dems are in districts Rossi managed to win in 2008, but if there's no Republican candidate I don't really have any choice to put them anywhere but there. Again, these will probably change significantly after the filing deadline has passed and we get a better idea of which of the challengers are serious fundraisers.

Geoff Simpson is screwed. He barely survived in 2008 and is running against the same guy again. It's an Obama/Rossi district and that fact combined with Simpson's vote on the first version of the tax package spells his demise. The fact that he beats his wife also probably reflects poorly on his character.

Meanwhile, there are actually some opportunities for the Democrats to pick up a seat or two. It's not really clear what the field looks like for the open seat in the 42nd yet (there's a Republican and a few Democrats registered with the PDC but none have raised significant amounts of money). Also there's a small chance Kelli Linville may decide to run for the State Senate herself (her seatmate, Doug Ericksen, is already in the race). That would only further complicate things for the other House seat (people may jump races) and she doesn't really have to make that decision until the filing deadline, so we're not really going to know what's going on in this district for a while. The district is an odd one and is extremely polarized (contains both Lynden and Bellingham). Gregoire managed to win it narrowly, FWIW.

In the 5th District Glenn Anderson had a surprisingly poor result in 2008 and has another legitimate challenger this time around. I think he'll hold on, but it's one to watch. He's also having a not-so-secret affair with the State Senator from the district which certainly isn't helping things.

Overall GOP gains will probably be in the 7-10 range, maybe more.

[bgwah]

Geoff Simpson is screwed. He barely survived in 2008 and is running against the same guy again. It's an Obama/Rossi district and that fact combined with Simpson's vote on the first version of the tax package spells his demise. The fact that he beats his wife also probably reflects poorly on his character.

Ehh, he won by about 5%. Not quite "barely" IMO, and didn't the wife beating stuff come out BEFORE that (and has since proven to be BS)?

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I wouldn't count on it. The most liberal parts of Bellingham are just to the south in the 40th district, and the non-Bellingham/Lynden swing-ish areas (Ferndale and what not) will probably have a big swing to the Republicans. Linville would be wise to simply keep her House seat, IMO.

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Anderson always does poorly compared to his fellow Republicans in the 5th LD. I'm not quite sure why, but he always hangs on barely. If the Democrats had bothered to run a candidate in 2006, they might have been able to take him down. But I really don't see how someone who survived in 2008 will be going down in 2010. His likely opponent this time is some VP from T-Mobile who worked on Mallahan's campaign. I suppose he might have some decent donor sources. It will be interesting, but I'm not expecting Anderson to go anywhere. The Democrats were moronic for not running anyone here in 2006.

The 5th district has had the 2nd highest growth of any LD since the last re-districting, so the border's will be changing a ton in 2012... I really don't know how, but it may change the nature of the district significantly.

[CultureKing]

Amount raised so far on GOP side of things for the 3rd district:
Herrera: $197,000
Castillo: $162,731

Castillo should not be counted out by the way. I feel like the GOP/media has simply chosen Herrera as the republican candidate...

Meanwhile Pridemore just won the endorsement of the Sierra Club (though honestly I feel like Pridemore needed to do much better on the fund-raising side of things to still be considered competitive). Though it seems like the liberals in Olympia are finally beginning to understand that Pridemore is the more liberal candidate on the dems side of things, could mean a shift...

[bgwah]

Amount raised so far on GOP side of things for the 3rd district:
Herrera: $197,000
Castillo: $162,731

Castillo should not be counted out by the way. I feel like the GOP/media has simply chosen Herrera as the republican candidate...

Meanwhile Pridemore just won the endorsement of the Sierra Club (though honestly I feel like Pridemore needed to do much better on the fund-raising side of things to still be considered competitive). Though it seems like the liberals in Olympia are finally beginning to understand that Pridemore is the more liberal candidate on the dems side of things, could mean a shift...

Castillo seems like the Tea Party's choice... could be significant in the primary.

[Meeker]

Geoff Simpson is screwed. He barely survived in 2008 and is running against the same guy again. It's an Obama/Rossi district and that fact combined with Simpson's vote on the first version of the tax package spells his demise. The fact that he beats his wife also probably reflects poorly on his character.

Ehh, he won by about 5%. Not quite "barely" IMO, and didn't the wife beating stuff come out BEFORE that (and has since proven to be BS)?

He outspent his opponent 300k to 50k in 2008; he definitely underperformed badly."Barely" may have been too strong a word, I'll agree. He may be in the Toss-up category. I still think he's more likely than not to lose though and is definitely the most vulnerable incumbent. The wife beating stuff is still floating around according to people I know in the 47th LD Dems, FWIW.

Geoff Meanwhile, there are actually some opportunities for the Democrats to pick up a seat or two. It's not really clear what the field looks like for the open seat in the 42nd yet (there's a Republican and a few Democrats registered with the PDC but none have raised significant amounts of money). Also there's a small chance Kelli Linville may decide to run for the State Senate herself (her seatmate, Doug Ericksen, is already in the race). That would only further complicate things for the other House seat (people may jump races) and she doesn't really have to make that decision until the filing deadline, so we're not really going to know what's going on in this district for a while. The district is an odd one and is extremely polarized (contains both Lynden and Bellingham). Gregoire managed to win it narrowly, FWIW.

I wouldn't count on it. The most liberal parts of Bellingham are just to the south in the 40th district, and the non-Bellingham/Lynden swing-ish areas (Ferndale and what not) will probably have a big swing to the Republicans. Linville would be wise to simply keep her House seat, IMO.

I think I'll probably move it into the Lean GOP come summer but until we see what type of candidate they get and what type of money he/she raises I'm not really comfortable saying one way or the other. In general the district is slightly more Democratic than places like the 44th and the 47th; in a normal year I'd say the Dems would even be slightly favored to pick it up.

In the 5th District Glenn Anderson had a surprisingly poor result in 2008 and has another legitimate challenger this time around. I think he'll hold on, but it's one to watch. He's also having a not-so-secret affair with the State Senator from the district which certainly isn't helping things.

Anderson always does poorly compared to his fellow Republicans in the 5th LD. I'm not quite sure why, but he always hangs on barely. If the Democrats had bothered to run a candidate in 2006, they might have been able to take him down. But I really don't see how someone who survived in 2008 will be going down in 2010. His likely opponent this time is some VP from T-Mobile who worked on Mallahan's campaign. I suppose he might have some decent donor sources. It will be interesting, but I'm not expecting Anderson to go anywhere. The Democrats were moronic for not running anyone here in 2006.

The 5th district has had the 2nd highest growth of any LD since the last re-districting, so the border's will be changing a ton in 2012... I really don't know how, but it may change the nature of the district significantly.

I mean, I put him in the "Lean Republican" category, so I think he'll hold on as well. He's easily the most endangered Republican incumbent though. A race to keep an eye on IMO.

[bgwah]

I live in both the 40th and 5th districts, and literally live like a block away from the 42nd and 45th districts, so I'm going to be unusually interested in anything you say about said districts.

To expand on what I was saying earlier, IIRC the 5th LD is going to have to have about 30,000 people cut out during the next redistricting. That is huge and could massively change the politics of the district. Maybe. I really don't know what they'll cut out though. Probably a little bit from all sides, but given how much needs to be cut out they'll need to hack off most of a city somewhere. Maple Valley, perhaps. Population growth is more stable on the Eastside, and for that reason the 45th district won't have to change too much (so it would be difficult to just throw all of Sammamish in the 45th). So yeah, I'm thinking Maple Valley and/or East Renton Highlands will be cut out. But anything could happen. There's really no historic precedent for fast-growing suburban legislative districts like there is with congressional districts.

[Meeker]

Rep. Chris Hurst (D-31st District) is going to run for re-election with the party label "Independent Democrat" and says others may do the same.

Hopefully he and any others who do this will also be "independent" of any financial support from the party committees.

[bgwah]

Rep. Chris Hurst (D-31st District) is going to run for re-election with the party label "Independent Democrat" and says others may do the same.

Hopefully he and any others who do this will also be "independent" of any financial support from the party committees.

To me, that reads "I'm a whiny little brat who wants nothing more than to get re-elected and I'm going to make it blatantly obvious!"

But I don't really care, I guess. If it works...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Rep. Chris Hurst (D-31st District) is going to run for re-election with the party label "Independent Democrat" and says others may do the same.

Hopefully he and any others who do this will also be "independent" of any financial support from the party committees.

Didn't the state Democratic party cause a stink in 2008 because candidates were listing themselves as under the "Democrat Party"?

[CultureKing]

Rep. Chris Hurst (D-31st District) is going to run for re-election with the party label "Independent Democrat" and says others may do the same.

Hopefully he and any others who do this will also be "independent" of any financial support from the party committees.

Didn't the state Democratic party cause a stink in 2008 because candidates were listing themselves as under the "Democrat Party"?

I don't remember, though I do remember that Rossi registered under the "GOP Party", idiot.

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.

[CultureKing]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.

I am not so sure, taxing the rich usually seems to prove pretty popular, and it helps that Gates seems to be one of the main proponents of the measure.

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.

I am not so sure, taxing the rich usually seems to prove pretty popular, and it helps that Gates seems to be one of the main proponents of the measure.

Gates, Sr., that is.

[CultureKing]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011656907_incometax21m.html

Eek. Just what the Republicans would need to GOTV and erase all 2006-2008 gains the Democrats made.

I am not so sure, taxing the rich usually seems to prove pretty popular, and it helps that Gates seems to be one of the main proponents of the measure.

Gates, Sr., that is.

Well, yes. But simply having the Gates name (even if it is the wrong one) should help, it basically puts out the idea of: "Hey, it's ok! Tax us richies!"

[Alcon]

Does anyone else think Democrats (or anyone) voluntarily putting "Independent" in their name is an immensely dumb decision?