Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[LabourJersey]

New ad dropped by Younkin's super PAC, hinting at a presidential run to "pursue Reagan's legacy".

Do Resign-to-Run rules apply to VA?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1659167200316407808?cxt=HHwWgIC23eXxxYY...

Supposedly this ad is "only" for Youngkin's PAC which is focusing on the November legislative elections. But it's blatantly a presidential campaign ad.

Odd timing given how he very recently said he won't be running.

It just occurred to me how Glenn Youngkin is really the only new Republican Governor or Senator from the Biden era that seems like a plausible presidential candidate. 2022 really stifled a lot of the would-be future candidates. Maybe JD Vance, but he’s a mess.

Youngkin is extremely unique among modern elected officials in that he didn't have to go thru a primary campaign. Virginia's GOP chose to have a convention instead of a primary in order to prevent Amanda Chase from being the nominee. Youngkin ran on a campaign meant to appeal to convention delegates, who were more akin to the Virginia GOP pre-Trump than the primary electorate of 2021. This meant he didn't have to become quite as vocally/verbally MAGA as others.

[LabourJersey]

We're less than two weeks away from the primaries.

Lots of very interesting races on the Democratic primary side, especially in the Senate races. Chap Petersen is facing a very strong challenger in SD-37 (Fairfax County & Falls Church) by progressive Saddam Azlan Salim.

You also have the Lionell Spurill/ Louise Lucas battle royale in the 18th district (Portsmouth/Chesapeake in the Hampton Roads), which is a super interesting fight between two very well established Black legislative leaders with extremely different political styles.

For what it's worth my Senate district has a contest (Barbara Favola and James Devita in SD40, Arlington) but it's hardly contested (Favola will win and win big).

[LabourJersey]

New ad dropped by Younkin's super PAC, hinting at a presidential run to "pursue Reagan's legacy".

Do Resign-to-Run rules apply to VA?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1659167200316407808?cxt=HHwWgIC23eXxxYY...

Supposedly this ad is "only" for Youngkin's PAC which is focusing on the November legislative elections. But it's blatantly a presidential campaign ad.

Odd timing given how he very recently said he won't be running.

It just occurred to me how Glenn Youngkin is really the only new Republican Governor or Senator from the Biden era that seems like a plausible presidential candidate. 2022 really stifled a lot of the would-be future candidates. Maybe JD Vance, but he’s a mess.

Youngkin is extremely unique among modern elected officials in that he didn't have to go thru a primary campaign. Virginia's GOP chose to have a convention instead of a primary in order to prevent Amanda Chase from being the nominee. Youngkin ran on a campaign meant to appeal to convention delegates, who were more akin to the Virginia GOP pre-Trump than the primary electorate of 2021. This meant he didn't have to become quite as vocally/verbally MAGA as others.

"Youngkin didn't have to win a primary" was massive Democratic/liberal cope.....that wound up being 100% correct and prescient.

It was far and away the smartest move the Virginia GOP has made in the past few years.

[LabourJersey]

As someone who currently lives in Arlington and has been following these races, thank you for the write-ups on these local races!

My predictions are:

Commonwealth's Attorney: Parisa by 5% (though Josh could certainly win).

County Board: JD Spain, and 1 of either Natalie Roy or Susan Cunningham.

[LabourJersey]

So for those living in Arlington; how popular (or unpopular) are the Missing Middle policies?

I was actually one of the 250+ people who spoke at Missing Middle public hearings, so here's my two cents:

Arlington has over 230,000 people and a lot of those have no idea that this policy exists. Homeowners in the (wealthier/whiter) North Arlington are very opposed to Missing Middle because they see their neighborhoods changing rapidly now that this is passed (which is probably an exaggeration).

Much of the population growth in Arlington has been among renters in the Metro corridors. The renters who are involved in local politics are almost uniformly in favor of Missing Middle. Indeed there were literally only one or two speakers under the age of 40 at the public hearing that spoke against Missing Middle--all other under-40s were in favor.

So to sum up, I would say if there was a majority referendum Missing Middle would win, but among the people who are engaged politically its very evenly divided.

[LabourJersey]

So for those living in Arlington; how popular (or unpopular) are the Missing Middle policies?

I was actually one of the 250+ people who spoke at Missing Middle public hearings, so here's my two cents:

Arlington has over 230,000 people and a lot of those have no idea that this policy exists. Homeowners in the (wealthier/whiter) North Arlington are very opposed to Missing Middle because they see their neighborhoods changing rapidly now that this is passed (which is probably an exaggeration).

Much of the population growth in Arlington has been among renters in the Metro corridors. The renters who are involved in local politics are almost uniformly in favor of Missing Middle. Indeed there were literally only one or two speakers under the age of 40 at the public hearing that spoke against Missing Middle--all other under-40s were in favor.

So to sum up, I would say if there was a majority referendum Missing Middle would win, but among the people who are engaged politically its very evenly divided.

Good analysis. Lots of "stop missing middle" signs on yards in SFH's in my neighborhood, but that doesn't mean much because those are the exact sort of people you'd expect to be against it. Even more of those signs in the far north part of the county that's basically McLean.

Somewhat related - I have a theory that there's just so much money sloshing around in NoVA that progressive politics has a lower ceiling here than in comparable jurisdictions in other metros, despite it being broadly liberal. I've only been here for six months so I know jack squat, but you can just feel the seemingly universal upper-middle-classness (or just flat out rich in places like Great Falls) especially north of 50. This is the land of two-income couples making $250k each consulting for Deloitte or McKinsey.

Possible counterpoint: Lee Carter - but Manassas is much less rich than most of NoVA, so idk.

You have a point here. Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun are three of the top 7 or 8 richest counties in the whole United States. That creates a unique type of politics here, where Trumpism is universally derided, but a real old-school left wing politics just doesn't exist because you don't have the demographics for it.

More bluntly: you don't have many people who want to burn the system down, since the majority of the active local politics people *are* the system: they work in the federal gov't, the defense industry, the consulting world, etc etc. 

[LabourJersey]

At 1:30pm, total turnout was at 12%. 7% vote by mail and early in person, 5% e-day voting up to that point.

twitter DOT com/ArlingtonVotes/status/1671211843648626688

(I can't post links yet)

Turnout is lighter than I expected (though not that much lighter).

[LabourJersey]

Cunningham and Coffey won the nomination after RCV was tabulated.

Looks like I'll be voting for Cunningham and Audrey Clement this fall.

The tabulation of the RCV was odd (really don't think that there was a need to wait until 5:30pm on a Friday to announce this).

Still surprised by the results -- I assumed that Roy and Spain would be the victor. Ultimately it was close though--just 700 votes separated Coffey and Spain in Spain's last round, for instance.

[LabourJersey]

Why is this thread so much longer than other state threads here? Is Virginia that important of a state, lol.

Virginia is a politically interesting state that's undergoing a lot of trends that are representative of where the parties are headed. It was until recently an important swing state, and even though it's definitely in the Democratic column its state-level races are still engaging and can teach both parties a lot.

[LabourJersey]

Have people factored in the high chance that we'll be in a government shutdown starting Oct 1 and a bunch of people in Fairfax and Loudoun will be furloughed?

That's a good point, though I wonder that the vast majority of people who will (rightly) blame the GOP for a government shutdown would be voting for the Democrats anyway.

If the GOP gets a lot of bad press on this a la 2013 then this would certainly hurt the GOP's candidates in the three or four competitive NOVA seats.

[LabourJersey]

I voted in person, early last week (the first day of early voting). All of the competitive races in Arlington were in the primaries, so I didn't need much time to decide who I was voting for (and in which races I was writing some other person in).

[LabourJersey]

Both chambers are Safe D with a shutdown. Russet Perry in particular is probably cheering for the shutdown.

I don't think it makes the HoD Safe D, but it takes the Senate completely off the table between the outer western D.C. suburbs swing seat and the outer southern D.C. suburbs swing seat.  HoD will be decided in downstate college towns and majority-minoriy seats that probably aren't that excited about a shutdown either way.

If Democrats win the two competitive Prince William Seats (21 and 22), wouldn't that make the Democrats favored to win the House of Delegates? My math could be wrong but my impression was those two were close to be tipping point seats.

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1724202870851903653

They're missing the ultra-conservative Patrick Henry College in Loudoun County, which definitely voted like Liberty (that said it's possible that because it's so small it doesn't have its own precinct to have this analysis)

[LabourJersey]

Interesting that Northam’s endorsement is now coveted. Spanberger herself called for his resignation (as did almost every VA Democrat):

https://twitter.com/repspanberger/status/1091529572556918785?s=46&t=-r8JGlJn...

The subsequent revelations from Fairfax and Herring made any option politically inconvenient (and made the option of all three resigning really bad optics - imagine the one black official going to jail while the other white officials just go off into the sunset due to being in racist costumes).

And then the Democrats won in 2019 and had a trifecta where Northam governed well.

Tangentially, I've always wondered whether there was some kind of weird conspiracy behind the respective relevations (i.e. I always wondered if Northam's people knew about the Herring and Fairfax baggage and released them in the wake of the scandal as a means of "mutually assured destruction," or just plain spite)

[LabourJersey]

I see Gov. Glenn Youngkin is picking up where former Gov. Jim Gilmore left off.  Good timing too:

Youngkin exploring repeal of 'hated' car tax

More than 20 years after then-Gov. Jim Gilmore failed to fully repeal the so-called "car tax," another Republican governor is preparing to take a swing at the local government levy on personal vehicles that Virginians love to hate.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin confirmed on Tuesday that he is considering proposals to do away with the local tax on personal property - which he called "the most hated tax in Virginia" - by finding new sources of revenue for local governments to replace it.

“It is despised to such a universal degree that there is nothing I hear more complaints about as I travel across the commonwealth of Virginia than the car tax,” Youngkin said in an interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

“Eliminating the car tax is a complicated and challenging endeavor,” the governor said. “I believe there is a path to eliminate it, but it requires full cooperation from Republicans and Democrats, executive branch and legislators, local leaders and state leaders in order to take the big step of permanently eliminating this most hated tax."

And for those without a subscription to the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

The personal property tax may be hated, but where are they going to make the revenue?

Any "hated" tax exists because there isn't or wasn't a viable alternative for tax revenue.