Texas 2022 megathread

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I think both McConaughey and O’Rourke would have a chance, but it’d be Lean D with a McConaughey run whereas it’d be more like Lean R in the event of Beto being the nominee.

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What’s in it for Beto? Doesn’t this set him up worse for ‘24 than simply skipping this race? I don’t really get the strategy behind this decision.

I suspect he's in it because he thinks he can win.

To be fair, there is a path to victory- it's just narrow. Beto needs a combination of several factors such as- voters not being too enraged at his gun stance thanks to finding other issues more important; ability to attract the sorts of suburban voters who'd have gone for Youngkin in VA (e.g. clearly favouring parents having a say in education); most likely casting himself as a more independent-minded candidate so as to not make it a de facto referendum on Joe Biden; campaigning among and winning back Clinton-Trump Hispanic voters; finding attacks on Abbott that hit (whether it be the power grid or any future events that happen).

The one thing Beto has in his favour is populism and the campaigning ability- he certainly wouldn't neglect South Texas Hispanic voters in the way Biden did, for example.

Unfortunately for him there's still a pretty heavy trend against him- Dem midterm, somewhat tainted image with the gun comments, state is still generally Lean R for now, and he's less of a new/trendy figure now. I don't fancy his chances. But, there is a path (though narrow), and I absolutely expect him to be trying his hardest for it.

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More info on the trans kids stuff I just posted about

I feel like this could work against him electorally like Pat McCrory's stuff did.

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I think Beto was about a decade too early here for his time. Sadly this second loss will likely end his political career; I doubt he could convince donors a third run at office is worth it.

This is his third run at office. He ran for President in 2020.