Texas 2022 megathread

[brucejoel99]

Looks like Beto walked back his comments a bit, and has now left the door open to running:

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1378110709968556037?s=21

Maybe he’s waiting til Texas gets bluer? I could see him go for governor in 2026, or try again for senate in 2024.

Yeah, that's the same vibe that I picked up here: he probably knows that TX ain't going (non-Atlas) blue as soon as 2022, so he probably feels that it'd be better to wait 'til the statewide political environment there is actually interested in electing a Democrat to something.

[Real Texan Politics]

Some minor news this thread missed, but military veteran Kurt Schwab is running for governor to primary Abbott. Though considering he doesn't even have a wikipedia page, he has almost no chance at winning.

Here's his campaign site: https://kurtschwab.com/

[S019]

NYT did a deep dive style article on the TX GOP in general with some interesting details on this race and other TX 2022 races: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/magazine/texas-republicans.html


Notable tidbits: Ken Paxton does not believe Abbott supports him, and he doesn't support him, either. Also Ag Commish Sid Miller is mulling a primary challenge to Abbott, and Dan Patrick says he does not want to challenge Abbott. Also, this isn't in the article, iirc, but has been in numerous others, Land Commish George P Bush is mulling a primary challenge to Paxton. It seems like all out civil war in the Texas GOP. 

[Roll Roons]

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/05/10/former-state-sen-don-huffines-announces-hell-challenge-texas-gov-greg-abbott-in-gop-primary/

Not sure if this has been brought up, but former Dallas County State Senator Don Huffines, who lost reelection in 2018, will challenge Abbott in the GOP primary.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/16/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-run-488536

Well well well, I guess he may be running after all??

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/16/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-run-488536

Well well well, I guess he may be running after all??

I mean, honestly, what do we have to lose?  As long as he runs as a Democrat and isn’t the equivalent of a drooling idiot on policy or a crazy conspiracy theorist like Woody Harrelson, I don’t see the harm in running him.  If he’s hopelessly unable to navigate taking issue positions, he won’t win the nomination.  

Abbot is probably winning anyway and if nothing else, you might get lucky and shake up the dynamics of the race a bit and drive up turnout in the Austin metro win or lose and the latter can only be a good thing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/16/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-run-488536

Well well well, I guess he may be running after all??

I mean, honestly, what do we have to lose?  As long as he runs as a Democrat and isn’t the equivalent of a drooling idiot on policy or a crazy conspiracy theorist like Woody Harrelson, I don’t see the harm in running him.  If he’s hopelessly unable to navigate taking issue positions, he won’t win the nomination.  

Abbot is probably winning anyway and if nothing else, you might get lucky and shake up the dynamics of the race a bit and drive up turnout in the Austin metro win or lose and the latter can only be a good thing.

The Generic ballot is plus 10 Crist, Ryan, CUNNINGHAM and McCounghey can indeed won, thanks to the stimulus or we would have been cut off if Rs kept the Senate

The issue are females, you never know how they are gonna vote they can go either way

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/16/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-run-488536

Well well well, I guess he may be running after all??

I mean, honestly, what do we have to lose?  As long as he runs as a Democrat and isn’t the equivalent of a drooling idiot on policy or a crazy conspiracy theorist like Woody Harrelson, I don’t see the harm in running him.  If he’s hopelessly unable to navigate taking issue positions, he won’t win the nomination.  

Abbot is probably winning anyway and if nothing else, you might get lucky and shake up the dynamics of the race a bit and drive up turnout in the Austin metro win or lose and the latter can only be a good thing.

The Generic ballot is plus 10 Crist, Ryan, CUNNINGHAM and McCounghey can indeed won, thanks to the stimulus or we would have been cut off if Rs kept the Senate

The issue are females, you never know how they are gonna vote they can go either way

2022 will NOT be a D+10 year, I can assure that. That said though, you are right about suburban women possibly turning out heavily for Matthew.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/16/matthew-mcconaughey-texas-governor-run-488536

Well well well, I guess he may be running after all??

I mean, honestly, what do we have to lose?  As long as he runs as a Democrat and isn’t the equivalent of a drooling idiot on policy or a crazy conspiracy theorist like Woody Harrelson, I don’t see the harm in running him.  If he’s hopelessly unable to navigate taking issue positions, he won’t win the nomination.  

Abbot is probably winning anyway and if nothing else, you might get lucky and shake up the dynamics of the race a bit and drive up turnout in the Austin metro win or lose and the latter can only be a good thing.

The Generic ballot is plus 10 Crist, Ryan, CUNNINGHAM and McCounghey can indeed won, thanks to the stimulus or we would have been cut off if Rs kept the Senate

The issue are females, you never know how they are gonna vote they can go either way

2022 will NOT be a D+10 year, I can assure that. That said though, you are right about suburban women possibly turning out heavily for Matthew.

Guess what Guilium lost and he was us six pts with a mnth left and Crist is down by 6 pts with 500 days left it's not impossible for Crist to win since Rubio backtracked on Commission

Ryan can win to, but I don't know about Cunningham but I am donating to all of them anyways anything can happen with the Commission, D's need to expand the battleground beyond the 303 blue wall to keep the H

[Terlylane]

Abbott is safe. That’s not changing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He's safe unless McCounghey runs, D's are open to not running anyone if McCounghey runs

McCounghey is +12 against Abbott, but McCounghey is waiting til 2022 not 2021
McCounghey has John Wayne appeal he won't ban concealed arms

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.yahoo.com/could-beto-back-orourke-mulling-041502831.html


Beto is back, sick of playing McCounghey rumors mulls plan to run for TX Gov instead

[Real Texan Politics]

https://news.yahoo.com/could-beto-back-orourke-mulling-041502831.html


Beto is back, sick of playing McCounghey rumors mulls plan to run for TX Gov instead

Beto needs to make up his mind. That said though I’ve got a feeling McConaughey is less likely to run if Beto decides to run, and will ultimately endorse Beto when push comes to shove. Doubt he’d do that to anyone else.

But considering Abbott’s been recently signing a lot of (seemingly) controversial bills into law, such as the abortion heartbeat bill, banning critical race theory, ending mask mandates (plus banning them for schools), it’s no surprise Beto’s considering jumping into the race again.

[GALeftist]

To be perfectly honest, I'd prefer McConaughey to Beto. This will be a difficult race, Beto's gun comments will probably weigh him down somewhat, and I don't want him to be seen as a repeat loser when Texas is bluer. On the other hand, maybe McConaughey has some sort of unique appeal which will being the race in his favor, and if he doesn't, no harm done, it's not like we've now damaged a valuable candidate in the state or presidential contender or something.

(Now that I say this, watch McConaughey win and use it as a springboard to be elected president in 2032 or something)

[GeneralMacArthur]

Beto won't win a gubernatorial race.  Save your ammo buddy.

McConaughey could at least help with turnout or sway some voters who will trust and listen to a celebrity over a career politician.  Or appeal to McConaughey fans (of which there are many).  So it's not the worst idea.  Of course he has to demonstrate that he's actually capable of being a politician and not just a flop like so many other celebrity candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, McCounghey isn't running, if he was, Beto wouldn't be gearing up, I am optimistic about 2022 anyways not a Doomer, we have to wait and see how the campaign shakes out, but Abbott been in office too long anyways

Better chance we pick up TX than FL with Crist, Val Deming's and Murphy voting for that Trump oppressive Immigration law, called Kate's Law, no wonder Crist is trailing by 10

[Chips]

Likely R.

[patzer]

I think both McConaughey and O’Rourke would have a chance, but it’d be Lean D with a McConaughey run whereas it’d be more like Lean R in the event of Beto being the nominee.

[JMT]

Possibly preparing a primary challenge to Greg Abbott?

https://twitter.com/allenwest/status/1400805572707028993?s=21

[Pink Panther]

Assuming he runs, first Prather, now this goof? Abbott should have an easy time for renomination.

[Real Texan Politics]

Assuming he runs, first Prather, now this goof? Abbott should have an easy time for renomination.

Prather won't even get close to the top 3. West may have a very slight shot but it's not a big one. He probably gets 2nd place in the primaries with Huffines in 3rd and everyone else below 1-2%.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

The far right is already supporting Don Huffines, Allen West won't get in.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So with supply issues and likely rolling blackouts because ERCOT refused to weatherize for heat, following a winter in which a minor cold snap managed to kill 150 people because ERCOT refused to weatherize for cold, do we think this will have any impact on state-level races? It sure seems like running against the power company could get allot of headway for Dems here.

[wbrocks67]

So with supply issues and likely rolling blackouts because ERCOT refused to weatherize for heat, following a winter in which a minor cold snap managed to kill 150 people because ERCOT refused to weatherize for cold, do we think this will have any impact on state-level races? It sure seems like running against the power company could get allot of headway for Dems here.

Dems really need to use these issues. Honestly, it feels like it writes itself - while people were being hurt by the winter storm and now the heat, where is Gov Abbot? Oh yeah, he's literally spending his time on Fox News culture war bills and gun/border wall stuff.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Preaching to the choir and running a campaign centering on repeating things that ring true among Democrats but are firmly not true in the eyes of swing voters is what got Democrats the 2014 gubernatorial landslide loss.
Electricity costs, I would guess, are the most effective angle TX Dems could use in this area - but I would not be massively shocked if weatherization made for a more effective direction. A lot would depend on particulars though, and knowing if this issue would be salient on Election Day 2022 is hard to tell this early. Currently I rate the race Likely R because Abbott isn't a wildly unpopular figure and this is Texas.