KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol. Kansas is Safe R, period. Kobach isn't going to win the primary. MUH TITANIUM D JOHNSON COUNTY

The front runner for the Republican Senate nomination was last seen losing to a Democrat almost identical to Barbara Bollier by 5%,  lol. I’m not delusional enough to think it is a tossup or even Lean R just yet, but it’s definitely on the periphery of the board

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Someone ran the stats on Twitter, and for all the doubters out there even if Kobach performed as badly in 2020 as he did in 2018 in the KC/urban eastern KS counties he would still win if he performed at generic R rural numbers, which oc he will with Trump on the ballot and in a federal race (he'll also likely improve compared to his 2018 performance in KC with higher GOP turnout and a federal race where people vote more partisanly). Safe R at this point in time tbh, Kobach +6 or something.

There is no reason to think Kobach would retain all of Trump’s support in rural areas

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bollier and Schumer need to get an outside group to go full Claire McCaskill on Marshall and Lindstrom

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats should make an effort to donate to Kobach.
I would donate to the f**ker just to help him win the GOP nomination.

That's quite a risk. Even though that would give Dems a small chance to win the senate seat, most liekly, another crazy guy will be elected to the senate.

Kobach is going to have the same voting record as any other “non-offensive” Republican Senator like David Perdue or Joni Ernst. There’s no real downside to him winning the primary.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats should make an effort to donate to Kobach.
I would donate to the f**ker just to help him win the GOP nomination.

That's quite a risk. Even though that would give Dems a small chance to win the senate seat, most liekly, another crazy guy will be elected to the senate.

Kobach is going to have the same voting record as any other “non-offensive” Republican Senator like David Perdue or Joni Ernst. There’s no real downside to him winning the primary.

Kobach would vote the same but would he write the same bills and amendments which the rest of the caucus will rubber-stamp?

Cruz and Cotton aren’t too much more effective at getting anything vile done relative to the typical Republican, so I don’t see why “risking” having someone like Kobach in the Senate is such a big deal.

I’d much rather have a 40% shot at a Democratic Kansas Senator and a 60% shot at a Cruz clone than a 100% shot at another Cornyn clone. It’s not even a close call

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

The more he takes away from Marshall the better

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Gary Johnson had the anti Hilary sentiment in 2016, that's why third parties didnt perform good in 2018. He will have little impact

He isn’t third party. He’s running in the GOP primary.

Bob Hamilton's announcement video, for those interested. A Plumber, not a Politician. Could resonate well with KSGOP voters!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=50&v=AwQ_oclT610&feature=emb_logo

Considering you're from KS, who do you think he will hurt the most ? Kobach ?

Kobach is better known in this area but i think his support is pretty locked in at 35-40%. I just don’t see how he gains much more. So I think Hamilton would take more from Marshall.

Also, Democrats - I would be cautious rooting too hard for Kobach. This is a presidential year for a federal election, I think it is very reasonable that Kobach still wins in November.

It’s not like there’s any real difference between how Kobach, Hamilton, or Marshall would vote anyway in DC. No downside to rooting for Kobach

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Kobach called on Marshall to condemn the GOP Chair’s actions, Marshall had a feisty response:https://twitter.com/RogerMarshallMD/status/1253774218514386951?s=20

I want Kobach to win the primary so he can lose again in the general, but man this is freaking awesome.

I'm not sure I want to take the risk nominating KKKobach and having this guy in the senate. Marshall is pretty bad as well, but not that insane. The polling is encouraging, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that at this point.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/roger-marshall/

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Pollsters like Sabato and JHK forecast understating Bullock, Harrison and Bollier's chance, just because Dems will net over 50 seats got a pleasant surprise coming in Nov. Those three are outaising their R opponents

You overestimate Bullock, Harrison, Cunningham and Bollier's chances. They are all running in red states and the only one who might win is Bullock. Remember Bredesen, Heitkamp, Donnelly, McCaskill were all leading in the polls at some point and went on to lose.

One of these is not like the other

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Buh buh but KS senate is safe R without Kobach!

It still is. Nobody cares about the reckless driving except people who were going to vote for Bollier anyway.

Having it come out before the primary is wrapped up though isn't in his favor.

This is a good point, and the news couldn’t have happened at a more opportune time for Bollier/Kodach. The primary is only six weeks away and Marshall can’t afford headlines like this when he has the field gunning for him

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So the primaries are 1 month away (August 4).

If Kobach wins the primary, would this race be a tossup?

I think so, especially with how the national environment is turning. I still think Marshall is better positioned to win this, the campaign is largely going to be fought online and on the airwaves, where he has a huge $$$ advantage from his own campaign war chest and outside PACs. Kobach still has a good chance, his best chance will be if Democrats try to wade in and throw the race to Kobach via party switching/attacking Marshall. I think that would be a mistake since Kobach still would have a shot at taking down Bollier...Kobach in the Senate would be a huge stain on Kansas' reputation.

Yeah, I don’t understand why Bollier or the DSCC haven’t tried to do the McCaskill-like “Kobach is too extreme for Kansas” thing yet. It’s not like she has a shortage of money, she has more than all the Republicans combined!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So the primaries are 1 month away (August 4).

If Kobach wins the primary, would this race be a tossup?

I think so, especially with how the national environment is turning. I still think Marshall is better positioned to win this, the campaign is largely going to be fought online and on the airwaves, where he has a huge $$$ advantage from his own campaign war chest and outside PACs. Kobach still has a good chance, his best chance will be if Democrats try to wade in and throw the race to Kobach via party switching/attacking Marshall. I think that would be a mistake since Kobach still would have a shot at taking down Bollier...Kobach in the Senate would be a huge stain on Kansas' reputation.

Yeah, I don’t understand why Bollier or the DSCC haven’t tried to do the McCaskill-like “Kobach is too extreme for Kansas” thing yet. It’s not like she has a shortage of money, she has more than all the Republicans combined!

It's still Kansas. The state hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s, which is the longest losing streak in the country for either party. Yes, Bollier would have a much better shot, but the prospect of Senator Kris Kobach would be very real.

I don’t think many Democrats would or should care about the difference in quality between a potential Senator Kobach who they have a 50-50 shot of beating. Or an almost guaranteed Senator Marshall if he wins the primary. As it is, both Kobach and Marshall are sycophants to a guy who suggested people inject themselves with bleach and decided to make an ass of himself waving a bible around at a church. The end result is the same no matter what if Bollier loses: a vote to keep McConnell majority leader

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So the primaries are 1 month away (August 4).

If Kobach wins the primary, would this race be a tossup?

I think so, especially with how the national environment is turning. I still think Marshall is better positioned to win this, the campaign is largely going to be fought online and on the airwaves, where he has a huge $$$ advantage from his own campaign war chest and outside PACs. Kobach still has a good chance, his best chance will be if Democrats try to wade in and throw the race to Kobach via party switching/attacking Marshall. I think that would be a mistake since Kobach still would have a shot at taking down Bollier...Kobach in the Senate would be a huge stain on Kansas' reputation.

Yeah, I don’t understand why Bollier or the DSCC haven’t tried to do the McCaskill-like “Kobach is too extreme for Kansas” thing yet. It’s not like she has a shortage of money, she has more than all the Republicans combined!

It's still Kansas. The state hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1930s, which is the longest losing streak in the country for either party. Yes, Bollier would have a much better shot, but the prospect of Senator Kris Kobach would be very real.

I don’t think many Democrats would or should care about the difference in quality between a potential Senator Kobach who they have a 50-50 shot of beating. Or an almost guaranteed Senator Marshall if he wins the primary. As it is, both Kobach and Marshall are sycophants to a guy who suggested people inject themselves with bleach and decided to make an ass of himself waving a bible around at a church. The end result is the same no matter what if Bollier loses: a vote to keep McConnell majority leader

Think of it this way: Marshall would probably be a generic Republican who sticks around for several terms and has a reliable voting record, but doesn't really make much of an impact, good or bad. Think Jerry Moran, Mike Crapo or Bill Cassidy.

On the other hand, Kobach is very ambitious, and would have a new platform to build his national profile, likely in advance of a Trump-esque presidential run in 2024 or 2028.

I've tried to explain this as well, the poster you are responding to seems to be under the impression that a voting record is the only thing that matters when electing a senator, something that you and I disagree with.

I’m well aware of the raised platform Kobach would get in the event he won the general election, but who cares? If Republicans are suicidal enough to nominate him for President, have at it. The dude lost Kansas by 5 points, for Christ sake.

And it’s not like having an obnoxious Republican asshole in the Senate is going to suddenly undermine the “institution” of the Senate. Take it from someone who is blessed to be represented by Ted Cruz. John Cornyn might be less showy than him, but at the end of the day, he’s just as bad as Cruz. I think it’s well clear to anyone who has paid any bit of attention that we’re well past that point in American history.

The false dilemma you’re posing here re: Kobach vs. Marshall is really as simple as “do Democrats want to run against someone they have a 50% chance of beating or someone they have a 5% chance of beating?” You don’t have to be a poker player to know which one you’d rather take if you're a Democrat

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

Are you seriously comparing a state where Democrats just won a high profile statewide race by 5% as recently as 2018 to a state where the closest a Democrat has gotten to winning since Bredesen’s last victory in 2006 was Obama’s 42% in 2008?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

People are going to continue to underestimate Bollier at their own peril...

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1280849613155643393

There's this thing called partisanship. In 2018 Bredesen outraised Blackburn in Tennessee by like 3 million dollars and lost by 10 points despite multiple polls showing a close raise or Bredesen ahead. I see a similar scenario happening here where the Democrat raises lots of money but still loses by double digits because this is still a red state and senate races are very partisan now. I could be wrong but in 2018 well funded dem incumbents in red states lost big so I doubt it.

Are you seriously comparing a state where Democrats just won a high profile statewide race by 5% as recently as 2018 to a state where the closest a Democrat has gotten to winning since Bredesen’s last victory in 2006 was Obama’s 42% in 2008?

Yeah but muh Kansas hasn’t elected a D senator since the 1930s

I’m not going to waste my time arguing with this guy. When I lurked herein 2018, he kept on trying to assert Catharine Baker and a bunch of California Republican Congressional seats were likely Republican holds because of the primary turnout. We all know how that turned out

Also, no one is even really considering this seriously on the board unless Kobach wins the primary so I don’t see why there’s a debate over it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What is everyone's current prediction as to who wins the GOP primary at this point?

I'm still thinking that Kobach narrowly pulls it off, but admit that may be colored by wishful thinking.

Marshall. As I've said time and again, the GOP isn't stupid enough to nominate Kobach again.

Never underestimate the stupidity of Republican voters. I don’t think Kobach will win the primary without the help of a Dem group coming to his aid last minute, but here’s to hoping.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Who didn't see that coming?

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1283388885129723905

Apparently it's for $850,000. Marshall is also taking heavy fire from Bob Hamilton. I dare not get my hopes up, but at least Democrats are being strategic about this.

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@RollRoons: it looks like most Democrats would rather have a 50-50 shot at the seat than to have a "non-controversial" Republican have a 95% chance of winning.

I maintain that it's very a risky bet, but I never said it couldn't ultimately pay off. I agree that the race would be a Tossup with Kobach, but a tossup means that he would also have a decent chance of winning, especially given that it's a federal race in a red state. But we'll see what happens.

I don't think Democrats see it as "risky" though, is what my point is. To many Democrats, Marshall and Kobach are the same, one is just more overt, and incompetent, about his intentions.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sunflower State has $2.8 million reserved until the primary, including this radio spot, which I'm not really a big fan of. I think it could do a lot better at promoting Kobach and trashing Marshall and Hamilton, but at least it's something.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Why are we acting like Pat Roberts’ endorsement matters? He about lost to Milton Wolf in 2014

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sunflower State is up to $4.2 million

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Peter Thiel spends $850k more on supporting Kobach and attacking Marshall. Brings the total spent by group to $1.1 million. This must be a close race if people are amping up the spending this intensely.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Peter Thiel spends $850k more on supporting Kobach and attacking Marshall. Brings the total spent by group to $1.1 million. This must be a close race if people are amping up the spending this intensely.

Can't believe he'd give anything (let alone that much) to somebody who'd actively reduce his civil rights if he could.

I’m all for him spending his money on Kobach if it helps him win

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

IF Kobach wins tonight, then this is probably the most embarrassing race for Senate Republicans since the Alabama special. These people have made it known from the get go that they didn’t want Kobach to win the primary, but here we are over a year later and he still might because they didn’t do anything to stop it in time. Talk about incompetence.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

These people didn't learn their lesson with Trump?

Trump probably wasn't going to win in 2016 if it wasn't for Putin, so that strategy made sense.

On the other hand, in this case, it's a moot point, as no matter who the Republicans nominate, they should win by about five.

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Yes, I’m sure a state that regularly elects Democrats to the governorship would NEVER vote for a Democrat for Senate against a Nazi.