KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/jonshorman/status/1290683379755753475

[Lognog]

are we going to see a winner by tonight?

[RogueBeaver]

KC Star said no, ballots have to be postmarked by Friday.

[brucejoel99]

KC Star said no, ballots have to be postmarked by Friday.

If it's not a close race, could we see a winner tonight on the basis of ballots already received & counted?

[Ferguson97]

I'm gonna predict Marshall wins by 2-3 points so my expectations aren't too high to set myself up for disappointment.

[tmthforu94]

I voted at around noon today in my heavily-Democratic precinct. There was no one in front of me, they said it has been a pretty slow day. Democrats have pushed VBM more and the only competitive race here is for DA, so to be expected.

We may not have a winner declared tonight, as it is likely going to be a razor thin margin. But we should have a pretty good idea what is going to happen.

KC Star said no, ballots have to be postmarked by Friday.

Have to be postmarked by today, have to receive them by Friday.

[SnowLabrador]

Man, I hope Kobach wins this primary.

[Greedo punched first]

Man, I hope Kobach wins this primary.

KKKobach probably wins the primary.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

These people didn't learn their lesson with Trump?

[NewYorkExpress]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

These people didn't learn their lesson with Trump?

Trump probably wasn't going to win in 2016 if it wasn't for Putin, so that strategy made sense.

On the other hand, in this case, it's a moot point, as no matter who the Republicans nominate, they should win by about five.

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

These people didn't learn their lesson with Trump?

Kobach has already lost a statewide race therefore he is a known loser. Not every race is going to turn out like 2016. Some people said 2018 was supposed to "feel" like 2016 yet Republicans still lost the House.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

These people didn't learn their lesson with Trump?

Kobach is a proven loser in a way trump was not. Not a fair comparison.

[Greedo punched first]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

These people didn't learn their lesson with Trump?

Kobach has already lost a statewide race therefore he is a known loser. Not every race is going to turn out like 2016. Some people said 2018 was supposed to "feel" like 2016 yet Republicans still lost the House.

Kobach has never lost a statewide primary.

[Oryxslayer]

I would say that this statement made by Roberts is not exactly factual. Sure, some Dems might vote for Kobach to give themselves an advantage later, but evidence contradicts this. The early vote suggests that dems are still casting dem ballots, and are in fact energized to cast said ballots.

It is easy to see what is going on when we view the statement this way. Roberts wants Marshall to win, so he is discrediting Kobach's campaign, and casting doubt on the legitimacy of his potential primary victory.

[tmthforu94]

Some may forget - Kobach lost KS-03 in '04 against Congressman Moore - it was supposed to be a competitive race but Kobach lost by double-digits. I don't put too much stock in his SoS wins as downballot races are largely low information and folks just vote straight ticket.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

IF Kobach wins tonight, then this is probably the most embarrassing race for Senate Republicans since the Alabama special. These people have made it known from the get go that they didn’t want Kobach to win the primary, but here we are over a year later and he still might because they didn’t do anything to stop it in time. Talk about incompetence.

[brucejoel99]

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Y'know, something tells me that's not true, that something being the fact that we live in the same universe which saw Alabama send a Democrat to the Senate over an alleged child molester. Given that, I really think a frankly more-Democratic state like Kansas would be a-okay sending a Democrat to the Senate over Hitler's closest & most devoted associate.

[NewYorkExpress]

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Y'know, something tells me that's not true, that something being the fact that we live in the same universe which saw Alabama send a Democrat to the Senate over an alleged child molester. Given that, I really think a frankly more-Democratic state like Kansas would be a-okay sending a Democrat to the Senate over Hitler's closest & most devoted associate.

Doug Jones was also a stronger nominee than Barbara Bollier is.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

These people didn't learn their lesson with Trump?

Trump probably wasn't going to win in 2016 if it wasn't for Putin, so that strategy made sense.

On the other hand, in this case, it's a moot point, as no matter who the Republicans nominate, they should win by about five.

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Yes, I’m sure a state that regularly elects Democrats to the governorship would NEVER vote for a Democrat for Senate against a Nazi.

[brucejoel99]

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Y'know, something tells me that's not true, that something being the fact that we live in the same universe which saw Alabama send a Democrat to the Senate over an alleged child molester. Given that, I really think a frankly more-Democratic state like Kansas would be a-okay sending a Democrat to the Senate over Hitler's closest & most devoted associate.

Doug Jones was also a stronger nominee than Barbara Bollier is.

Pretty sure that wouldn't matter. On the scale of their heinousness, I'm pretty sure Roy Moore was also a stronger nominee than the literal Joseph Goebbels could ever be, so I'm confident that Bollier would have no problem beating - & let me just make clear we all understand who we're talking about - the literal Joseph Goebbels.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1290719933333221376

These people didn't learn their lesson with Trump?

Trump probably wasn't going to win in 2016 if it wasn't for Putin, so that strategy made sense.

On the other hand, in this case, it's a moot point, as no matter who the Republicans nominate, they should win by about five.

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Yes, I’m sure a state that regularly elects Democrats to the governorship would NEVER vote for a Democrat for Senate against a Nazi. JFC, think before you post.

Kansas has elected 8 Democratic governors since 1933 and zero Democratic senators.

[here2view]

Any inferences into what early indicators we should be looking at? Kobach did best in northwest and southwest Kansas in 2018 but those areas are also part of Marshall's district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This isn't a Governor's race, it's a Senate race. Therefore, Republicans could literally nominate Joseph Goebbels and still win by 2-3 points.

Y'know, something tells me that's not true, that something being the fact that we live in the same universe which saw Alabama send a Democrat to the Senate over an alleged child molester. Given that, I really think a frankly more-Democratic state like Kansas would be a-okay sending a Democrat to the Senate over Hitler's closest & most devoted associate.

Doug Jones was also a stronger nominee than Barbara Bollier is.

Actually, I’d argue Bollier is a stronger candidate than Jones was in a number of ways.

[Greedo punched first]

Isn't Kansas far more likely to vote Democratic than Alabama?