KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Frenchrepublican]

The Marshall plan is on the way.

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1214640977824145408?s=20

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is Trump will endorse Marshall. I don't think Kobach would lose the general election, but that's not a risk the GOP is willing to take.

[MT Treasurer]

MT Treasurer seems very pessimistic about Kansas, don’t know why though

I think Marshall would win (not by a landslide though), but I certainly don’t buy the "Titanium R KS" narrative.

1. Kobach is a serious contender for the nomination and probably even a slight favorite. He’s as close to a Kansan version of Roy Moore as you could realistically get.
2. This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country.
3. This particular seat was already competitive with an uncontroversial Republican incumbent in a Republican wave year, and KS has only gotten less Republican since then. 
4. The state is pretty clearly trending Democratic, and Trump doing significantly worse in 2020 than in 2016 will only help Bollier. It’s much easier to overcome a 10-point deficit at the top of the ticket than it is to overcome a 20-point deficit.
5. Bollier is basically the embodiment of the Democrat who has exactly the right profile to win statewide. She fits her state like a glove and has run a pretty good campaign so far.
6. Red states are generally more open to sending candidates from the other party to the Senate than blue states.
7. Even if Marshall wins the nomination, he’ll probably have to move to the right to beat Kobach in the primary, which will hurt him in a general election.

TL;DR: This is not the kind of race Republicans can take for granted.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

MT Treasurer seems very pessimistic about Kansas, don’t know why though

I think Marshall would win (not by a landslide though), but I certainly don’t buy the "Titanium R KS" narrative.

1. Kobach is a serious contender for the nomination and probably even a slight favorite. He’s as close to a Kansan version of Roy Moore as you could realistically get.
2. This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country.
3. This particular seat was already competitive with an uncontroversial Republican incumbent in a Republican wave year, and KS has only gotten less Republican since then. 
4. The state is pretty clearly trending Democratic, and Trump doing significantly worse in 2020 than in 2016 will only help Bollier. It’s much easier to overcome a 10-point deficit at the top of the ticket than it is to overcome a 20-point deficit.
5. Bollier is basically the embodiment of the Democrat who has exactly the right profile to win statewide. She fits her state like a glove and has run a pretty good campaign so far.
6. Red states are generally more open to sending candidates from the other party to the Senate than blue states.
7. Even if Marshall wins the nomination, he’ll probably have to move to the right to beat Kobach in the primary, which will hurt him in a general election.

TL;DR: This is not the kind of race Republicans can take for granted.

1. Yes.

2. LOL wew lad. I can't wait for the 2020 WV and MT D Presidential flips and vice versa Massachusetts, Vermont, and Maryland R Presidential flips.

3. Uhh....Pat Roberts was pretty controversial, though for other reasons, like not really living in Kansas. Also, Greg Orman was vastly overhyped by the media and an actual independent, and still lost regardless. Bolliers best case is something like what he got.

4.

Romney 2012 Margin: R+21.61

Trump 2016 Margin: R+20.42

But sure, kAnSaS wIlL bE sInGlE dIgItS

5. The campaign hasn't even begun, and you have absolutely 0 evidence backing that up. Kansas has never elected a Senator like her and has no Congressmen like her. Her demographic profile is fine, but it really will not matter either way.

6. Kansas isn't West Virginia, and it isn't Alaska either.

7. Yes, because being a conservative in Kansas is an election loser lol

[Frenchrepublican]

MT Treasurer seems very pessimistic about Kansas, don’t know why though

I think Marshall would win (not by a landslide though), but I certainly don’t buy the "Titanium R KS" narrative.

1. Kobach is a serious contender for the nomination and probably even a slight favorite. He’s as close to a Kansan version of Roy Moore as you could realistically get.
2. This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country.
3. This particular seat was already competitive with an uncontroversial Republican incumbent in a Republican wave year, and KS has only gotten less Republican since then.  
4. The state is pretty clearly trending Democratic, and Trump doing significantly worse in 2020 than in 2016 will only help Bollier. It’s much easier to overcome a 10-point deficit at the top of the ticket than it is to overcome a 20-point deficit.
5. Bollier is basically the embodiment of the Democrat who has exactly the right profile to win statewide. She fits her state like a glove and has run a pretty good campaign so far.
6. Red states are generally more open to sending candidates from the other party to the Senate than blue states.
7. Even if Marshall wins the nomination, he’ll probably have to move to the right to beat Kobach in the primary, which will hurt him in a general election.

TL;DR: This is not the kind of race Republicans can take for granted.

1. I agree, even if he is not (at least) a pedo
2. So by your own standard Cassidy will lose in LA ?
3. Roberts is unpopular because he has spent his life in DC and doesn't live in KS anymore  
4. Trump won KS by 20 points in 2016, which is not far worse than Romney. Why do you think he will win it by only 10 points this year ? Kansas  is not Johnson County and you should stop acting like if that was the case.
5. A liberal suburban women will attract conservative working class voters in Wichita ? Or rural pro guns voters. LOL. She is basically a McCaskill clone.
6. That's unfortunately true, but Kansas is less prone to do so than WV or MT
7. Because KS is not a conservative state anymore ?

[Pericles]

Even without Pompeo, I'm kind of skeptical Kobach can actually win the primary given he's a proven loser.

[Pollster]

The similarities between Kobach and Moore essentially end at their toxicity in a general election. Kobach is toxic due to policy positions and a political style that repel anybody who isn't in agreement with his worldview, but are magnetic to those who do. Moore has those positions and style but his toxicity obviously runs deeper and is repelling even to many who would otherwise be inclined to support him.

He remains popular among the base (the short-lived reports of him being considered as Sessions' replacement certainly helped) and while his stock is damaged from his awful 2018 run, losing a gubernatorial election in Kansas after eight years of unpopular Republican leadership is a lot different that losing a U.S. Senate election in Alabama to replace a beloved Republican. Kobach will be tough to beat in a GOP primary.

[Ljube]

I think the only hope for Republicans here is for Pompeo to change his mind.

With KS gone, CO almost certainly gone and AZ possibly gone, the Republicans may end up with just 51 senators.

[Brittain33]

I think the only hope for Republicans here is for Pompeo to change his mind.

With KS gone, CO almost certainly gone and AZ possibly gone, the Republicans may end up with just 51 senators.

Please, I would love Kobach to be a loser but this race is Lean R at best for Democrats, and probably Likely R.

[Roll Roons]

IE changed their rating from Safe to Lean R, as they think Kobach is the primary frontrunner. https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/kansas-senate-pompeo-decision-makes-seat-more-vulnerable

[MT Treasurer]

2. So by your own standard Cassidy will lose in LA ?
3. Roberts is unpopular because he has spent his life in DC and doesn't live in KS anymore  
4. Trump won KS by 20 points in 2016, which is not far worse than Romney. Why do you think he will win it by only 10 points this year ? Kansas  is not Johnson County and you should stop acting like if that was the case.
5. A liberal suburban women will attract conservative working class voters in Wichita ? Or rural pro guns voters. LOL. She is basically a McCaskill clone.
6. That's unfortunately true, but Kansas is less prone to do so than WV or MT
7. Because KS is not a conservative state anymore ?

2. No. He’s an uncontroversial Republican incumbent in the Deep South in a state where the Democratic bench has been decimated. Hardly comparable to Kansas.
3. Cool, do you think any of this would have mattered if Pat Roberts had been a Democratic incumbent up for reelection in a Clinton +20 state in 2018?
4. The state is more suburban than you would expect. Johnson County (where Bollier happens to be from) contains more than 20% of the state's population, and it’s only growing (for a more detailed forecast: https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2016/02/03/kansas-population-johnson-county-wichita-state.html). But you’re right, other counties in the state are trending Democratic as well, while the Republican counties are pretty much maxed out for the GOP and losing population. There’s no way Trump wins KS by 20% in 2020.
5. She’s not running as a liberal woman, she’s running as a Republican-turned-bipartisan. The former doesn’t sell well in KS, the latter sure does, especially given the alternative.
6. Probably true, but that’s not saying much, especially in the case of MT.
7. It is, but it’s rarely sent Republican fire-breathers or hardcore conservatives to the Senate (I guess Brownback counts, but he was far less controversial as Senator than governor). Sheila Frahm and Nancy Kassebaum hardly qualify as Republicans these days.

Either way, the idea that this race is "Safe" R if states like IA are rated Lean R at worst is nonsense. Nathan Gonzales just moved the race from Solid R to Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol. Kansas is Safe R, period. Kobach isn't going to win the primary. MUH TITANIUM D JOHNSON COUNTY

Why do you keep saying this, KS isn't safe R

[Frenchrepublican]

Lol. Kansas is Safe R, period. Kobach isn't going to win the primary. MUH TITANIUM D JOHNSON COUNTY

Yeah, without Kobach it's Safe R

[Frenchrepublican]

I think the only hope for Republicans here is for Pompeo to change his mind.

With KS gone, CO almost certainly gone and AZ possibly gone, the Republicans may end up with just 51 senators.

Sure, because you say it it must be true

[Frenchrepublican]

IE changed their rating from Safe to Lean R, as they think Kobach is the primary frontrunner. https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/kansas-senate-pompeo-decision-makes-seat-more-vulnerable

That's really stupid from him, even if unsurprising.

In 2018 Kobach won the primary with 40% of the vote (despite having the Trump endorsement), this time he is now a proven loser as he lost the general election, which will hurt him in the eyes of some primary voters and Trump is unlikely to endorse him again, actually Trump will likely be pressured to endorse one of his establisment opponents, so the idea that he will necessarily win the primary should be looked at with some scepticism.

[Frenchrepublican]

2. So by your own standard Cassidy will lose in LA ?
3. Roberts is unpopular because he has spent his life in DC and doesn't live in KS anymore  
4. Trump won KS by 20 points in 2016, which is not far worse than Romney. Why do you think he will win it by only 10 points this year ? Kansas  is not Johnson County and you should stop acting like if that was the case.
5. A liberal suburban women will attract conservative working class voters in Wichita ? Or rural pro guns voters. LOL. She is basically a McCaskill clone.
6. That's unfortunately true, but Kansas is less prone to do so than WV or MT
7. Because KS is not a conservative state anymore ?

2. No. He’s an uncontroversial Republican incumbent in the Deep South in a state where the Democratic bench has been decimated. Hardly comparable to Kansas.
3. Cool, do you think any of this would have mattered if Pat Roberts had been a Democratic incumbent up for reelection in a Clinton +20 state in 2018?
4. The state is more suburban than you would expect. Johnson County (where Bollier happens to be from) contains more than 20% of the state's population, and it’s only growing (for a more detailed forecast: https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2016/02/03/kansas-population-johnson-county-wichita-state.html). But you’re right, other counties in the state are trending Democratic as well, while the Republican counties are pretty much maxed out for the GOP and losing population. There’s no way Trump wins KS by 20% in 2020.
5. She’s not running as a liberal woman, she’s running as a Republican-turned-bipartisan. The former doesn’t sell well in KS, the latter sure does, especially given the alternative.
6. Probably true, but that’s not saying much, especially in the case of MT.
7. It is, but it’s rarely sent Republican fire-breathers or hardcore conservatives to the Senate (I guess Brownback counts, but he was far less controversial as Senator than governor). Sheila Frahm and Nancy Kassebaum hardly qualify as Republicans these days.

Either way, the idea that this race is "Safe" R if states like IA are rated Lean R at worst is nonsense. Nathan Gonzales just moved the race from Solid R to Lean R.

2. Well, the reason why I talked about LA is that you mentioned the 2018 KS-GOV results as the proof that republicans would lose Kansas : ''This state elected a Democratic governor in 2018 and it wasn’t even close. Yes, KS has elected Democratic governors before, but defying the partisan lean of your state in 2018 matters a lot more than it did in 2002, especially when your victory is fueled by the same larger suburban trends we observed all over the country. '' So yeah, by your standard the fact that a democrat won the LA-GOV race last year with the massive support of suburban voters would mean that the LA-Sen race is going to flip, see why it's stupid to compare Gov and Sen races ?

3. What's your point here ? Sure, democrats usually don't care about where their senator live and Roberts would have won easily, but that's not the question here.

4. Yeah, Johnson County is growing, but like you explained the county represents only 20% of the state population, so stop acting like if Johnson County was the equivalent of Cook County for Illinois

5. Yeah, the Charlie Crist playbook, ''the GOP was great Under W but now with Trump they're just nazis.''
Yeah, this kind of strategy will work among Bush/Obama or Romney/Clinton soccer moms, but once again these voters are not enough to win KS in a federal race.

6. The last time they sent a D Senator it was in 1932, so yeah this element should be noted

7. That has nothing to do with how we should rate this race, TN was also once know for electing moderate republicans to the Senate, that's not the case today but TN is still Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mitch McConnell needs to go as Majority Leader,  his wife Elaine Chao worked for Bush W and for Trump. Its Quid Pro Quo

[Sir Mohamed]

Mitch McConnell needs to go as Majority Leader,  his wife Elaine Chao worked for Bush W and for Trump. Its Quid Pro Quo

This is not the 1st reason McConnell needs to go. He needs to go for obstructing legislation and Obama's judical nominees. He has turned the once respected institution of the senate into a partisan circus and legislative graveyard. As of now, the senate GOP is a parlamentary arm of the "MAGA movement".

[wbrocks67]

Bollier raised $1.1 million in... Kansas. Looks like she has a great shot.

[Cape Verde]

If it was Kobach-Marshall duel in a GOP primary, Kobach would lose. But Kansas' GOP primary doesn't have a runoff. Kobach can win GOP primary with a 35% bloc of radical GOP voters if Marshall has to share moderate, non-radical votes with Wagle and Lindstrom.

[SnowLabrador]

If it was Kobach-Marshall duel in a GOP primary, Kobach would lose. But Kansas' GOP primary doesn't have a runoff. Kobach can win GOP primary with a 35% bloc of radical GOP voters if Marshall has to share moderate, non-radical votes with Wagle and Lindstrom.

This is important to note. The more people are in the primary, the better Kobach's chances.

[Frenchrepublican]

If it was Kobach-Marshall duel in a GOP primary, Kobach would lose. But Kansas' GOP primary doesn't have a runoff. Kobach can win GOP primary with a 35% bloc of radical GOP voters if Marshall has to share moderate, non-radical votes with Wagle and Lindstrom.

Yeah, that will be the main challenge for the GOP, they need to push out Wagle and Trump must endorse Marshall in order to help him consolidate the anti Kobach conservative vote.

[Sir Mohamed]

Bollier raised $1.1 million in... Kansas. Looks like she has a great shot.

This isn't much of an indicator. McGrath also raised a ton of money in KY, yet I'm sure she doesn't stand a chance against the old turtle. KS will be more competitive, but this is still a likely R race.

[Frenchrepublican]

Bollier raised $1.1 million in... Kansas. Looks like she has a great shot.

This isn't much of an indicator. McGrath also raised a ton of money in KY, yet I'm sure she doesn't stand a chance against the old turtle. KS will be more competitive, but this is still a likely R race.

You have also to keep in mind that raising $ 1.1M in the Trump Era is not that impressive, you have some House members / House candidates who raised as much money or more

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GreenfIeld, McGrath and Kelly have been raising tons of money