Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Brittain33]

Fox News, Oct. 6-8, 1003 RV (prior poll Sep. 15-17)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+4)

Do you think President Trump should be impeached and removed from office? (change from July)

Yes 51 (+9)
No 43 (-7)

What do you think is more important to Donald Trump?

Doing what's best for himself 55
Doing what's best for the country 39

I really wonder how much longer the Murdochs will tolerate the independence of Fox News Polls. Those polls are definitely unpatriotic and hate America.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump's key to victory last time was winning with people who disapproved of both him and Clinton. The disapprove and pro-impeachment numbers are almost exactly the same in a lot of these polls. I don't think he's going to be able to do that this time. If you think he should be impeached you're not going to vote for him.

If I were in the rank and file of the GOP I would be screaming right now to get Trump off of primary ballots in as many states as possible. Or take whatever means necessary to prevent his nomination.

There will be no Halloween miracle. The damage is done.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, Oct. 3-8, 1123 adults including 926 RV (2-week change)

Adults:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 43

Support impeachment of Trump?

Support 49
Oppose 47

Support removal of Trump?

Support 48
Oppose 48


RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 41

Definitely vote for Trump 39
Definitely vote against him 52

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 45

Support impeachment of Trump?

Yes 49
No 48

Support removal of Trump?

Support 47
Oppose 49

[GeorgiaModerate]

GQR Research (D), Sep. 18-24, 2248 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

Generic D 51 (-1), Trump 41 (-1)

GCB: D 48 (-1), R 40 (-1)

[BlueSwan]

Marist, Oct. 3-8, 1123 adults including 926 RV (2-week change)

Adults:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 43

Support impeachment of Trump?

Support 49
Oppose 47

Support removal of Trump?

Support 48
Oppose 48


RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 41

Definitely vote for Trump 39
Definitely vote against him 52

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 45

Support impeachment of Trump?

Yes 49
No 48

Support removal of Trump?

Support 47
Oppose 49

Interesting that definitely vote against Trump is higher than his disapprovals. So there are people who approve of Trump who are definitely voting against him....

[pbrower2a]

Whoops? I found out that the Civiqs poll is partially on line, so I need to go back to the old paradigm of not mixing telephone (cell OK) and on-line polling. The heavily-on-line polls of Morning Consult and the new one by Civiqs may be more relevant and even more reliable. Thus phone-only polls go this way:

North Carolina: PPP, Oct. 4-6, 963 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 51

Impeach Trump?

Support 48
Oppose 48

 

It changes nothing.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1181956473380847616

Generic D 52
Trump 42

Trump favorability: 45.55 (-10)
Trump approval: 44/51 (-7)
Impeachment: 49/44 (+5)

This comes from before the Trump rally in Minneapolis... I wonder if we will get to see how convincing that was in another poll. PPP tends to have a statistical favor for Republicans.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[BlueSwan]

Forget approvals, somebody please tell me how 35% of minnesotas could possibly have a VERY favourable opinion of Donald Trump. I mean the guy is a complete a**clown whether you like his politics or not. Amazing, really.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Interesting that definitely vote against Trump is higher than his disapprovals. So there are people who approve of Trump who are definitely voting against him....

I can easily believe there are people who approve of the job he's done and are unwilling to vote for him because of his lack of basic humanity.

[pbrower2a]

Forget approvals, somebody please tell me how 35% of minnesotas could possibly have a VERY favourable opinion of Donald Trump. I mean the guy is a complete a**clown whether you like his politics or not. Amazing, really.

Irreducible minimum, I suppose -- some people love roguish personalities.

[Person Man]

Forget approvals, somebody please tell me how 35% of minnesotas could possibly have a VERY favourable opinion of Donald Trump. I mean the guy is a complete a**clown whether you like his politics or not. Amazing, really.

Irreducible minimum, I suppose -- some people love roguish personalities.

It's alt-right with them!

[pbrower2a]

Forget approvals, somebody please tell me how 35% of minnesotas could possibly have a VERY favourable opinion of Donald Trump. I mean the guy is a complete a**clown whether you like his politics or not. Amazing, really.

Irreducible minimum, I suppose -- some people love roguish personalities.

It's alt-right with them!

Nice visual pun there.

I once made a typo for Enron as "Enrob"... and I kept using it.
 

[forgotten manatee]

Trump is going to make a strong play for Minnesota. Hopefully the Dems don't make the same mistake as Hillary. Frankly after everything that has happened over the last several weeks, I'd like to see Trump doing a lot worse in Minnesota.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Trump is going to make a strong play for Minnesota. Hopefully the Dems don't make the same mistake as Hillary. Frankly after everything that has happened over the last several weeks, I'd like to see Trump doing a lot worse in Minnesota.

Trump doesn't have a chance in hell in Minnesota.

[forgotten manatee]

Trump is going to make a strong play for Minnesota. Hopefully the Dems don't make the same mistake as Hillary. Frankly after everything that has happened over the last several weeks, I'd like to see Trump doing a lot worse in Minnesota.

Trump doesn't have a chance in hell in Minnesota.

He'd best not.

[cinyc]

This comes from before the Trump rally in Minneapolis... I wonder if we will get to see how convincing that was in another poll. PPP tends to have a statistical favor for Republicans.

Got a cite for that? 538 says PPP has a mean Democratic bias of 0.3 points. They're a Democratic pollster, polling here for a Democratic client.

That doesn't make the poll wrong. It just means they have no Republican bias, as far as I know.

[pbrower2a]

It was about 1% R a few years ago; PPP tried to be cautious and avoid excessive optimism.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Oct. 3-8, 1205 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

[Person Man]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Oct. 3-8, 1205 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

If anything the impeachment simply means that instead of 93% of the electorate having an opinion, 97% do.

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: Meredith College, Sep. 29-Oct. 7, 998 RV

I don't recall seeing a poll from this college before, so have no idea what their track record (if any) is like.

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Do you think President Trump’s actions justify an impeachment inquiry?

Yes 49
No 41

[Gass3268]

UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics:

28% of Utah voters say they “strongly” approve
17% “somewhat” approve
8% “somewhat” disapprove
47% “strongly” disapprove

Source

[Person Man]

The only way Trump wins is that because enough people are literally addicted to him.

[OneJ]

Ohio, Public Policy Polling (PPP), October 10-11, 776 RV.

Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

Support the Impeachment Inquiry: 49%
Oppose the Impeachment Inquiry: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

[GP270watch]

UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics:

28% of Utah voters say they “strongly” approve
17% “somewhat” approve
8% “somewhat” disapprove
47% “strongly” disapprove

Source

 Mitt Romney grow a spine, this guy can't touch you.

[TDAS04]

The only way Trump wins is that because enough people are literally addicted to him.

A lot of people are addicted to him, unfortunately.

Though I am somewhat more optimistic due to the impeachment inquiry.

[pbrower2a]

Biden leads Trump 48/46
Warren and Sanders tied with Trump

http://innovationohio.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/OhioResults.pdf

The poll was done on the behalf of a Ohio progressive group who wants to promote the idea that Ohio is stil very winnable for democrats and that they should contest it heavily next year.

NB: PPP doesn’t have a good track record in the state, last year they had DeWine down -7 against Cordray
https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

Ohio went for Trump by high single digits in a close race in 2016. In a close race in the popular vote nationwide, Trump wins Ohio decisively. Note that Trump is up 1% in this poll in approval, arguably the first time this has happened. Are Trump supporters rallying behind their leader, or are conservative Ohioans starting to see Donald Trump as the victim of a witch-hunt by the media and the "Deep State"?

This said, Ohio is not going to decide the 2020 Presidential election. In a nationwide election with about a 5% edge to the Democratic nominee, Ohio will be close. The Democrat will need an edge of at least 3% nationwide because some deep-blue (Atlas red) States, two of them gigantic in electoral votes (California and New York) could easily vote nearly 70-30 against Trump. See also Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington. Such, and some small states that will do much the same, implies that in an even race for the President that the rest of the United States goes about 57-43, which means that Trump wins all the swing states except Colorado and Virginia.

Such is the mathematical reality of an even election in the popular vote. If Ohio goes against Trump, then the Democrat is in the range of 355-375 electoral votes.  

UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics:

28% of Utah voters say they “strongly” approve
17% “somewhat” approve
8% “somewhat” disapprove
47% “strongly” disapprove

Source

When was the last time that Utah voters had a 55% disapproval for a Republican President? Probably for Hoover as the economy was in a tailspin, but there was no polling back in those days. Romney beat Obama handily in 2012 in Utah, but at this point in a hypothetical contest between Obama and Trump, Obama would win Utah because he is far closer to Mormon values in family life, character, and foreign policy. Mormons (LDS) take family values seriously, and Utah isn't exactly a rube state. Mormons also take religious freedom seriously because such fosters Mormon missionary efforts, and someone who takes swipes at non-Christian religions can easily turn against Mormons.

I can't speak for the LDS hierarchy, but I would not be shocked if it turned against Trump. This could be one time, one in which Mormons demonstrate that the GOP cannot take their vote for granted.  

Non-Mormons in Utah vote much like Californians, but... I suspect that Mormons are getting sick of an arrogant rogue as President. Note well: Trump actually got a smaller share of the Utah vote in 2012 than did Goldwater in 1964. Trump disapproval at 55% with 47% disapproval means that Trump could lose, especially if a Third-Party nominee takes away much of the conservative-leaning vote. The 45-55 split in approval and disapproval may be an exaggeration, but it is hard to explain it away. Offend the sensibilities of the majority of the people in that political subdivision... and lose it!

Restoring a oll that I dropped:

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher