Trump down in Ohio (PPP)

[Frenchrepublican]

Biden leads Trump 48/46
Warren and Sanders tied with Trump

http://innovationohio.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/OhioResults.pdf

The poll was done on the behalf of a Ohio progressive group who wants to promote the idea that Ohio is stil very winnable for democrats and that they should contest it heavily next year.

NB: PPP doesn’t have a good track record in the state, last year they had DeWine down -7 against Cordray
https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean R if Biden/Bernie are the nominees

Likely R , closer to Safe than Lean if Warren is the nominee

[Xing]

Lean R if Biden/Bernie are the nominees

Likely R , closer to Safe than Lean if Warren is the nominee

Likely R regardless of who the nominee is.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean R if Biden/Bernie are the nominees

Likely R , closer to Safe than Lean if Warren is the nominee

Likely R regardless of who the nominee is.

actually I was wrong but Bernie in the Likely category but closer to Lean than Safe. Only Biden is in Lean catogery

[Frenchrepublican]

Lean R if Biden/Bernie are the nominees

Likely R , closer to Safe than Lean if Warren is the nominee

Likely R regardless of who the nominee is.

actually I was wrong but Bernie in the Likely category but closer to Lean than Safe. Only Biden is in Lean catogery

And even with Biden it would be optimistic. Unless Trump loses the PV by <10 I don’t see Ohio flipping 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lean R if Biden/Bernie are the nominees

Likely R , closer to Safe than Lean if Warren is the nominee

Likely R regardless of who the nominee is.

actually I was wrong but Bernie in the Likely category but closer to Lean than Safe. Only Biden is in Lean catogery

And even with Biden it would be optimistic. Unless Trump loses the PV by <10 I don’t see Ohio flipping 

This is what I think the results would be for Trump vs all 3 dems:


Biden: Trump + 4
Bernie: Trump + 7
Warren: Trump +10

[OneJ]

Also, both Harris and Buttigieg are down 47-43. Their sample also lines up with 2016 with Trump up by 8 and party registration being very similar to that year as well.

I'm very cautious about Ohio being competitive regardless.

[Xing]

Biden wouldn't do 6 points better than Warren in Ohio, lol. Ohio probably goes Republican by 6-8 in a close race.

[Beet]

They also repolled 2016 and have Trump 50% Clinton 42% in this poll.

[pbrower2a]

Biden leads Trump 48/46
Warren and Sanders tied with Trump

http://innovationohio.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/OhioResults.pdf

The poll was done on the behalf of a Ohio progressive group who wants to promote the idea that Ohio is stil very winnable for democrats and that they should contest it heavily next year.

NB: PPP doesn’t have a good track record in the state, last year they had DeWine down -7 against Cordray
https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

Ohio went for Trump by high single digits in a close race in 2016. In a close race in the popular vote nationwide, Trump wins Ohio decisively. Note that Trump is up 1% in this poll in approval, arguably the first time this has happened. Are Trump supporters rallying behind their leader, or are conservative Ohioans starting to see Donald Trump as the victim of a witch-hunt by the media and the "Deep State"?

This said, Ohio is not going to decide the 2020 Presidential election. In a nationwide election with about a 5% edge to the Democratic nominee, Ohio will be close. The Democrat will need an edge of at least 3% nationwide because some deep-blue (Atlas red) States, two of them gigantic in electoral votes (California and New York) could easily vote nearly 70-30 against Trump. See also Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington. Such, and some small states that will do much the same, implies that in an even race for the President that the rest of the United States goes about 57-43, which means that Trump wins all the swing states except Colorado and Virginia.

Such is the mathematical reality of an even election in the popular vote. If Ohio goes against Trump, then the Democrat is in the range of 355-375 electoral votes.   

[slothdem]

Biden wouldn't do 6 points better than Warren in Ohio, lol. Ohio probably goes Republican by 6-8 in a close race.

Some posters just need to believe that Warren is substantially weaker than a "mainstream" Democrat. It's the only way for them to cope with the fact that fiscal conservatism has been completely and totally discredited as a political ideology and has no voter base.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio is a battleground state and like always it votes with the winning candidate. Warren or Biden can win Buckeye state

[GeorgiaModerate]

After 2016 and 2018 I think Ohio has to be considered Likely R, although closer to Lean than Safe.  If the Democratic candidate even comes close in the state, they're likely winning by a comfortable margin nationally.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A 5-7 point Warren-Castro win over Trump is possible

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, it’s probably a little too Democratic-friendly, but I don’t see why we should dismiss all the polls showing a competitive race in OH while taking the polls which have Trump as or more unpopular in IA than MI/WI/PA at face value. I do agree that IA seems to be more fertile ground for Democrats at the state level; however, I really don’t think there’s much evidence suggesting that OH is a safer bet for the GOP than IA in presidential elections or at the federal level in general. OH isn’t just Trumbull County, and Democrats certainly have room for improvement in the state's urban/suburban areas.

Lean R, but closer to Likely R than Tossup I guess.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio isnt R it's a purple state