2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Stop trying to read tea leaves from 7 am morning votes geez louise

No! I need second by second updates!

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If Guam does swing hard to Trump, what would that signal this cycle?

Perhaps the trend that's been speculated on thus far - that the minority gap is shrinking.

But doesn't Guam have a history of voting Republican in the past?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Guam

Guam has historically been more R downballot than in the Presidential straw poll.

Admit Guam as the 53rd state as an olive branch to Republicans. I'm actually serious, and let NMI have the option to join the new state if they wish.

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View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

[7,052,770]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

R's probably need somewhere in the +300k to +400k range to feel good.

Hope you're right.

Tick tock, Trump. Your presidency is slipping away!

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So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

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So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

Have you read the thread at all?

I'm not the most qualified person here to analyze this (for example RI is literally a professor who researches this stuff), but Republicans likely need to finish ~400,000 votes ahead to win Florida and they're not there yet. Maybe they'll get there by tonight, but they're not on pace, and they've probably had their biggest bump of the day already.

If turnout is not going to save Trump, he likely now only wins if one of these widely believed and supported assumptions are wrong:
-Independents prefer Biden to Trump by a comfortable margin.
-There are more Republican votes for Biden than Democratic votes for Trump.

[7,052,770]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

So no elaboration? Simply denial? That doesn't seem like a confident answer as much as a self-convincing one.

Have you read the thread at all?

I'm not the most qualified person here to analyze this (for example RI is literally a professor who researches this stuff), but Republicans likely need to finish ~400,000 votes ahead to win Florida and they're not there yet. Maybe they'll get there by tonight, but they've probably had their biggest bump of the day.

If turnout is not going to save Trump, he likely now only wins if one of these widely believed and supported assumptions are wrong:
-Independents prefer Biden to Trump by a comfortable margin.
-There are more Republican votes for Biden than Democratic votes for Trump.

Where does the 400k number come from?  I agree that it's highly unlikely they end up 400k at this rate but why are you sure they need that much of a cushion??

I'm relying on others. I'm certainly not qualified to come up with that number myself.

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Tick tock. Not much time left for Trump to get to 400,000.

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https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323728684482703365?s=20

Gain of just 16K versus 230

Tick tock

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Seems like GOP turnout advantage will end up being about 200k in Florida.  What does this mean?

Biden is 46!

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This has been the best 4 year period of my life and I’ve grown nothing but more liberal in that time. I’m now on path to have a very lucrative career in a few years here. I’m not going to let a few percentages on a tax bill ruin this country for everyone else.

Just wait and see what Biden's policies will do to this country.

I know, I can't wait!

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NYT Needle points Florida to lean Trump...

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So which assumption was wrong? Independents?

If turnout is not going to save Trump, he likely now only wins if one of these widely believed and supported assumptions are wrong:
-Independents prefer Biden to Trump by a comfortable margin.
-There are more Republican votes for Biden than Democratic votes for Trump.

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What's still left out in Miami? Any chance it will improve Biden's margin?

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Look at that .... Georgia going for Trump. Who saw that coming?!?!?

8% in and nothing in Atlanta...

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What's going on in NC?

Why are the votes so slow?

4 precincts are staying open late due to issues

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Biden way up in NC with over half reporting.... Come on, that would be huge.

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North Carolina looks really good for Biden...

The NYT needle just swung over to trump...

F***

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Thoughts on Ohio?

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Is Texas done for Biden?

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Is there any evidence that the "Hispanic swing" goes beyond Cubans and Venezuelans?

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..maybe Hillary wasn't such a bad candidate after all.

Just sayin'.

It would be a huge vindication for Hillary if Biden loses tonight.

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So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

No?

My tone was out of line, and all 19 recommendations should remove themselves. Sorry Hammy.

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https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/ shows that with >99% of the vote in NC, Biden has a .5 point lead. This might be recount territory.

Amazing if true.

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What's the deal here:
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results/probability-dials