2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[swf541]

Feeling increasingly optimistic

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1323726874112086024

[Non Swing Voter]

We still aren't sure if Republicans need a 400k margin in Florida but if they do they're screwed.  The margin hasn't increased much at all in the last couple hours.

[roxas11]

To me the numbers that we are seeing in AZ shows why Trump made A huge mistake by telling his voters not to vote by mail and instead show up to vote on election day

He bet everything on the idea that all of his voters will be able to show up to vote on election day

looking at the Numbers in AZ so far
we can now see why that was a such a terrible move and Trump is now going to struggle in this state because GOP turnout is so far falling far short of expectations

[GeorgiaModerate]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

Snip!

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

I (a long-term Forsyth resident) predicted Trump 65-35 this year.  If he was held close to 60 it would be shocking, and Biden would be heavily favored to win the state.

Would you say Forsyth is what Cobb used to be? (a solidly-Republican, relatively high-population county?)

That's not an unreasonable description, although Forsyth has always been more white and (non-Atlas) red than Cobb and will likely remain so.

To answer ExSky: I think it's at the outer edge of plausibility, a best-case scenario for Biden if everything goes right.

[Non Swing Voter]

To me the numbers that we are seeing in AZ shows why Trump made A huge mistake by telling his voters not to vote by mail and instead show up to vote on election day

He bet everything on the idea that all of his voters will be able to show up to vote on election day

looking at the Numbers in AZ so far
we can now see why that was a such a terrible move and Trump is now going to struggle in this state because GOP turnout is so far falling far short of expectations

Plus, Dems voted early so Democratic areas probably have super short wait times, meaning less people leave the poll lines.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Forsyth was Trump 70.6 - 23.7 - 5.7 in 2016.  

60-40 would be stunning and perhaps indicative of the type of shift coming in Other suburbs (Montgomery 👀) I don’t think ForsythVoter even expected this.

That'd be a 26 point swing in Biden's favor. That's a statewide win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beautiful snark here:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1323713958008791043

[Young Conservative]

I think people need to be careful about Florida. It is likely there will be a surge from 5-7 in voting.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1323690337152454662

this can't possibly be true can it? 

[Person Man]

I think people need to be careful about Florida. It is likely there will be a surge from 5-7 in voting.

Do we have any information on who will vote in those times?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't want to be overly optimistic, but I'm getting strong Super Tuesday vibes

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323728684482703365?s=20

Gain of just 16K versus 230

[BudgieForce]

I think people need to be careful about Florida. It is likely there will be a surge from 5-7 in voting.

Do we have any information on who will vote in those times?

I feel like conventional wisdom is that democrats vote late.

[Kuumo]

https://twitter.com/AsteadWesley/status/1323690337152454662
this can't possibly be true can it? 

Press X to doubt. Partisans on both sides always try to sound optimistic on Election Day before the results come in.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't want to be overly optimistic, but I'm getting strong Super Tuesday vibes

YOU HEARD IT, GUYS! Biden's winning South Carolina!

[Hope For A New Era]

I think people need to be careful about Florida. It is likely there will be a surge from 5-7 in voting.

Do we have any information on who will vote in those times?

I feel like conventional wisdom is that democrats vote late.

I assume the idea is that Republican retirees vote in the morning and younger, more Democratic demographics vote later.

[Ferguson97]

I think people need to be careful about Florida. It is likely there will be a surge from 5-7 in voting.

Wouldn't this just increase the Democrats' lead since they tend to vote after work and Republicans vote before?

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323728684482703365?s=20

Gain of just 16K versus 230

Tick tock

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems like GOP turnout advantage will end up being about 200k in Florida.  What does this mean?

[MillennialModerate]

Our Progress election forecast has Trump only getting 60% of the vote in Forsyth! Biden also very close to 40%.

https://www.ourprogress.org/president/georgia

Trump win or Biden win - either way let’s give up the Georgia pipe dream.

[swf541]

Seems like GOP turnout advantage will end up being about 200k in Florida.  What does this mean?

Much lower then expected I believe.

[7,052,770]

Seems like GOP turnout advantage will end up being about 200k in Florida.  What does this mean?

Biden is 46!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Trump win or Biden win - either way let’s give up the Georgia pipe dream.

At least you're consistent with your pessimism

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Seems like GOP turnout advantage will end up being about 200k in Florida.  What does this mean?

No one knows for sure.  

And that's not me being facetious.  We really can't know for sure until we know how the NPA's break.