Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[seb_pard]

Keiko with 88% support in San Isidro lol

[seb_pard]

I think Castillo has this because in the most remote areas, he's pulling well over 90% and it's pretty evident that there are lots of remote villages where 0 votes have been counted where he's set to win 95% of the vote or more.

Right, but don’t forget Lima still has tons of votes to be counted, even if proportionally they are a bit ahead of the count in comparison with the whole country (51% Lima, 43% country)

It’s too early to tell. I don’t feel comfortable making predictions. It could end up really close.

Yeah but even in Lima the areas with the highest % of vote counted are parts where Fujimori is supposed to do well (Miraflores with 73.7% of vote counted, San Isidro with 55%, San Borja with 57%, Surquillo with 81%, etc.). I'm pretty optimist regarding Castillo's chances.

[seb_pard]

Is there a good resource for individual district results in Lima? I have two close peruano  friends who both voted for Castillo. One lives in Miraflores and the other lives in San Isdrio.. they both voted for Castillo. They are in the minority.

Miraflores:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/P/140000/140100/140115

San Isidro:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/P/140000/140100/140124

On "Distrito" you can select different Lima's districts

[seb_pard]

Argentina with 11% of the vote counted is 57.6% Fujimori, which is not that high. I would say that Chile will have similar margins (or could be more Pro-Castillo), and the country has one of the largest Peruvian communities

[seb_pard]

Yeah, particularly Miami is going to be a bloodbath, but hope cities like NYC offset that result

[seb_pard]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

They chose the neo-liberal American shill and that didn't work out for them, either.  The extreme margins of the spectrum are kind of all that's left for them at this point. It's an incredibly strange country politically.

More than a weird country, is a place that is still suffering from the political consequences of the terrible events of the 80s and 90s. At least if Keiko loses they could bury Fujimorism for good, is a cancer.

[seb_pard]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

They chose the neo-liberal American shill and that didn't work out for them, either.  The extreme margins of the spectrum are kind of all that's left for them at this point. It's an incredibly strange country politically.

More than a weird country, is a place that is still suffering from the political consequences of the terrible events of the 80s and 90s. At least if Keiko loses they could bury Fujimorism for good, is a cancer.

Can they really? Keiko never accepted her 2016 narrow defeat and tried to sabotage the government. If she loses this, in what looks to be an even closer vote, I don’t think she will just be okay with it.

Unless she really goes to jail but you can never be 100% sure about these things.

Yeah bury definitely would be imposible, but I think if she loses this election the movement will start agonizing, I think this was the last chance for her to get elected. In 2016 the whole left got behind PPK and supported him to avoid a Fujimori government but now you can see a great portion of the right (particularly the economic 'liberals') supporting Fujimori without problems. So, if she can't get elected in this environment, there is no chance for her.

They still have congressional power but I think they will weaken in the following years and Peru will have the chance to return to standard politics. Although I think the current political system is unsustainable.

[seb_pard]

Argentina 46.5% in. 22k votes (20.5k valid)

Fujimori: 57.3%
Castillo: 42.7%

[seb_pard]

Let's gooo! OMG I can't work right now

[seb_pard]

Argentina 46.5% in. 22k votes (20.5k valid)

Fujimori: 57.3%
Castillo: 42.7%

Argentina and Uruguay best American countries, the lowest % of the Fujimori vote is there.

Uruguay - 55% Fujimori
Argentina - 57%
Brazil - 59%
Bolivia - 65%
Ecuador - 66%
Colombia - 72%
Mexico - 73%
Paraguay - 74%
Canada - 76%

Considering the only country in the world that Castillo won was NORWAY, I think, that’s pretty good result for the Southern Cone. Hopefully Chile follows suit.

He also won Cuba 73-26 hilariously enough

Of course he did. I want to know who the 26% of Peruvians who moved to Cuba and voted for Fujimori are - did their experiences there really disappoint them?

Diplomatic envoy?

[seb_pard]

Maybe there not that disliked in big parts of the population as some people have suggested. Is a symptom of the disconnection in LatAm between the elite and the rest of the population.

[seb_pard]

Maybe there not that disliked in big parts of the population as some people have suggested. Is a symptom of the disconnection in LatAm between the elite and the rest of the population.

Or maybe it was a vote against the other side, like "I cannot spoil my ballot and let the other side win".

Yeah totally and in this election there are a lot of people that voted that way, but I think there is some excitement in some groups (particularly poor people) on Castillo's candidacy. Regarding Fujimori, well, her father has a cult following. And I believe many analysts have overlooked that.

Also I think in some way Peru is experiencing a realignment in this election

[seb_pard]

First vote drop in Chile. 2,8% in and Castillo leads 65-35!

Its from Arica which is a border town - might as well be part of Peru!

Except this result is still surprising - Humala only received 23% of the vote in Arica in 2011. There were far fewer eligible voters then so I wonder if many Peruvian migrants settled there recently.

Peruvian population in Chile doubles from 2010 to 2019, so you can expect higher vote across all the country.

Very good results for Castillo indeed, but I would say that we can expect more favorable vote for Fujimori in Santiago and Central Chile, as in that part an important share of the Peruvian community are professionals and middle/upper class Peruvians that will probably vote for Fujimori. I believe most of Peruvians in the north are mainly from poorer communities, but we shall see.

Nevertheless we can expect something similar to Argentina (although better for Castillo)

[seb_pard]

Anyone know how San Isidro voted in the first round? (88% Fujimori in second...)

De Soto 32.5%
Lopez Aliaga 29.3%
Mendoza 8.5%
Fujimori 7.7%

(A few candidates)

Castillo 1.0%

[seb_pard]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

The thing for me is the following (as a Latin American living in the US) is that the Latin American that go to NYC area can go for several reason (despite working as an economic migrant): Work in financial sector (high chance of voting right), but also working in the healthcare sector, academia, NGO and other areas that relatively skew to the left. Regarding Miami, the city became a top destination for Latin American people with a lot of money that want to earn some passive income in real estate and other areas and those people skew to the right.

[seb_pard]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

I think that Miami will do that also but you don't need to make false statements to justify the claim!

States with Highest Peruvian Population:

Florida – 100,965 (0.5% of state population)
California – 91,511 (0.2% of state population)
New Jersey – 75,869 (0.9% of state population)

And once again, the proportion of Peruvians in Miami as opposed to the TSA has almost certainly increased since 2017.

Trying to limit this as much as possible to avoid spamming up the thread: you said "dwarfs". 100k does not really "dwarf" 76k and, in any case, it is strange to me to separate New Jersey from New York.

I was more commenting on the strange assumption propagated in this thread that Peruvians = Miami and that Peruvians in the US are all rich expats with extreme right-wing views. This isn't remotely true. Miami is just one destination among many for Peruvians, Peruvians are very working class and they aren't that engaged with Peruvian politics (see: sub-30% turnout in NJ). Overall, this assumption being propagated has mostly served to misinform lots of people about the character of Peruvian-Americans.

That's the thing, there are serious turnout differences among peruvians (well, that's what I think), but at the end, you know that the typical Peruvian in the US is not the one with a lot of money in Miami but the one living in Corona/Jackson Heights, but the first one is overrepresented in the vote.

[seb_pard]

Now 98% of Chile in (44.8k votes)

Fujimori 56.4% (23.6k)
Castillo 43.6% (18.3k)