Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Red Velvet]

I think Castillo has this because in the most remote areas, he's pulling well over 90% and it's pretty evident that there are lots of remote villages where 0 votes have been counted where he's set to win 95% of the vote or more.

Right, but don’t forget Lima still has tons of votes to be counted, even if proportionally they are a bit ahead of the count in comparison with the whole country (51% Lima, 43% country)

It’s too early to tell. I don’t feel comfortable making predictions. It could end up really close.

[seb_pard]

I think Castillo has this because in the most remote areas, he's pulling well over 90% and it's pretty evident that there are lots of remote villages where 0 votes have been counted where he's set to win 95% of the vote or more.

Right, but don’t forget Lima still has tons of votes to be counted, even if proportionally they are a bit ahead of the count in comparison with the whole country (51% Lima, 43% country)

It’s too early to tell. I don’t feel comfortable making predictions. It could end up really close.

Yeah but even in Lima the areas with the highest % of vote counted are parts where Fujimori is supposed to do well (Miraflores with 73.7% of vote counted, San Isidro with 55%, San Borja with 57%, Surquillo with 81%, etc.). I'm pretty optimist regarding Castillo's chances.

[Red Velvet]

I think Castillo has this because in the most remote areas, he's pulling well over 90% and it's pretty evident that there are lots of remote villages where 0 votes have been counted where he's set to win 95% of the vote or more.

Right, but don’t forget Lima still has tons of votes to be counted, even if proportionally they are a bit ahead of the count in comparison with the whole country (51% Lima, 43% country)

It’s too early to tell. I don’t feel comfortable making predictions. It could end up really close.

Yeah but even in Lima the areas with the highest % of vote counted are parts where Fujimori is supposed to do well (Miraflores with 73.7% of vote counted, San Isidro with 55%, San Borja with 57%, Surquillo with 81%, etc.). I'm pretty optimist regarding Castillo's chances.

True but not sure it will be enough, 56% counted now (up from 43%) and the gap closed a bit:

Fujimori 52,4% (-0,5%)
Castillo 47,5% (+0,5%)

Assuming every new 10% counted diminishes Keiko lead by 0,5% this would end with Fujimori 50,4% vs Castillo 49,6%

I know once Lima is all counted Castillo will probably gain more (for now it’s 68% Lima). That’s why I think the final divide will be very close to 50/50, regardless of who wins.

[Oryxslayer]

True but not sure it will be enough, 56% counted now (up from 43%) and the gap closed a bit:

Fujimori 52,4% (-0,5%)
Castillo 47,5% (+0,5%)

Assuming every new 10% counted diminishes Keiko lead by 0,5% this would end with Fujimori 50,4% vs Castillo 49,6%

I know once Lima is all counted Castillo will probably gain more (for now it’s 68% Lima). That’s why I think the final divide will be very close to 50/50, regardless of who wins.

61% (63% of the nation, 10% expats)

52.4% (49.15%) Fujimori

47.6% (44.6%) Castillo

[jamestroll]

Is there a good resource for individual district results in Lima? I have two close peruano  friends who both voted for Castillo. One lives in Miraflores and the other lives in San Isdrio.. they both voted for Castillo. They are in the minority.

[Adam Griffin]

With 63% reporting, here are the reporting %s by region:

[seb_pard]

Is there a good resource for individual district results in Lima? I have two close peruano  friends who both voted for Castillo. One lives in Miraflores and the other lives in San Isdrio.. they both voted for Castillo. They are in the minority.

Miraflores:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/P/140000/140100/140115

San Isidro:
https://www.resultadossep.eleccionesgenerales2021.pe/SEP2021/EleccionesPresidenciales/RePres/P/140000/140100/140124

On "Distrito" you can select different Lima's districts

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a good resource for individual district results in Lima? I have two close peruano  friends who both voted for Castillo. One lives in Miraflores and the other lives in San Isdrio.. they both voted for Castillo. They are in the minority.

The national results site goes all the way down to the district/neighborhood.

Minaflores - 84.6% Fujimori, 15.4% Castillo.

San Isdrio - 88.2% Fujimori, 11.8% Castillo.

So a very small minority.

[jamestroll]

Is there a good resource for individual district results in Lima? I have two close peruano  friends who both voted for Castillo. One lives in Miraflores and the other lives in San Isdrio.. they both voted for Castillo. They are in the minority.

The national results site goes all the way down to the district/neighborhood.

Minaflores - 84.6% Fujimori, 15.4% Castillo.

San Isdrio - 88.2% Fujimori, 11.8% Castillo.

So a very small minority.

Thanks.. they actually just linked to me that site. I half jokingly told them to board of their houses and have their weapons ready for self protection.

[Red Velvet]

True but not sure it will be enough, 56% counted now (up from 43%) and the gap closed a bit:

Fujimori 52,4% (-0,5%)
Castillo 47,5% (+0,5%)

Assuming every new 10% counted diminishes Keiko lead by 0,5% this would end with Fujimori 50,4% vs Castillo 49,6%

I know once Lima is all counted Castillo will probably gain more (for now it’s 68% Lima). That’s why I think the final divide will be very close to 50/50, regardless of who wins.

61% (63% of the nation, 10% expats)

52.4% (49.15%) Fujimori

47.6% (44.6%) Castillo

Yeah, I don’t think the gap will reduce enough in order for Castillo to win.

It will probably be something like Fujimori 50,8% vs Castillo 49,2% when all is said and done.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

ONPE is at over 70% of the results in. 52.435% Keiko vs 47.565% Castillo. He’s not even making up ground. If these are the rural votes coming in (I have no idea) it does not look good for him.

[Oryxslayer]

True but not sure it will be enough, 56% counted now (up from 43%) and the gap closed a bit:

Fujimori 52,4% (-0,5%)
Castillo 47,5% (+0,5%)

Assuming every new 10% counted diminishes Keiko lead by 0,5% this would end with Fujimori 50,4% vs Castillo 49,6%

I know once Lima is all counted Castillo will probably gain more (for now it’s 68% Lima). That’s why I think the final divide will be very close to 50/50, regardless of who wins.

61% (63% of the nation, 10% expats)

52.4% (49.15%) Fujimori

47.6% (44.6%) Castillo

Yeah, I don’t think the gap will reduce enough in order for Castillo to win.

It will probably be something like Fujimori 50,8% vs Castillo 49,2% when all is said and done.

68% (70% nation, 10% expat)

52.5% (49.2%) Fujimori

47.5% (44.5%) Castillo

Fujimori actually went up. But looking around it feels like this was very lima-centric dump.

[Adam Griffin]

[Oryxslayer]

Map made at 42% in for conveniences sake. Fujimori Black, Castillo Red:



Also, thank you for shrinking the image.

[Oryxslayer]

74% (76% nation, 11% expat)

52.3% (49%) Fujimori

47.7% (44.7%) Castillo

I'm half-tempted to say it's over. Yes the count is biased towards Lima, and yes Lima is at 90%. However the issue with this bias is that the most populous parts of the hinterlands  - some which are Castillo's best areas - are comparatively not that far behind Lima. Like Moquega still has lots of Castillo votes out, but thats a tiny universe of voters compared to say Puno at 70% to Lima's 90. And Keiko still has probably 100K net expat votes to come. She also has non-Lima votes out there, with probably the biggest net basket being Piura.

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1401791618949189633?s=20

^ Jurisdictions where keiko leads and their percent counted.

[Jeppe]

I don’t think Castillo has enough votes left. Fujimori might finally win a second round.

[Red Velvet]

I do think it’s over.

In the last 20% Castillo will close the gap because Lima will be done but it won’t be enough. It will be closer to 51/49 in favor of Keiko than 50/50 after the rural vote is counted.

[Oryxslayer]

77.7% (80% nation, 11% expat)

51.94% (48.7%) Fujimori

48.06% (45%) Castillo

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't say it's over...yet, but it is clearly much harder to imagine a victory path for Castillo than it was three hours ago.

[Red Velvet]

I wouldn't say it's over...yet, but it is clearly much harder to imagine a victory path for Castillo than it was three hours ago.

He would need to diminish the gap at least 0,1% each 1% that is counted considering it’s now 52/48 at 80%. Which sounds the most optimistic scenario.

I think a bit over 50% without the foreign votes is the best he could reach and even then there is a bunch of these to be counted... Something like 49,5% sounds more realistic. I think he will at least reach the 49% mark.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wouldn't say it's over...yet, but it is clearly much harder to imagine a victory path for Castillo than it was three hours ago.

He would need to diminish the gap at least 0,1% each 1% that is counted considering it’s now 52/48 at 80%. Which sounds the most optimistic scenario.

I think a bit over 50% without the foreign votes is the best he could reach and even then there is a bunch of these to be counted... Something like 49,5% sounds more realistic. I think he will at least reach the 49% mark.

"It's over" are pretty weighty words. I'm not willing to use them unless he actually has 0 chance. There's too much uncertainty in the air for me to be able to say in good faith that I think enough of the vote is in there for me to say that.

[Red Velvet]

80,7% overall (83,5% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51,5%
Pedro Castillo 48,5%

Castillo reducing the gap in the margins he needs to (at least 0,1% every new 1% counted) but there will still be the foreign votes in the end... If he keeps reducing the margin in the current speed it could end close to 50/50.

[Oryxslayer]

80,7% overall (83,5% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51,5%
Pedro Castillo 48,5%

Castillo reducing the gap in the margins he needs to (at least 0,1% every new 1% counted) but there will still be the foreign votes in the end... If he keeps reducing the margin in the current speed it could end close to 50/50.

Puno and quite a few other Castillo areas is now ahead of the national count so it may be deceptive...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

from a liveblog I (was) following:
[Google translate Spanish to English, for convenience of all who may read this post, is bolded]
23:26
ONPE
Piero Corvetto, director de la ONPE, señala que el conteo se llevará a cabo en cinco etapas:
Piero Corvetto, director of the ONPE, points out that the count will be carried out in five stages:
1.- Votos urbanos más cercanos a los centros de cómputo
1.- Urban votes closest to the data centers
2.- Votos urbanos alejados a los centro de cómputo.
2.- Urban votes away from the computer center.
3.- Voto Rural
3.- Rural Vote
4.- Zonas alejadas de la selva.
4.- Areas far from the jungle.
5.- Votos del extranjero.
5.- Votes from abroad.

This explains the patterns we saw in the vote count...

[Oryxslayer]

from a liveblog I (was) following:
[Google translate Spanish to English, for convenience of all who may read this post, is bolded]
23:26
ONPE
Piero Corvetto, director de la ONPE, señala que el conteo se llevará a cabo en cinco etapas:
Piero Corvetto, director of the ONPE, points out that the count will be carried out in five stages:
1.- Votos urbanos más cercanos a los centros de cómputo
1.- Urban votes closest to the data centers
2.- Votos urbanos alejados a los centro de cómputo.
2.- Urban votes away from the computer center.
3.- Voto Rural
3.- Rural Vote
4.- Zonas alejadas de la selva.
4.- Areas far from the jungle.
5.- Votos del extranjero.
5.- Votes from abroad.

This explains the patterns we saw in the vote count...

Interesting then that Ica, a Keiko region more populous than the average state, is now the one region way behind in the count. Most of areas are now between 70 and 85% counted, even the previously lagging castillo ones. Other lagging areas make sense if this was policy, cause they are areas like the Amazons or extreme hinterlands.