2018 Senate Rankings

[Heisenberg]

^ My standard for Safe D/R is pretty high. CA's YUGE dem bench + top-two primary (I expect Feinstein to retire), and the possibility of a Matheson run in Utah is enough to justify some caution at this very early juncture.

I agree with you on those. Sooner or later Republicans will win some statewide office (probably AG, SoS, or one of the other downballot row offices) due to the top-two. Can't see it happening for US Senate, but this early on it's good to be cautious.

[Heisenberg]

Here comes my analysis (using MT Treasurer's format).
Arizona - Lean R. This could flip, and is more likely to do so without Flake. Still, I anticipate lower Latino turnout, and I think Flake is favored in both the primary and the general right now.
California - Safe D. Only flips if Feinstein retires leading to an R vs. R general election. Too unlikely to warrant a Likely D rating.
Connecticut - Safe D. Nothing to see here.
Delaware - Safe D. Ken Simpler would be the ideal Republican candidate for a Federal race, but he's better off trying for the House seat in 2020 if Trump is popular, since he won't have to risk losing Treasurer in a presidential year.
Florida - Lean D. Hard to see Nelson lose, but this will be his first tough race in 18 years. If Scott wins, it won't be by more than 2%. But he is wealthy, has Trump ties and the right background to pull an upset if Trump is popular.
Hawaii - Safe D. Nothing to see here.
Indiana - Likely R. Donnelly is in big trouble. Just about everything is going against him.
Maine - Likely D. Can't say Angus King is safe, but he sure is favored.
Maryland - Safe D. Nothing to see here.
Massachusetts - Safe D. Nothing to see here.
Michigan - Lean D. Debbie Stabenow is favored, and will easily defeat someone like Rogers or Amash, both being terrible fits for the state. Benishek, being a yooper, is the ideal candidate for Republicans, since he should do great in the rural areas and has blue collar appeal that helps in Oakland and Macomb Counties. At the best he'll probably Warner Stabenow, but it puts him in a good position to win the other seat in 2020 if Trump is popular.
Minnesota - Safe D. It would only have a chance at flipping if Klobuchar didn't run, but she passed on the Governor's race so she'll likely run for reelection.
Mississippi - Safe R. Nothing to see here.
Missouri - Likely R. Almost Safe R with Ann Wagner. Billy Long and Vicky Hartzler strike me as likely to say something stupid. Sam Graves.... please no, he has too much baggage.
Montana - Tossup. Zinke being picked for Interior really hurts Republican chances. But Buttrey or Fox would make great challengers.
Nebraska - Safe R. Nothing to see here.
Nevada - Tossup. Heller got really lucky in 2012 with Berkley as his opponent. He underperformed the polls (like most NV Republicans do) and Reid's strong turnout machine was just too much to overcome this year. But Republicans still did great in NV in 2006, and that state especially sees R-friendly midterm electorates, so that gives me some hope.
New Jersey - Safe D. Maybe a strong Republican could Democrats spend money here, but with Trump winning, this seat is not flipping.
New Mexico - Safe D. Susana Martinez won't leave her sister. Maaaybe Richard Berry could force Democrats to spend money, but even he would lose.
New York - Safe D. Nothing to see here.
North Dakota - Lean R. I feel good about this one, especially given Cramer's strong performances in his House races, but Heitkamp being considered for the Trump cabinet will probably make this race harder. Polls would be helpful.
Ohio - Tossup. Obviously Safe R with Kasich, but he's almost certain not to run. The possibility of a primary showdown scares me, and Brown seems pretty savvy, even though this is an easy pickup on paper.
Pennsylvania - Lean D. Swing state, strong bench, but I can easily see, say, a Kelly vs. Dent primary turning into a Trump vs. anti-Trump proxy war, which would damage the nominee and lead to a divided electorate. The state does have a strong GOP Senate tradition, and Casey won by an underwhelming margin last time, though.
Rhode Island - Safe D. Nothing to see here. 
Tennessee - Safe R. Nothing to see here.
Texas - Safe R. Trump was a terrible fit for Texas, and Cruz seems to remain popular. Also, the Straight Party option helps Republicans a lot.
Utah - Likely R. Safe R with Hatch, but I put Likely since if he does retire, wild things could happen (like a three way race).
Vermont - Safe D. Nothing to see here.
Virginia - Likely D. Kaine should win. He is now nationally known, and remains popular in the state he delivered for Clinton. Sadly, Virginia is trending away from the Republicans pretty quickly. The GOP remains capable of winning statewide, but definitely not in a Trump midterm.
Washington - Safe D. Nothing to see here.
West Virginia - Tossup. Manchin would be a slight underdog against McKinley or Jenkins but if his opponent is Mooney, he's not only favored, but he's also getting my endorsement (not that that even matters of course).
Wisconsin - Tossup. Arguably the marquee race. Duffy (assuming he runs) is the ideal candidate: Represents WI-07, so he should be fine in the rural areas (though Baldwin will probably still have some appeal for whatever reason), and he's also the type who should outperform Trump in WOW. If Clinton won, Duffy would be favored, but in a Trump midterm, Baldwin cannot be counted out.
Wyoming - Safe R. Nothing to see here.

[Heisenberg]

Why do you all keep saying Maine is "Safe D"? King is an Independent. Yes he caucuses with the Dems but he's not in their party.

Simplicity.

[Heisenberg]

>30% = Lean
>50% = Likely
>70% = Safe
>90% = Titanium

What's with Wisconsin

It's this stupid meme going around.

[Heisenberg]

Maybe it's just my never ending optimism, but I feel this is a pretty likely map.

Ummmm putting Missouri as a tossup and then putting Indiana as leaning R doesn't make sense. I also wouldn't say Ohio is a tossup because at this point it is Sherrod Brown's to lose. Nevada Democrats have a relatively thin bench and I wouldn't put it into leaning D just yet. Wisconsin I think should be leaning D because Duffy will make this seat VERY competitive.

He came out against Gorsuch only minutes after he was announced. Bad idea in a slightly Republican-leaning swing state.

[Heisenberg]

Tossup
Ohio
Assautana
North Dakota

Lean D
Wisconsin
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Florida

Likely D/I
Virginia
Michigan
Maine

Lean R
Indiana
Missouri
Arizona

Likely R
Utah
Texas

I expect 4 GOP pickups and 1 Dem pickup. R+3

So come on, you're now jumping on the Assaultana train? LOL, I can't stop laughing when I see that. How will you all react if that becomes an issue for GF next year, and he wins with an even greater precentage with #Assaultgate already well-known. Do you think his apology was insincere? Do you find the punishment to be too soft? Some people think both.

[Heisenberg]

So come on, you're now jumping on the Assaultana train? LOL, I can't stop laughing when I see that.

You're the only one who thinks it's funny, though.

No? I think it's hilarious.

Glad you think so!

[Heisenberg]

Here's the REAL 2018 Senate map:

If this is supposed to be some sort of parody of Atlas, I haven't really seen people declaring Heller strongly favored, declaring Barrasso to be in danger, or declaring Sheldon Whitehouse to be vulnerable.

I think what he's referring to are the people who think Heller has a real chance because "muh incumbency!" "muh he won even as Obama carried Nevada" and so on and so on.

[Heisenberg]

Also, I don't think Arkansas will open up, the #Rexit rumors have certainly been debunked by Trump himself.

[Heisenberg]

And Wulfric, not to mention, that article is from early January. A lot has changed in the four months since.

[Heisenberg]

Absolute best-case scenario for the GOP:

This seems accurate, except they'd win Montana, and lose Wisconsin.

This. Baldwin is not as vulnerable as she looks on paper, and both Nicholson and Vukmir are lackluster candidates who do not impress me at all.