2018 Senate Rankings

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

>70%: solid
>50%: likely
>30%: leaning

Counting Bernie Sanders and Angus King as Democrats and not Independents by the way.

Arizona moves from Leaning Dem to Likely Dem based on Flake retiring.  Alabama moves from Solid Rep to Likely Rep based on Roy Moore saying "Obergefell vs. Hodges was even worse than Dred Scott vs. Stanford".  No other rating changes.

After the Fox news poll that was released today, I'm growing more confident that this will be the map. Switch the colors of West Virginia and Missouri. 

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, MN, VT, ME, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI
Likely Democratic: NM, MI, PA, NJ
Lean Democratic: WI, FL, WV
Tilt Democratic: OH, AZ, NV, MT, ND
Tossup: MO, IN
Likely Republican:AL, TN, TX, UT
Safe Republican: NE, MS

[NewYorkExpress]

A couple of updates since last time:

Arizona: Safe D: I still think unless Gosar, Salmon or Franks runs, Ward will win the primary...and even then she's a coin toss to win. As for Simena, unless she does something stupid and loses the primary, she should win that, and the General Election, though the margin may vary depending on opponent.

California: Safe D, Tilt De Leon: I think De Leon rides the progressive wave to a lead after the primary, and with Democrats claiming both spots in both the Governor's race and this race (I don't see Feinstein getting shut out without another Democrat, like Steyer entering), I think Republicans stay home after the top-two primary.

Wisconisn: Likely D: Tammy Baldwin looks like she's going to dodge a huge bullet. Still if Scott Walker changes course and jumps in, this could get ugly.

Florida: Tilt R: Yes, I'm assuming Rick Scott jumps in, but the Governor is doing well and has the resources to flip the seat. Nelson could lose even if Democrats hold North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, MN, VT, ME, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, NM
Likely Democratic: NJ (I suspect Menendez will bow out after Murphy's victory and allow Murphy to appoint his replacement, who will then run for a full term and win)
Lean Democratic: MI, PA, WI, FL, WV
Tilt Democratic: NV, MT, ND
Tossup: IN, AZ, OH
Tilt Republican: MO
Likely Republican: TN, TX
Safe Republican: NE, MS, UT, AL

[Blackacre]

In light of today's revelations, Alabama moves to tossup.

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, MD, NM, WA, HI

Solidly Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
VA, MN, WV, NJ, DE

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WI, OH, ND

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, MT, PA, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
IN, AL-Special

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
MO

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
Nothing here

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Solidly Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
TN, MS

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
UT, NE, WY

[Blackacre]

BTW, I need a better word for the ranking between Likely and Safe. Solid seems too close to Safe. Maybe Very Likely? Or Confident?

[GeorgiaModerate]

BTW, I need a better word for the ranking between Likely and Safe. Solid seems too close to Safe. Maybe Very Likely? Or Confident?

Confident is good.  

[Orser67]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, NM, NJ, MN, MI
Likely Democratic: PA, WI, FL, OH
Lean Democratic: WV, MT, ND, IN, MO, NV, AZ
Tossup: None
Lean Republican: None
Likely Republican: TX
Very Likely Republican: TN
Safe Republican: NE, MS, WY, UT

At this point, I'm assuming that all incumbents save possibly Hatch and Menendez are running. Democratic retirements in swing or red states could still have a large effect on several race ratings.

[Blackacre]

BTW, I need a better word for the ranking between Likely and Safe. Solid seems too close to Safe. Maybe Very Likely? Or Confident?

Confident is good.  

Then I'll use it! Thanks! (I'm also moving WV to Likely Democratic)

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, CT, ME, VT, MD, NM, WA, HI

Confidently Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
VA, MN, NJ, DE

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WI, OH, ND, WV

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, MT, PA, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
IN, AL-Special

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
MO

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
Nothing here

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Confidently Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
TN, MS

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
UT, NE, WY

[NewYorkExpress]

In light of today's revelations, Alabama moves to tossup.

Alabama is at least Likely R. Republicans will vote for a pedophile like Roy Moore over Jesus, if Jesus was running on the Democratic line.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Special Election
Alabama:Safe R

90% Safe
60% Likley
30% Lean
Yellow Tossup
Green Independent
Grey No Election

New Rankings

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

No Tossups

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alabama moves from Likely R to Lean R based on the recent crop of polling:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL
Likely R (1): MO (R+1)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Blackacre]

I was going to leave AL as tossup in light of this poll because I expected a shift to Moore, but this was a 12 point shift with Trump's approval staying the same. Moving Alabama to Tilt D for the time being. Also, I'm moving Connecticut from Safe D to Confidently D, which is where it should have been all along.

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, ME, VT, MD, NM, WA, HI

Confidently Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
VA, MN, NJ, DE, CT

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WI, OH, ND, WV

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, MT, PA, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
FL, AL-Special

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
IN

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
MO

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
Nothing here

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Confidently Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
TN, MS

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
UT, NE, WY

And here's a visual aid!

[NewYorkExpress]

Moving Arizona back to Likely D, as while I don't think McSally would win a primary, I can't rule it out.

Also, Alabama being anything less than Likely R is ridiculous. Unless undecided voters unanimously (or almost so) break for Jones, Moore is still going to win.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In a stunning development for the GOP, the Alabama Special is now a Toss-Up Contest:

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (3): ND, WV, AL
Lean R (2): IN (D+1), OH (even)
Likely R (1): MO (R+1)
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Xing]

Titanium D: Flawless Beautiful Claire !!! (D-MO)
Safe D: CA, CT, DE, HI, ME, MD, MA, MN, NJ, NM, NY, RI, VT, VA, WA
Likely D: MI, PA, WI
Lean D: NV (D Gain), OH, FL
Toss-Up: AZ, MT, ND, WV
Lean R: IN (R Gain)
Likely R: None
Safe R: AL (sane), MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

[Blackacre]

The Jones +12 poll, Hannity turning on Moore, and the multiple allegations leads me to move AL-Sen from Tilts D to Leans D.

Also I am changing the top two rankings from "Safe" and "Confidently" to "Safe" and "Very Likely." Because I am indecisive like that.

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, ME, VT, MD, NM, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
VA, MN, NJ, DE, CT

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WI, OH, ND, WV

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, MT, PA, AZ, AL-Special

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
IN

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
MO

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
Nothing here

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
TN, MS

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
UT, NE, WY

And here's a visual aid!

[/quote]

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

As I've said elsewhere, AL goes back to Lean R. If this AR Special actually happens, I'd start the race off at Likely R.  Rs would have hefty edge because it's AR, but could be opportunity for Beebe/Lincoln/Pryor to return to politics.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL
Likely R (2): MO (R+1), AR*
Safe R (6): MS, TN, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

[IceSpear]

>30%: Lean
>50%: Likely
>90%: Safe
Green: Toss Up

GOP starts with 3 pickups, WV is safe R and IN/MO are lean R. Dems only start with 1 pickup, NV as lean D. AZ is the only other plausible Dem pickup, so their best case scenario is a net gain of 1 seat. Republicans are almost certainly going to net seats, the only question is how many.

Still the same, but I'm moving IN to toss up. Donnelly seems to be holding up better than I thought he would for now, but I still expect him to lose in the end.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Here's the REAL 2018 Senate map:

If this is supposed to be some sort of parody of Atlas, I haven't really seen people declaring Heller strongly favored, declaring Barrasso to be in danger, or declaring Sheldon Whitehouse to be vulnerable.

[IceSpear]

Here's the REAL 2018 Senate map:

If this is supposed to be some sort of parody of Atlas, I haven't really seen people declaring Heller strongly favored, declaring Barrasso to be in danger, or declaring Sheldon Whitehouse to be vulnerable.

I'm willing to overlook all of that as long as DC gets Senators.

[IceSpear]

>30%: Lean
>50%: Likely
>90%: Safe
Green: Toss Up

GOP starts with 3 pickups, WV is safe R and IN/MO are lean R. Dems only start with 1 pickup, NV as lean D. AZ is the only other plausible Dem pickup, so their best case scenario is a net gain of 1 seat. Republicans are almost certainly going to net seats, the only question is how many.

Still the same, but I'm moving IN to toss up. Donnelly seems to be holding up better than I thought he would for now, but I still expect him to lose in the end.

You Republican hack, why isn't Missouri likely D and AL leans D?

Wow, I didn't know Sean Hannity had an Atlas account. Alabama is obviously solid D!

[Heisenberg]

Here's the REAL 2018 Senate map:

If this is supposed to be some sort of parody of Atlas, I haven't really seen people declaring Heller strongly favored, declaring Barrasso to be in danger, or declaring Sheldon Whitehouse to be vulnerable.

I think what he's referring to are the people who think Heller has a real chance because "muh incumbency!" "muh he won even as Obama carried Nevada" and so on and so on.

[IceSpear]

I haven't really seen people declaring Heller strongly favored, declaring Barrasso to be in danger, or declaring Sheldon Whitehouse to be vulnerable.

NV: Popular moderate Heller is a very strong candidate™, has the advantage of incumbency and name recognition™, shouldn't be underestimated™, and Jacky Rosen is a weak candidate™. It would literally take a MASSIVE wave to unseat Heller, though I guess Shelley Berkley (very underrated™ candidate) would make it Lean R.

WY: Barrasso is slightly favored, but if he loses the primary (likely), the seat is 100% gone. Even with Barrasso as the nominee, I wouldn't underestimate™ the Democrats. Retail politics™ play a big role here (not in ND, though - that state is just too Republican for Heitkamp to win, trend R 2016, titan Tom Campbell, etc.). Democrats will get a boost from Jon Tester's™ mega coattails as well.

RI: Uh, RI trended strongly R in 2016, and Whitehouse is an uninspiring™ candidate! Fung coattails™! Raimondo unpopularity™!

I laughed way too hard at this.