2018 Senate Rankings

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Some rating changes:

State	Old Rating	New Rating
FL	Likely D	Safe D
MO	Likely D	Safe D
NV	Likely D	Safe D
WV	Lean D	Likely D

[Cactus Jack]

Honest to God I think MT Treasurer has a drinking problem. Unless this was a joke.

It was, but - and I say this will full respect to him in other regards - Treasurer just isn't a funny person.

[IceSpear]

My new map:

The wave is so big that Democrats win every single seat, even ones that are not up for re-election. The wave is so powerful that it spontaneously creates Senators for DC as well.

[Devout Centrist]

^It wasn't supposed to be funny (not as funny as your and PNM's posts anyway ), just like it isn't funny that some people here think MT and MO are as safe for Ds as NM/NJ.

Including AL, my map at this point:

If the election were held today, Democrats would probably win all the green states except maybe Indiana, but it's still early.

Looks good, although I think there’s a case to be made that WV is lean D at this moment

[Devout Centrist]

Eh, I guess that's fair

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With the entrance of Phil Bredesen, Tennessee goes from Safe R to Lean R.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL, TN
Likely R (2): MO (R+1), AR*
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

If Democrats can pull off an upset in Alabama or if the AR Special actually happens, the Democrats can lose McCaskill and still get a Senate majority.

[GeorgiaModerate]

With the entrance of Phil Bredesen, Tennessee goes from Safe R to Lean R.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL, TN
Likely R (2): MO (R+1), AR*
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

If Democrats can pull off an upset in Alabama or if the AR Special actually happens, the Democrats can lose McCaskill and still get a Senate majority.

You think the Democrats would actually have a chance in Arkansas?

[GlobeSoc]

With the entrance of Phil Bredesen, Tennessee goes from Safe R to Lean R.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL, TN
Likely R (2): MO (R+1), AR*
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

If Democrats can pull off an upset in Alabama or if the AR Special actually happens, the Democrats can lose McCaskill and still get a Senate majority.

You think the Democrats would actually have a chance in Arkansas?

M I K E B E E B E

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MN-Special starts out at Likely D.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), AL, TN
Likely R (2): MO (R+1), AR*
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

[IceSpear]

Arkansas in the same group as Missouri? Really? At least McCaskill is within single digits. Any Republican will lead any Democrat in Arkansas polls by at least 15 points.

[Heisenberg]

Also, I don't think Arkansas will open up, the #Rexit rumors have certainly been debunked by Trump himself.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Arkansas in the same group as Missouri? Really? At least McCaskill is within single digits. Any Republican will lead any Democrat in Arkansas polls by at least 15 points.

Likely, but not certain. Don't want to completely count out Beebe and/or Pryor

Also, I don't think Arkansas will open up, the #Rexit rumors have certainly been debunked by Trump himself.

Meh, maybe, maybe not. No rush here, it's still 2017. I'll leave it there's for a month or so and can always remove it if nothing happens by then.

[Blackacre]

Whelp, I missed a lot.

I'm moving AL back to tossup, and adding a new category for MN-Special, which starts out as Likely D. That's one notch below the standard MN race.

TN moves from Very Likely R to Likely R. Closer to Lean than TX, but I'm not comfortable putting it there yet.

Safe Democratic Caucuser: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, ME, VT, MD, NM, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
VA, MN, NJ, DE, CT

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WI, OH, ND, WV, MN-Special

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, MT, PA, AZ,

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
FL

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
IN, AL-Special

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
MO

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
Nothing here

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX, TN

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS

Safe Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
UT, NE, WY

And here's a visual aid!

(MN-Special will be represented by Iowa in the visual aid)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

MN-Special Starts at Safe D.

[Sestak]

As of 7 December 2017

AL: Likely R
AZ: Toss-Up
CA: Safe D
CT: Safe D
DE: Safe D
FL: Lean D
HI: Safe D
IN: Lean R
ME: Safe I
MD: Safe D
MA: Safe D
MI: Likely D
MN: Safe D
MN(s): Likely D
MS: Safe R
MO: Toss-Up
MT: Lean D
NE: Safe R
NV: Likely D
NJ: Likely D
NM: Safe D
NY: Safe D
ND: Lean D
OH: Likely D
PA: Likely D
RI: Safe D
TN: Likely R
TX: Likely R
UT: Safe R
VT: Safe I
VA: Safe D
WA: Safe D
WV: Toss-Up
WI: Likely D
WY: Safe R

Potential Special Elections:
AZ(s): Lean R
AR(s): Likely R

[ElectionsGuy]

MN Special: Lean D

If Roy Moore wins, the 2020 race becomes Likely R. If he gets primaried out, it becomes Safe R. It Jones wins its Likely R.

The ones I'm most unsure about are MT, ND, and WV. In the case of MT and ND, many persuadable voters and elastic electorate. With WV, despite the incumbent's popularity, unsure whether many Trump approving voters can stomach voting Democratic for Congress.

[Sestak]

MN Special: Lean D

If Roy Moore wins, the 2020 race becomes Likely R. If he gets primaried out, it becomes Safe R. It Jones wins its Likely R.

The ones I'm most unsure about are MT, ND, and WV. In the case of MT and ND, many persuadable voters and elastic electorate. With WV, despite the incumbent's popularity, unsure whether many Trump approving voters can stomach voting Democratic for Congress.

Manchin has done a decent job of becoming Fox News' favorite Democrat. McCaskill, Donnelly, and Heitkamp should follow suit.

Dunno if Heitkamp or Tester need to. Donnelly and McCaskill yeah.

[NewYorkExpress]

Minnesota Special starts out at Lean D in my book, while Minnesota-Regular move to Safe D. It's  far more likely Tim Pawlenty or Erik Paulsen run here than against Klobuchar (though Pawlenty seems more interested in running for Governor).

[mcmikk]

All my Senate rankings right here, because I know everyone cares about my hot takes.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MO: Likely R --> Lean R

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (5): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), TN, MO (R+1)
Likely R (1): AR*
Safe R (5): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Not yet officially scheduled

[Orser67]

Safe Democratic: CA, WA, VT, MD, DE, CT, MA, RI, HI, MN
Very Likely Democratic:  ME, NM, NJ, MI
Likely Democratic: PA, WI, FL, OH, MN-special
Lean Democratic: WV, MT, ND, IN, MO, NV, AZ
Tossup: None
Lean Republican: None
Likely Republican: TX, TN
Very Likely Republican: MS
Safe Republican: NE, WY, UT

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Some rating changes:

State	Old Rating	New Rating
TN	Likely R	Lean R
TX	Safe R	Likely R
IN	Lean D	Likely D

Complete predictions for everything

[The Other Castro]

Ratings Map: (Safe, Likely, Lean, Tossup)

*MN Special is Likely D
*MS Special is Likely R (If it happens)
*AZ Special is Tossup (If it happens)

Projection Map: D+2, 51-49 Democratic Control

[IceSpear]

WV: Safe R -> Lean R

[IceSpear]

WV: Safe R -> Lean R

Texas, or nah?

I'd say likely R.