Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[Logical]

It’ll almost certainly be Kast vs Boric in the second round. Honestly with the way undecideds/never-votes look for the second round I’d say Kast’s got it, god help us

People here swear it's going to be a Kast landslide. In Reddit people are sure that Kast is going to underperfom. In a discord full of rich right-wingers (and from where I get the poll leaks) they mostly believe that polls are correct.

So, well, what will happen seems to be anyone's guess. A good rule of thumb is to see whatever the consensus among political analysts is and predict that what is going to happen is exactly the opposite of that. Their consensus seems to be that is a very "liquid" election where Boric and Kast are favored but with not overwhelming support. So, eh, maybe Boric and Kast get both easily over 30? One of them doesn't get to the runoff?

This is truly the most uncertain election

Provoste vs Sichel runoff

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Any report/indications on turnout?

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Link to official results?

Official: servelelecciones.cl
More digestable version: live.decidechile.cl

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Looking at where the votes are outstanding, it will probably finish Kast ~27 Boric ~25.

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49,63% polls counted

Kast 28,64%
Boric 24,44%

Parisi 13,60%
Provoste 12,36%
Sichel 11,96%
MEO 7,57%
Artes 1,42%

Gap between Kast and Boric narrowing as more of Metro Santiago reports.

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58,28% polls counted

Kast 28,52%
Boric 24,71%

Parisi 13,47%
Provoste 12,20%
Sichel 12,08%
MEO 7,59%
Artes 1,43%

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65,52% polls counted

Kast 28,42%
Boric 24,90%

Parisi 13,38%
Sichel 12,19%
Provoste 12,07%
MEO 7,60%
Artes 1,44%

Sichel has overtaken Provoste

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71,45% polls counted

Kast 28,30%
Boric 25,07%

Parisi 13,31%
Sichel 12,26%
Provoste 12,00%
MEO 7,62%
Artes 1,45%

I believe that when everything has been counted the gap between the top 2 should be less than 2%.

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76,71% polls counted

Kast 28,19%
Boric 25,24%

Parisi 13,24%
Sichel 12,33%
Provoste 11,93%
MEO 7,62%
Artes 1,45%

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71,45% polls counted

Kast 28,30%
Boric 25,07%

Parisi 13,31%
Sichel 12,26%
Provoste 12,00%
MEO 7,62%
Artes 1,45%

I believe that when everything has been counted the gap between the top 2 should be less than 2%.

Still won’t do much to shake the SHOCKING KAST LANDSLIDE narrative that appears to be setting in.

Could be counterproductive as it might motivate marginal left wing voters to turn out on the second round and draw the scrutiny of the campaign on him. I personally think the run off will be determined by Parisi voters who appears to have been drawn from traditionally left areas.

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80,54% polls counted

Kast 28,15%
Boric 25,32%

Parisi 13,19%
Sichel 12,39%
Provoste 11,87%
MEO 7,62%
Artes 1,45%

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85,08% polls counted

Kast 28,06%
Boric 25,48%

Parisi 13,10%
Sichel 12,48%
Provoste 11,81%
MEO 7,61%
Artes 1,46%

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How Chilean Antarctica voted:

Kast 34
Boric 4
Parisi 4
Sichel 2
MEO 2
Provoste 1
Artes 0

#PenguinsforPinochetistas

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94,83% polls counted

Kast 27,97%
Boric 25,70%

Parisi 12,93%
Sichel 12,65%
Provoste 11,69%
MEO 7,60%
Artes 1,46%

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99,99% polls counted

Kast 27,91%
Boric 25,83%

Parisi 12,80%
Sichel 12,79%
Provoste 11,61%
MEO 7,61%
Artes 1,47%

Turnout: 47,3% (+0.6)

Kast did better on the final batches from Santiago so the gap remains slightly above 2%. Sichel is less than 100 votes away from Parisi. The second round will be highly competitive although I would favor Boric slightly.

Congress of Deputies results (99,98% counted)

Chile Podemos Mas (Centre right) 25,43% - 53
Apruebo Dignidad (Left) 20.94% - 37
Nuevo Pacto Social (Centre left) 17,16% - 37
Frente Social Cristiano (Far right) 11,18% - 15
Partido de la Gente (Populists) 8,45% - 6
Dignidad Ahora (Left) 5,10% - 3
Partido Ecologista Verde (Left) 4,83% - 2
Independientes Unidos (Right) 2,96% - 1
Unión Patriótica (Far left) 0,89% - 0
Partido de Trabajadores Revolucionarios (Far left trots) 0,81% - 0
Partido Progresista (Centre left) 0,73% - 0
Nuevo Tiempo (Far right) 0,07% - 0
Independent Candidates 1,44% - 1

Totals
Centre left/left/far left:  50,46%  - 79
Centre right/right/far right: 39,64%  - 68
Populists and independents: 9,89%  -  7

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3.67% Reported
Boric 53.44%
Kast 46.56%

It's done. Boric will finish above 55%.

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Turnout went up by 8% compared to the first round. ~1.2 million more people voted in the second round. I think they lean largely to the left so it brings the question, why didn't they turnout on the first round? If they did the left could've won a more comfortable majority in the congress.

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Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

Portugal:

Approve 212 (76,2%)
Reject 66 (23,8%)

In 2021 it was Boric 182 (85,4%) and Kast 31 (14,6%)

Why is the expat vote so left wing? Seems uncommon for latin america

I can think of a few reasons, such as a 16 year long oppressive right wing military dictatorship.

[Logical]

Reasons why people voted no on the referendum.

Disapprove of the Constituent Assembly's process 40%
Instability and uncertainty 35%
Plurinationalism 29%
A new constitution is unnecessary 24%



77% of Chileans still want a new constitution. Only 20% reject a new constitution. The level of support for a new constitution has not changed significantly since the start of the process.