Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Oryxslayer]

Jim- Spin as you will. Harris hired a man who engineered the illegal taking of ballots from old black rurals and either changed them or threw them away. Your “no, do this with the numbers; look over here” “state senator...one stop...blah blah” doesn’t change the anomalies in Bladen and Robeson. It’s sad you’ve been here this long and don’t get election stats better than that.

Plus, you weren’t even responding to what you quoted of mine. Why’d you bother?

“Harris ran behind the local Republicans in Bladen County.”

Harris is clearly a misogynistic sleaze who feels the need to cheat to win, so that’s not surprising.

Do we reallly know this illegal activity is attributable to the Harris campaign though? If it was done in 2016 as well for a different Republican challenger, it just as easily be a local group of hyper-partisans.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1098694422429138949

I wouldn't count on it though. Harris has got all this free press of 'libs steal our seat,' so I doub't he loses the primary.

[Oryxslayer]

It’s a special election so it’s easy to imagine some weird results (like KS 4th in 2017 or SC 5th in 2017), generally speaking I don’t try to predict results for low turnout special elections but I could see everything from a 60/40 republican victory to a 70/30 republican win, but it’s interesting to note that since November 2018 Dems have generally not overperformed that much in special elections

The special election story has certainly got more complicated: pre-2018 it was a case of everyone swinging towards the dems. Excluding the weird CT, it now appears to be a case of constituency type. Suburban and (non-minority) dem areas are continuing to march left, whereas that WWC/Conservative Smalltown/Rural areas are resisting. If this continue on to PA12, we will likely see a Dem surge in Centre, but very limited movement in the rest of the seat.

One interesting thing is that the PA special, and regular elections since 2016 have diverged from the other Obama->Trump states. The PA State house reelected some, but not all, of their dems in old Dem seat that now are ruby read. Lamb of course came from the southwest of the state. The 2019 specials have continued the trend with dems winning a Suburban Pittsburg weak trump seat and a strong Obama->weak Clinton seat in the Wyoming valley by shocking margins. Maybe there is something in the water here, but like I said, the story has got a lot more complicated. So maybe the dems can manage ~40%.

[Oryxslayer]

So umm... Pennsylvania is voting today. Any predictions?

[Oryxslayer]

Why has this race gotten almost ZERO national coverage?

Because it's not competitive?

If the dems get anything above 40% in this seat its a excellent night.

[Oryxslayer]

NC-9: All tied up

https://static.wixstatic.com/ugd/335ca2_46bf8209ab7f4edbb49f30a7293dc901.pdf

https://twitter.com/BowTiePolitics/status/1170526906875355136

I think this poll might not be the best...

[Oryxslayer]

One thing I have been thinking about a lot is the hurricanes effects, especially in relation to the fact dems tend to vote early in NC and that enthusiasm curve. We could be in for some...unusual results in NC03 all because of the weather.

[Oryxslayer]

This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_York%27s_9th_congressional_district_special_election

Which of course is comparable to AL-Sen 2017 in that the Republican victory was partially thanks to wieners...wiener. This is part of the same  session dems win the upstate 26th - the collapse of NY's 2000 map produced some  oddities thats for sure.

[Oryxslayer]

In case you want to laugh:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1171155667765354496

[Oryxslayer]

I haven't found a NYT results page, though it looks like there is one on PBS:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-north-carolinas-special-election

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/10/us/elections/results-north-carolina-house-district-9-special-election.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/10/us/elections/results-north-carolina-house-district-3-special-election.html

No needle

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1171530960707276800?s=20

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1171551296362561536

[Oryxslayer]

If we end up seeing anything weird or outside the MOE of expected results...blame the weather and its aftereffects.

[Oryxslayer]

We got 100 votes from dare county!

[Oryxslayer]

Remember, the EV should come first, and be much rosier for dems then the final result.

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ has the EV for all but Blue Richmond and Mecklenburg, McReady leads 1%.

EDIT: Richmond in, lead now 1.5%

[Oryxslayer]

McCready over performed his early vote from 2018 in Robeson and Richmond.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1171574450074128385?s=20

Also supposedly more important Union's are closer then 2018, but turnout is muddling up takes.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1171576201695158272

lmao that was fast.

I mean the Dems overpreforming in a few areas, but is underpreforming in others that he would need to be winning. Margin might close because Perqimans and Chowan are out, while some red areas Like Currituck are all in, but its clearly over. Like the D's should be winning the Pitt portion if they wanted to have a shot.

[Oryxslayer]

Anson has some E-day vote now, no idea if the votes came from a red or blue precincts in this segregated county, but McReady lost 1% overall in the county.

[Oryxslayer]

Unions also beginning to release  precincts, so expect the total to take  a bigger then expected hit until Mecklenburg catches up.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT has one of their classic data entry errors in Union right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Ignoring NYT's error, Anson added a few more precincts. Still waiting on Mecklenburg.

[Oryxslayer]

McCready's slight underperformance in Scotland is the only reason I’m not 100% convinced that this is over, but it’s hard to see how Democrats lose this.

I think black turnout dropping is the reason for that.

Which is why this is more a battle between Union and Mecklenburg,and only Union is releasing right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Richmond's beginning to release precincts. Warning of caution: this and Anson to the west are very segregated counties along precinct lines, with lots of deep red and blue precincts. Don't infer anything until the count finishes for these two.

Also, still no Mecklenburg to counteract Union right now...

[Oryxslayer]

Bishop now within 5k:

Dan McCready   51,548   
Dan Bishop   46,944   
Jeff Scott   344   
Allen Smith   191   

Most of this is because of Union though, which has already spent half its precincts and likely more of the end vote. If he goes through union and ends up being unable to pull on top...

[Oryxslayer]

Richmond just flipped to Bishop.

Note:

Richmond's beginning to release precincts. Warning of caution: this and Anson to the west are very segregated counties along precinct lines, with lots of deep red and blue precincts. Don't infer anything until the count finishes for these two.

Also, still no Mecklenburg to counteract Union right now...

Richmond still can vote GOP, but lets wait for it to be done.