Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)  (Read 168908 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #1200 on: September 08, 2019, 08:37:07 PM »

This is the guy who's been posting all of those graphics on Twitter for every day's EV data.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1201 on: September 09, 2019, 01:21:22 PM »
McCready (D) wins 50-47.

3% for the 2 third-party candidates.

D pickup.

In NC-03, the Republican candidate wins 56-41.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #1202 on: September 09, 2019, 02:14:38 PM »
« Edited: September 09, 2019, 02:24:08 PM by Nyvin »
NC-9 is going to come down to Union County.   It depends if Bishop can get some where around ~63% of the vote there and if turnout there is good on election day.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1203 on: September 09, 2019, 02:44:02 PM »
Quote from: Nyvin on September 09, 2019, 02:14:38 PM
NC-9 is going to come down to Union County.   It depends if Bishop can get some where around ~63% of the vote there and if turnout there is good on election day.

If he gets 63% there he probably wins pretty easy. The question is if McCready can hit 40%. He nearly did in 2018
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Badger
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« Reply #1204 on: September 09, 2019, 03:54:36 PM »

My only quibble is that the most recent breakdown by voter registration or otherwise he has for early ballots is from August 31st. Has anyone heard any scuttlebutt as to where the numbers stand currently, or at least more recently than a week and a half ago?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1205 on: September 09, 2019, 06:22:54 PM »
National Journal: both parties seeing a Dem enthusiasm edge and Pittenger will try a comeback if McCready wins.
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Matty
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« Reply #1206 on: September 09, 2019, 06:32:02 PM »
This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then
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Xing
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« Reply #1207 on: September 09, 2019, 06:42:29 PM »

Republicans are experts at the expectations game, I'll certainly give them that.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1208 on: September 09, 2019, 06:42:42 PM »
Quote from: marty on September 09, 2019, 06:32:02 PM
This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_York%27s_9th_congressional_district_special_election
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1209 on: September 09, 2019, 06:48:43 PM »
Quote from: marty on September 09, 2019, 06:32:02 PM
This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then
Has to be Oberstar's seat (MN-08) in 2010.
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Politician
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« Reply #1210 on: September 09, 2019, 06:51:23 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on September 09, 2019, 06:48:43 PM
Quote from: marty on September 09, 2019, 06:32:02 PM
This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then
Has to be Oberstar's seat (MN-08) in 2010.
IL-08 is a good choice as well, where Joe Walsh knocked off Melissa Bean by .2% despite the race being rated as Safe D.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1211 on: September 09, 2019, 06:57:42 PM »
Quote from: Devout Centrist on September 09, 2019, 06:42:42 PM
Quote from: marty on September 09, 2019, 06:32:02 PM
This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_York%27s_9th_congressional_district_special_election

Which of course is comparable to AL-Sen 2017 in that the Republican victory was partially thanks to wieners...wiener. This is part of the same  session dems win the upstate 26th - the collapse of NY's 2000 map produced some  oddities thats for sure.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1212 on: September 09, 2019, 07:12:08 PM »
Quote from: marty on September 09, 2019, 06:32:02 PM
This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then

The 2010 HI-01 special was pretty embarrassing and completely avoidable, but it was obviously won back in the regular election. LA-02 would top the list by far if it had taken place a month later. In the 2010 general election, one of the 60% Obama seats like IL-17 or IL-10. Democrats didn't pick up anything higher than a 54% Trump seat in 2018, just for comparison.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1213 on: September 09, 2019, 07:17:38 PM »
Quote from: TrendsareReal on September 09, 2019, 07:12:08 PM
Quote from: marty on September 09, 2019, 06:32:02 PM
This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then

The 2010 HI-01 special was pretty embarrassing and completely avoidable, but it was obviously won back in the regular election. LA-02 would top the list by far if it had taken place a month later. In the 2010 general election, one of the 60% Obama seats like IL-17 or IL-10. Democrats didn't pick up anything higher than a 54% Trump seat in 2018, just for comparison.

Solomon Ortiz losing to Blake Farenthold was pretty embarrassing because a) Hispanic district not expected to ever flip and b) Blake Farenthold
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1214 on: September 09, 2019, 07:38:35 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on September 09, 2019, 07:17:38 PM
Quote from: TrendsareReal on September 09, 2019, 07:12:08 PM
Quote from: marty on September 09, 2019, 06:32:02 PM
This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then

The 2010 HI-01 special was pretty embarrassing and completely avoidable, but it was obviously won back in the regular election. LA-02 would top the list by far if it had taken place a month later. In the 2010 general election, one of the 60% Obama seats like IL-17 or IL-10. Democrats didn't pick up anything higher than a 54% Trump seat in 2018, just for comparison.

Solomon Ortiz losing to Blake Farenthold was pretty embarrassing because a) Hispanic district not expected to ever flip and b) Blake Farenthold

That’s true, but it wasn’t 60% Obama if I recall. And weird results happen in races that fly under the radar, that’s why you get oddities like NY-11 or OK-5

On another note, after seeing that the Trumpiest district Democrats gained in the general last year was only Trump at 54%, that makes Conor Lamb’s special election victory all that more impressive. That seat was 58% Trump.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1215 on: September 09, 2019, 07:47:14 PM »
In case you want to laugh:
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1216 on: September 10, 2019, 07:18:41 AM »
The EV looks slightly better for Dems than 2018.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1217 on: September 10, 2019, 07:33:37 AM »
It’s so interesting how the total number of votes can vary hugely but some law of statistics keeps the partisan breakdown within a narrow band.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1218 on: September 10, 2019, 07:36:06 AM »
I hear it's raining in NoNC-09. McCready is canceled...
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History505
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« Reply #1219 on: September 10, 2019, 07:53:24 AM »
Polls opened at 6:30am, and will close at 7:30pm.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1220 on: September 10, 2019, 10:12:05 AM »
Dan will win.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1221 on: September 10, 2019, 10:15:46 AM »

Bold prediction!
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Xing
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« Reply #1222 on: September 10, 2019, 10:22:27 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 10, 2019, 07:18:41 AM
The EV looks slightly better for Dems than 2018.



Hardly much of a difference in Party ID, and it's less diverse. I'd say that's not great news for Dems. It could still go either way, but I'd sooner bet on Climbing Dan than Happy Dan.
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Gracile
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« Reply #1223 on: September 10, 2019, 01:56:13 PM »
Anecdotal reports of high turnout in Pembroke (home of many members of the Lumbee tribe, a key swing voting bloc):
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« Reply #1224 on: September 10, 2019, 03:29:23 PM »
I haven't found a NYT results page, though it looks like there is one on PBS:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/live-results-north-carolinas-special-election
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