Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

McCready really overperforming in Anson with half of EDay in

[Gracile]

McCready now leads 53.6-45.9 - slowly dropping as anticipated.

[Xing]

McCready's slight underperformance in Scotland is the only reason I’m not 100% convinced that this is over, but it’s hard to see how Democrats lose this.

Strong ED numbers in Union for Bishop would probably do it. Not that unlikely.

[Oryxslayer]

McCready's slight underperformance in Scotland is the only reason I’m not 100% convinced that this is over, but it’s hard to see how Democrats lose this.

I think black turnout dropping is the reason for that.

Which is why this is more a battle between Union and Mecklenburg,and only Union is releasing right now.

[Storr]

McCready's slight underperformance in Scotland is the only reason I’m not 100% convinced that this is over, but it’s hard to see how Democrats lose this.

I think black turnout dropping is the reason for that.

Which is why this is more a battle between Union and Mecklenburg,and only Union is releasing right now.

Having 2/3 of the district's population in those two counties alone will do that.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

McCready's slight underperformance in Scotland is the only reason I’m not 100% convinced that this is over, but it’s hard to see how Democrats lose this.

Strong ED numbers from Union would probably do it. Not that unlikely.

The 20% of Election Day votes we have from there have only bumped up Bishop’s margin by 1% so far. That could be the more Democratic friendly precincts, but if it’s representative, then Bishop’s not getting the numbers he needs out of there

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Definitely an error. Probably added 10,000 instead of 1,000 or something like that.

They had the previous district wide numbers transcribed in for union county, which is why the numbers jumped up to 89,000 for McCready and now are back down to 48,000.

[Xing]

McCready's slight underperformance in Scotland is the only reason I’m not 100% convinced that this is over, but it’s hard to see how Democrats lose this.

Strong ED numbers from Union would probably do it. Not that unlikely.

The 20% of Election Day votes we have from there have only bumped up Bishop’s margin by 1% so far. That could be the more Democratic friendly precincts, but if it’s representative, then Bishop’s not getting the numbers he needs out of there

I hope you're right, but McCready also needs at least decent ED numbers from Mecklenburg.

[MT Treasurer]

NYT calls NC-03 for Murphy (R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race will no doubt be a bellwether heading into an election yr

[Nyvin]

You have to remember Bishop represents that portion of Mecklenburg.  If there's one part of the district he's going to overperform Harris in, it'd be there.

And now it's pretty much down to Mecklenburg to determine the race.

[Oryxslayer]

Richmond's beginning to release precincts. Warning of caution: this and Anson to the west are very segregated counties along precinct lines, with lots of deep red and blue precincts. Don't infer anything until the count finishes for these two.

Also, still no Mecklenburg to counteract Union right now...

[Storr]

First election day Richmond County results flowing in, McCready 50.18% Bishop 49.40%, 4/16 precincts reporting.

[Gass3268]

You have to remember Bishop represents that portion of Mecklenburg.  If there's one part of the district he's going to overperform Harris in, it'd be there.

And now it's pretty much down to Mecklenburg to determine the race.

He represents almost the entire portion that's in Mecklenburg.

[Gracile]

Bishop now within 5k:

Dan McCready   51,548 (52.05%)
Dan Bishop   46,944 (47.41%)
Jeff Scott   344   
Allen Smith   191   

[Nyvin]

You have to remember Bishop represents that portion of Mecklenburg.  If there's one part of the district he's going to overperform Harris in, it'd be there.

And now it's pretty much down to Mecklenburg to determine the race.

He represents almost the entire portion that's in Mecklenburg.

yes

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

It's going to be very close 

[Politician]

Richmond just flipped to Bishop.

[Oryxslayer]

Bishop now within 5k:

Dan McCready   51,548   
Dan Bishop   46,944   
Jeff Scott   344   
Allen Smith   191   

Most of this is because of Union though, which has already spent half its precincts and likely more of the end vote. If he goes through union and ends up being unable to pull on top...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I’m about to poop myself

[Oryxslayer]

Richmond just flipped to Bishop.

Note:

Richmond's beginning to release precincts. Warning of caution: this and Anson to the west are very segregated counties along precinct lines, with lots of deep red and blue precincts. Don't infer anything until the count finishes for these two.

Also, still no Mecklenburg to counteract Union right now...

Richmond still can vote GOP, but lets wait for it to be done.

[Politician]

Richmond just flipped to Bishop.

And it flipped back.

[Oryxslayer]

Robinson's starting their drop.

[Brittain33]

I miss the needle.

[Storr]

First election day results from Robeson County coming in, 5/39 precincts reporting 60.16% McCready 39.50% Bishop (5,171 to 3,396 votes).