The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Any chance both of them are outliers?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Unusually higher numbers now.  Maybe he's actually on an upward trend for some reason.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Possible pro-Obama sample or actual movement in the national polls?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Possible pro-Obama sample or actual movement in the national polls?

...no more bad news from Iraq?

Perceptions shape support and disdain for the President.

Imo, Iraq hasn't been a big deal with people except the peace activists and those who are genuinely concerned with how much money we've spent there.  Although if the Administration is being able to hype the fact that it's been done, more power to them.  However, I doubt that alone is enough for actual movement.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +1.

If there there are out of range pro-Obama numbers tomorrow, there is probably a solid shift toward Obama.

If this happens, any idea why?

His address to the nation on the withdraw from Iraq happens tonight. Which is probably going to change this numbers for the better.

I wonder if it'll help him more than his previous speeches at least.  Those usually hurt his numbers.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

all things considered, 58-41 disapproval in Alabama is really good.

Very true.  I find this quite interesting.  Possible depolarization across the states?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Minnesota State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted September 22, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

28% Strongly approve
20% Somewhat approve
  9% Somewhat disapprove
43% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%); 90% red if >70%
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  139
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 110
white                        too close to call  44
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%   25
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  45
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   108  


44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.

......

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Looks like Montana is following the national trend.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Huh? Wow.

I'm guessing he'll take a plunge tomorrow though.

Any other result will be extremely surprising.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 30%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.

I'd kind of expect the gap to open up a bit tomorrow.

Is it possible for him to actually hit 50 without it being a bad sample?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Up finally.

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +2.

Disapprove 50%, -2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

In their description, Rasmussen notes Disapprove is at 51%, but their chart says 50%.  Typo or rounding?

I would say typo.  There's not much point in rounding out approval numbers.

Anybody think he'll break even tomorrow or over the course of the week?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

And the Tucson jump is over.

Still, not being in the negatives is a good sign.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

That is interesting. It almost implies that the partisans on both sides get that Obama was doing just about anything that could be done, but those people in the middle think that a President has a magical power to make everything better. It explains why some independents swings around so much based on right track/wrong track, based on assumption that the Pres could fix economy overnight if he just really tried harder

It reminds me of that one scene in Family Guy in the Lois vs. Adam West debate all over again. The President is not a wizard folks, quit pretending he is.

Exactly.  And people still believe the weight of the world should fall on him alone.

It's either that people have alarmingly fantastical expectations or Americans really like intervention.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +1.

WTF?

lol.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

New York State (Quinnipiac):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

45% Approve (-12)
49% Disapprove (+11)

Voters split 48 - 46 percent on whether President Obama deserves reelection and say 49 - 34 percent they would vote for him over an unnamed Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1636

Wat.